ATL: LAURA - Models

[artist]

I'm not liking the much stronger trends in the 18z global model runs. Curious to see what the 18z Euro Ensemble run shows here in about 30 mins. I'm thinking it will also trend much stronger and farther west with many of its members.

Was there upper air data that's been fed into them or is that the 00z?

My understanding is some was, but the next run should have it all.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not liking the much stronger trends in the 18z global model runs. Curious to see what the 18z Euro Ensemble run shows here in about 30 mins. I'm thinking it will also trend much stronger and farther west with many of its members.

Why do you think they’re so much stronger now? Is it just that the gulf is rocket fuel right now? Or something else all together?

The models seem to think conditions will be quite favorable for strengthening when it reaches the Gulf. As long as the system isn't completely disrupted by land over the next few days, chances of a Gulf hurricane look to be increasing.

[FixySLN]

:double:

Is there a track for this solution. I might have scrolled past it at some point, but can't find it.

[stormlover2013]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tFcuP6K.gif

GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

HWRF seems more realistic (track wise) given Laura’s current state

How?? Laura current state isn’t good lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I really do think the reason why the models have trended stronger with Laura today is because they're showing a much weaker 14L now. 18z HWRF doesn't even get 14L to hurricane status anymore.

[gatorcane]

Greetings from Anna Maria Island, last post I saw was from wxman57 betting against the HWRF, that chances of the HWRF verifying are as low as him getting the weekend off, I see a weekend off for him very likely with latest GFS and Euro trending towards the HWRF solution.

You do realize the HWRF has been way off on this storm so far right? Here is a run from last Tuesday of what it thought the storm would look like where it is now. Let’s say it is not even close. I won’t even go back and show the multiple CAT 5 Armageddon strikes into SE Florida:

[Ken711]

[eastcoastFL]

:double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082118/hwrf_satIR_13L_20.png

Is there a track for this solution. I might have scrolled past it at some point, but can't find it.

Here you go. Just hit play after clicking the link and you’ll see the whole run

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 118&fh=126

[Blown Away]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tFcuP6K.gif

GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

At least those 2 are back to their bias’s...

[Steve]

Greetings from Anna Maria Island, last post I saw was from wxman57 betting against the HWRF, that chances of the HWRF verifying are as low as him getting the weekend off, I see a weekend off for him very likely with latest GFS and Euro trending towards the HWRF solution.

NDG = baller

[eastcoastFL]

I really do think the reason why the models have trended stronger with Laura today is because they're showing a much weaker 14L now. 18z HWRF doesn't even get 14L to hurricane status anymore.

That’s a good and valid point. I think they expected shear created by 14l but I could be completely wrong.

[toad strangler]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tFcuP6K.gif

GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

At least those 2 are back to their bias’s...

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

[eastcoastFL]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tFcuP6K.gif

GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

HWRF seems more realistic (track wise) given Laura’s current state

How?? Laura current state isn’t good lol

Check out the HWRF run and prior runs. It has been on point so far. Right now the current state of Laura is exactly what HWRF has forecasted for now.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm not liking the much stronger trends in the 18z global model runs. Curious to see what the 18z Euro Ensemble run shows here in about 30 mins. I'm thinking it will also trend much stronger and farther west with many of its members.

Why do you think they’re so much stronger now? Is it just that the gulf is rocket fuel right now? Or something else all together?

The models seem to think conditions will be quite favorable for strengthening when it reaches the Gulf. As long as the system isn't completely disrupted by land over the next few days, chances of a Gulf hurricane look to be increasing.

It’s hard to argue with that. Even a weak but still held together system could get dangerous quick in the gulf

[catskillfire51]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tFcuP6K.gif

GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

At least those 2 are back to their bias’s...

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

I don't think that's a fair assessment, they are strengthening each run now that they seem to somewhat get a handle on things. EURO at 18z is 985 in the middle of the gulf so I am sure will still be strengthening and GFS is 964 prior to landfall. Lets see if that trend continues and that should be used as guidance in my eyes.

[StAuggy]

CMC def the eastern outlier here... does it tend to have an eastern bias with most systems? Just curious since it’s been showing a sharper recurve recently.

[Blinhart]

At least those 2 are back to their bias’s...

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

I don't think that's a fair assessment, they are strengthening each run now that they seem to somewhat get a handle on things. EURO at 18z is 985 in the middle of the gulf so I am sure will still be strengthening and GFS is 964 prior to landfall. Lets see if that trend continues and that should be used as guidance in my eyes.

Now that data is getting ingested by the models, looks like things should start getting into better agreement, might take another 24 hours before there is total agreement, but the more data, the more reliable the models SHOULD be.

[SouthernBreeze]

in my unqualified opinion, it would seem that the Gulf, as a big bathtub of warm water, could not support 2 strong storms. One is going to have to over do the other. And that's why I think models are having such difficulty, as they don't know how to interpret what the other storm is going to do in relation to this storm & vice versa

[stormlover2013]

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 0&title=13

[eastcoastFL]

What is the UKMET saying? I haven’t seen that one posted in a few days.