ATL: LAURA - Models

[South Texas Storms]

Wow 18z Euro Ensemble is stronger and much farther SW. Majority of members are heading towards south TX or maybe even NE Mexico.

[Ken711]

Wow 18z Euro Ensemble is stronger and much farther SW. Majority of members are heading towards south TX or maybe even NE Mexico.

Is there stronger ridging that would push it farther west?

[South Texas Storms]

Wow 18z Euro Ensemble is stronger and much farther SW. Majority of members are heading towards south TX or maybe even NE Mexico.

Is there stronger ridging that would push it farther west?

Yep that's what it looks like along with it being weaker and farther south than expected so far.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

At least those 2 are back to their bias’s...

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

I don't think that's a fair assessment, they are strengthening each run now that they seem to somewhat get a handle on things. EURO at 18z is 985 in the middle of the gulf so I am sure will still be strengthening and GFS is 964 prior to landfall. Lets see if that trend continues and that should be used as guidance in my eyes.

I think it's very much a fair assessment. This is not a great outlook for either model should both fail to pick up a significant hurricane until 90 hours before it happens - for the second time this year (first being Hanna).

Heck, the CMC picked it up before the GFS and ECMWF!

[catskillfire51]

What is the UKMET saying? I haven’t seen that one posted in a few days.

does nothing with 14 and takes Laura through the islands and then curves up to louisiana as a weak tropical storm

[cp79]

CMC def the eastern outlier here... does it tend to have an eastern bias with most systems? Just curious since it’s been showing a sharper recurve recently.

Their run was from before noon when all the other models were showing panhandle landfalls. It’s been a major westerly shift since the 12z. I’m guessing they’ll adjust at 12.

I do think the stronger the storm the quicker it’ll turn as the HWRF suggests. The reason for the more westerly tracks has been because it’s goijg to stay weak as it goes over the islands. The HWRF is further East because it gets it to hurricane status rather quickly.

[catskillfire51]

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

I don't think that's a fair assessment, they are strengthening each run now that they seem to somewhat get a handle on things. EURO at 18z is 985 in the middle of the gulf so I am sure will still be strengthening and GFS is 964 prior to landfall. Lets see if that trend continues and that should be used as guidance in my eyes.

I think it's very much a fair assessment. This is not a great outlook for either model should both fail to pick up a significant hurricane until 90 hours before it happens - for the second time this year (first being Hanna).

I hear ya i have been watching this all diligently and I thought we had it figured out till today but if HWRF is 932 and EURO is 985 but it ends up at 955 did they all fail?

[toad strangler]

At least those 2 are back to their bias’s...

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

I don't think that's a fair assessment, they are strengthening each run now that they seem to somewhat get a handle on things. EURO at 18z is 985 in the middle of the gulf so I am sure will still be strengthening and GFS is 964 prior to landfall. Lets see if that trend continues and that should be used as guidance in my eyes.

I think it's more than fair. We can agree to disagree. The tropics have been a struggle for both of them this season so far. I don't give many points to them for playing catch up, which they are doing now. The script is still being written though.

[eastcoastFL]

Just for perspective this is what the HWRF had forecasted the IR presentation to look like right now. If you look at the current IR it’s pretty spot on




This is what it expects in 12 hours




It’s been pretty spot on. I don’t know about the monster In the gulf but short term it’s got a handle so far so we should keep in mind what and when the expectations are.

[Hammy]

CMC def the eastern outlier here... does it tend to have an eastern bias with most systems? Just curious since it’s been showing a sharper recurve recently.

Seems like it. Just about every storm I remember it's always had a right bias to the track, in the rare event it doesn't, always lags behind the track trends (it was one of the last models to show Dorian staying offshore of Florida)

[catskillfire51]

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

I don't think that's a fair assessment, they are strengthening each run now that they seem to somewhat get a handle on things. EURO at 18z is 985 in the middle of the gulf so I am sure will still be strengthening and GFS is 964 prior to landfall. Lets see if that trend continues and that should be used as guidance in my eyes.

