ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

What's clear so far from recon is that we have no well defined center where NHC had the coordinates at 5 pm.

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296954976871251968

[StPeteMike]

Structurally I think TD 14 is better than Laura right. HH had no problem finding a distinct center in 14 and it is not far from the current blow up of convection. HH having trouble finding a distinct center in Laura.

The thing is, it has looked structurally better all day today compared to Laura. Even with that, it has been unable to get its act together and become Marco. Like I said in TD14’s thread, I dint have much confidence TD14 will become anything significant.

[robbielyn]

I still say that Laura and TD 14 aren’t acting as if we a moving into the end of August at all. They are both behaving as if it’s June or July. I did not expect this

I don’t think they are behaving like june or july as much as behaving like there’s dry air at the mid levels and a tutt. If those two things were gone it would be a different scenario.

[jaxfladude]

Well, so far Laura is a non event for St Maarten.

May it be so for all it it's path, all things considered. Prayers

[eastcoastFL]

End of the HWRF run is freaky at best... I pray it’s a case of HWRF Over doing it

[SoupBone]

Tired of not seeing 18Z Euro runs. Where can I get the paid version, I can't recall where.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like Laura and Louisiana are having a staring contest.

[eastcoastFL]

Tired of not seeing 18Z Euro runs. Where can I get the paid version, I can't recall where.

I think weather bell

[Hammy]

I still say that Laura and TD 14 aren’t acting as if we a moving into the end of August at all. They are both behaving as if it’s June or July. I did not expect this

I don’t think they are behaving like june or july as much as behaving like there’s dry air at the mid levels and a tutt. If those two things were gone it would be a different scenario.

But then that gets to the question of where that historically favorable conditions are that people were talking about. And Laura looked like it was starting to spin up earlier only to fall apart again in the evening--hard to see how it really organizes if this is the daily trend.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like Laura and Louisiana are having a staring contest.

Lol it does. I’m not sure who wins.

[catskillfire51]

Tired of not seeing 18Z Euro runs. Where can I get the paid version, I can't recall where.

I use weathermodels.com i'll post a picture in a second

[eastcoastFL]

I still say that Laura and TD 14 aren’t acting as if we a moving into the end of August at all. They are both behaving as if it’s June or July. I did not expect this

I don’t think they are behaving like june or july as much as behaving like there’s dry air at the mid levels and a tutt. If those two things were gone it would be a different scenario.

But then that gets to the question of where that historically favorable conditions are that people were talking about. And Laura looked like it was starting to spin up earlier only to fall apart again in the evening--hard to see how it really organizes if this is the daily trend.

I think it’s just a matter of timing. If given the time to develop and avoiding land interaction we could end up with a terrible storm. Tomorrow is the day where the more intense models actually have it getting it’s act together. If land doesn’t inhibit it we should see it wrap up. The gulf looks ripe too so hopefully it doesn’t reach the gulf intact

[Kazmit]

I think even if Laura doesn't amount to much in the next few days due to land interaction, it could still pose a major threat to the gulf coast if it enters the gulf as an organized system and shear is low. If it opens up completely, it will need more time in the gulf to organize, and probably won't be as strong.

[eastcoastFL]

HMON is further south runs into Cuba before running south of the keys and bombing out in the gulf as 922mb cane

[eastcoastFL]

I think even if Laura doesn't amount to much in the next few days due to land interaction, it could still pose a major threat to the gulf coast if it enters the gulf as an organized system and shear is low. If it opens up completely, it will need more time in the gulf to organize, and probably won't be as strong.

I think you’re right. If it gets into the Florida straights in one piece with a closed circulation it could be very dangerous. If Cuba opens it up into a wave it might not be a big issue.

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
8pm 16.8N/62.6W... It’s that little blob, which may be building, way west of the big blowup blob. 16.8/N/62.6 better build that little blob b/c there is no deep convection anywhere around it.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1296968260680810497

[alienstorm]

18z EURO takes it south of Cuba paralleling the southern coast of Cuba then crosses over near Havana into the gulf. The thing here is that TS force winds extend way north into the Keys and extreme South Florida.

[SFLcane]

18z EURO takes it south of Cuba paralleling the southern coast of Cuba then crosses over near Havana into the gulf. The thing here is that TS force winds extend way north into the Keys and extreme South Florida.

Across mainland SFL? Highly doubt that maybe 1-2 bands. The way trends are going and another possible llc relocation to the south again there might not be anything left after the island tour.