ATL: LAURA - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

I remember a couple years ago...one of the pro mets stating that if the GFS hardly ever shows a hurricane at major intensity, as it isn't designed for that. So when it does so, its very telling of how strong the system could become. NOw that may have been before they upgraded the GFS model, not sure. I just remember that when I see the GFS forecasting a hurricane that strong..its very unique.

[blp]

Oh boy HWRF looks a little further North this run.

[TallahasseeMan]

18Z HWRF is NW of 12Z through 66hrs.

[cheezyWXguy]

I remember a couple years ago...one of the pro mets stating that if the GFS hardly ever shows a hurricane at major intensity, as it isn't designed for that. So when it does so, its very telling of how strong the system could become. NOw that may have been before they upgraded the GFS model, not sure. I just remember that when I see the GFS forecasting a hurricane that strong..its very unique.

That definitely used to be the case, but it’s been given higher resolution over the upgrades to depict full strength. I believe the gfs showed Irma off of Miami at 893mb at one point

[shiny-pebble]

HWRF, 12z Monday

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF initialized almost where the NHC has the circulation, which should be on or just W of St John’s so the run should be good as long as no COC reforms.

[SFLcane]

HWRF, 12z Monday

https://i.imgur.com/zC1ZAaz.jpg

That’s a north shift from 12z run.

[jlauderdal]

18Z HWRF is NW of 12Z through 66hrs.

Its been leaning right and strong as usual...cant be tossed but beware of model bias

[SFLcane]

Upper keys on the 18z HWRF...

[catskillfire51]

And goes from 978 to 948 in 6 hours but is still more North

[Blown Away]

Wow, it’s the slowing down and vertically stacked strong hurricane that’s causing the N shifts today.

[supercane4867]

HWRF @75hr explosive deepening just off the SW Florida coast.

[shiny-pebble]

Far east;

[SFLcane]

Wow, it’s the slowing down and vertically stacked strong hurricane that’s causing the N shifts today.

Brushed the west coast of Florida.

[bella_may]

Am not liking these strengthening trends... at all

[jlauderdal]

Far east;

Really good setup on that run for a major hurricane in the gulf

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296952191509569537

[SFLcane]

[shiny-pebble]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Both the GFS and HWRF are showing excellent upper level environments in the GOMEX, especially if 14L fails to develop into a substantial system.