ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kazmit]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

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This is simply the correction run by the GFS. Unfortunately future runs could end up even stronger.

What is a correction run?

[SunnyThoughts]

I can’t believe the difference in track from these last runs from what I looked at just this morning. I thought Louisiana was definitely safe from Laura and maybe needed to watch 14. Now it seems the other way around and it’s even possible according to the Euro ensembles this ends up even further west than Louisiana. But scariest of all is that this is looking more and more like it has the chance to absolutely bomb out. Will take everything to come together but the chance is there.

I know what you mean. I woke up this morning thinking we may have to deal with a formidable hurricane ( Laura) here in NW Fla...now it looks as though it may go far west of us here. This is such a unique setup with both systems in the gulf at the same time, Im not sure what to think anymore. The fact neither has really gotten their act together structurally (yet) makes it tougher on the models to predict what will happen in the future imo. I wish everyone good luck..and prepare, because who knows where or how strong for either of these systems.

[SouthernBreeze]

No wonder NOAA is giving "best guesse"s too.

Quote from NOAA 5 PM Discussion:
The center is not very easy to see, even on visible or radar
images, but the best guess at an initial motion is 275/15 kt

[toad strangler]

Anybody doubting this season should clock out and come back next June. Laura is set up to be a monster and the general track and calendar say Look Out.

[Kingarabian]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

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This is simply the correction run by the GFS. Unfortunately future runs could end up even stronger.

What is a correction run?

When a model is wrong for a while then finally gets different information and starts correcting towards other likelier solutions.

[Hammy]

Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.

Surprised since it has it going through the roughest mountains. Not sure it can survive that. The good news is the trend has been south today, even some flirting with takikg this into Mexico now, so hopefully that trend continues.

As has been stated a thousand times already, land interaction isn't necessarily bad for a weak depression or open wave. It helped Isaias consolidate. Fay 2008 has been referenced several times now.

It shreds already strong storms, not weak waves or depressions.

Depends on the angle of approach and what part of Hispaniola it goes over--for a lot of weaker sheared systems that have come in from the southeast it's been the final nail, systems that go southwest to northeast or skirt the top have been aided in instances where it didn't lead to restricted inflow, particularly faster moving systems.

Depending on what part of Hispaniola it traverses (the southern portion is far more mountainous) will make the difference. The bigger question is if it can stay off of Cuba.

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

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This is simply the correction run by the GFS. Unfortunately future runs could end up even stronger.

Are you thinking similarly with the Euro, which also now shows redevelopment in the Gulf?

[bella_may]

Gonna be some long nights of model watching in the next few days

[Kingarabian]

Are you thinking similarly with the Euro, which also now shows redevelopment in the Gulf?

Yes. It has started to with its recent 12z run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

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This is simply the correction run by the GFS. Unfortunately future runs could end up even stronger.

What is a correction run?

what he is trying to say is that the model is finally caving towards the others that showed the stronger solutions. which, means that it was likely incorrect the entire time.

[gatorcane]

It is one run of the GFS. Remember it showed a CAT 2 into extreme southern Florida a few days back in one of the runs and dropped it. If the LLC can survive land interaction, there is a good chance we can see some intensification in the Gulf. Lots of questions still.

[Kingarabian]

It is one run of the GFS. Remember it showed a CAT 2 into extreme southern Florida a few days back in one of the runs and dropped it. If the LLC can survive land interaction, there is a good chance we can see some intensification in the Gulf. Lots of questions still.

I think the important thing from the 18z run is that the initial GFS fix was close to the NHC's center.

18z Euro runs in about hour. I'm expecting a stronger system as well in its 90 hour forecast period.

[3090]

Weaker tropical systems are not affected by the mountainous terrains of land masses. However, stronger more intense hurricanes are affected. In some cases, weaker systems are enhanced by the mountainous terrain, due to frictional forces, to help spin up their organization. It sounds weird, but I heard a few pro mets talking about this today. I am not 100% certain I have provided the most accurate depiction of what their explanation was, but the main point is, lesser systems are not as affected by rougher terrain.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS simulated IR. Let us hope it was a one run anomaly:

[TheStormExpert]

The model runs and intensity literally are starting to remind me of Rita in 2005. Assuming the 18z run wasn’t a fluke!

[Fancy1001]

Both Hmon and Hwfr are coming in stronger.

[HouTXmetro]

I am shocked with this latest GFS run, shocked! Is this an outlier or could this actually make it that far west. Is it out of the realm of possibility it trends even further west?

[sphelps8681]

The model runs and intensity literally are starting to remind me of Rita in 2005. Assuming the 18z run wasn’t a fluke!

Yes I agree. Just looked back at Rita track and it is quite similar.

[Audrey2Katrina]

18Z GFS simulated IR. Let us hope it was a one run anomaly:

https://i.postimg.cc/JhXNBWhy/gfs-ir-watl-20.png

Good Gravy! Where do they have that heading at that time? Is that Laura?

[sphelps8681]

18Z GFS simulated IR. Let us hope it was a one run anomaly:

https://i.postimg.cc/JhXNBWhy/gfs-ir-watl-20.png

Good Gravy! Where do they have that heading at that time? Is that Laura?

Yep.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF running. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t end up with a CAT5 in the Gulf.