ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanehunter69]

Looks like we ...Finally...have a developing tropical storm. On a side note....Laura still looks like it has some pretty decent spin to it. And the wave out in the far Atlantic looks very healthy to me...…(at the moment). http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Frank P]

TD14 looking much better, hints of fanning around the small core, convection building esp on the east quad near the core... still looks NNW to me although last advisory said it was moving NW. .. just don't see the NW motion but NHC says otherwise..... so I defer to the big boys...

[aspen]

Recon just completed its first pass. While TD14 is still a TD, they managed to find a well-defined circulation nicely tucked underneath that convection. Finally, it has a decent structure to work with.

[xironman]

Weak but well defined center. Convection still maintaining while approaching dmin

[Nederlander]

Hot towers firing over the center as we begin to lose vis

[Visioen]

...with the first pink

[tropicwatch]

Structurally I think TD 14 is better than Laura right now. HH had no problem finding a distinct center in 14 and it is not far from the current blow up of convection. HH having trouble finding a distinct center in Laura.

[Visioen]

Oh god when will I sleep again.
Notice I have a 6 hour time difference (2:20 am now), which funny enough also means that every 11 NHC update is at 5 for me, and every 5 is at 11.

[aspen]

...with the first pink

https://i.imgur.com/lVxYvUS.jpg

And the band to the east has significantly weakened. TD14 might finally be gearing up to become Marco tomorrow.

[Nimbus]

I've been following that little center all day, the convection is a little NE of the LLC but holding up pretty well with a pressure of 1009 mb. Trough is weakening a little near the north coast of the Yucatan but still plenty of shear shunting moisture up into the northeastern gulf coast. That trend may moderate some tomorrow and the little low will likely cross the Yucatan near or north of Cozemel. Forward motion with the shear may reduce its effects enough for this to make it to a TS especially with winds on the east side of the low added to the forward speed later in the forecast.

[tailgater]

Recon finding Tropical storm force winds well to the NE of the center so we should have a upgrade soon, hoping it doesn’t go crazy now

[tropicwatch]

The low over Mississippi needs to move or dissipate if TD 14 is going to make it as far west as it is currently forecast. Right now it doesn't look like it is doing much of either.

[aspen]

Recon finding Tropical storm force winds well to the NE of the center so we should have a upgrade soon, hoping it doesn’t go crazy now

Those were in an expanding hot tower. Recon is about to fly into one right next to the CoC; I’m betting it’ll find 35-40 kt SFMR readings in there as well.

[chaser1]

Recon finding Tropical storm force winds well to the NE of the center so we should have a upgrade soon, hoping it doesn’t go crazy now

Those were in an expanding hot tower. Recon is about to fly into one right next to the CoC; I’m betting it’ll find 35-40 kt SFMR readings in there as well.

Agreed. Given the co-located convective bursting right over it's small core, I would think recon should find 35 - 40 it winds. Upgrade to Marco at 11:00 unless NHC is gun-shy and want to wait till the a.m

[catskillfire51]

Recon finding Tropical storm force winds well to the NE of the center so we should have a upgrade soon, hoping it doesn’t go crazy now

Those were in an expanding hot tower. Recon is about to fly into one right next to the CoC; I’m betting it’ll find 35-40 kt SFMR readings in there as well.

Agreed. Given the co-located convective bursting right over it's small core, I would think recon should find 35 - 40 it winds. Upgrade to Marco at 11:00 unless NHC is gun-shy and want to wait till the a.m

I think they will since they said in their last update that 14 should be upgraded tonight

[tropicwatch]

HH not to the center yet but finding pressure drop around 1008mb.

[tailgater]

Those were in an expanding hot tower. Recon is about to fly into one right next to the CoC; I’m betting it’ll find 35-40 kt SFMR readings in there as well.

Agreed. Given the co-located convective bursting right over it's small core, I would think recon should find 35 - 40 it winds. Upgrade to Marco at 11:00 unless NHC is gun-shy and want to wait till the a.m

I think they will since they said in their last update that 14 should be upgraded tonight

Yep more 40 mph winds near the center and lower pressure also

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we should have Marco at the next advisory...that supports 35-40 kt.

[alan1961]

Oh god when will I sleep again.
Notice I have a 6 hour time difference (2:20 am now), which funny enough also means that every 11 NHC update is at 5 for me, and every 5 is at 11.

haha..i'm just west of you in England so at least we can get up and make a start on the storm threads before the posting begins to build up too much , I need to get some sleep too

[aspen]

And there we go, 35 kt FL and SFMR winds in the hot tower near the CoC. Looks like another tiny Marco has arrived.