I think it's more than fair. We can agree to disagree. The tropics have been a struggle for both of them this season so far. I don't give many points to them for playing catch up, which they are doing now. The script is still being written though.

Yeah I'm not arguing by any means, sorry if it came off that way. I watched during hannah as well and yeah they fell on their face but for instance tonight the hwrf and hmon are still going to nola/alabama but the others are going further west. like you said script is still being written. I hope something lines out soon though.

[Horn1991]

Wow 18z Euro Ensemble is stronger and much farther SW. Majority of members are heading towards south TX or maybe even NE Mexico.

What?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't think that's a fair assessment, they are strengthening each run now that they seem to somewhat get a handle on things. EURO at 18z is 985 in the middle of the gulf so I am sure will still be strengthening and GFS is 964 prior to landfall. Lets see if that trend continues and that should be used as guidance in my eyes.

I think it's very much a fair assessment. This is not a great outlook for either model should both fail to pick up a significant hurricane until 90 hours before it happens - for the second time this year (first being Hanna).

I hear ya i have been watching this all diligently and I thought we had it figured out till today but if HWRF is 932 and EURO is 985 but it ends up at 955 did they all fail?

Not at all, because at least the HWRF was consistent in showing that there'd be a hurricane in the Gulf. The Euro and GFS, until today showed absolutely nothing - not even a tropical depression - throughout the entire forecast period. Now, 90 hours out, they're finally showing what all the other "less" reliable models have been showing for days: a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. If that does happen, that's unacceptably poor, IMO.

[stormlover2013]

Euro ensembles control, west of Galveston

[NDG]

Greetings from Anna Maria Island, last post I saw was from wxman57 betting against the HWRF, that chances of the HWRF verifying are as low as him getting the weekend off, I see a weekend off for him very likely with latest GFS and Euro trending towards the HWRF solution.

You do realize the HWRF has been way off on this storm so far right? Here is a run from last Tuesday of what it thought the storm would look like where it is now. Let’s say it is not even close. I won’t even go back and show the multiple CAT 5 Armageddon strikes into SE Florida:

https://i.imgur.com/abjD6Uw.gif

This is the part when I use my brains, I never believed it when it blew it up in this area in its long range forecast, and you can go through my posts. That model doesn’t do well when conditions are not perfect, when SAL is nearby. But when it blows it up consistently when even global models show a fairly good upper level environment with no SAL around that’s when I put stock on it. It may not blow up to a Cat 4 like it shows but it surely will not be a weak hurricane.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow 18z Euro Ensemble is stronger and much farther SW. Majority of members are heading towards south TX or maybe even NE Mexico.

What?

The majority of the 18z Euro Ensemble members shifted westward to TX. Many are also much stronger with it now as well.

[StAuggy]

CMC def the eastern outlier here... does it tend to have an eastern bias with most systems? Just curious since it’s been showing a sharper recurve recently.

Seems like it. Just about every storm I remember it's always had a right bias to the track, in the rare event it doesn't, always lags behind the track trends (it was one of the last models to show Dorian staying offshore of Florida)

Your right on the Dorian lag... I remember that now as I was visiting my parents and dealing with deciding to evacuate them or not once the turn became a consensus

[CrazyC83]

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=13&year=2020&title=13

I'd expect another leftward shift in the official forecast. Not nearly as far as the Euro, but lined up for south-central Louisiana.

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tFcuP6K.gif

GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

At least those 2 are back to their bias’s...

Man what an epic medium range FAIL for both the GFS and the Euro if either one of these systems blow up.

Looks possible that neither one will blow up. What a bit win it could be for them both.

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

Greetings from Anna Maria Island, last post I saw was from wxman57 betting against the HWRF, that chances of the HWRF verifying are as low as him getting the weekend off, I see a weekend off for him very likely with latest GFS and Euro trending towards the HWRF solution.

You do realize the HWRF has been way off on this storm so far right? Here is a run from last Tuesday of what it thought the storm would look like where it is now. Let’s say it is not even close. I won’t even go back and show the multiple CAT 5 Armageddon strikes into SE Florida:

https://i.imgur.com/abjD6Uw.gif

This is the part when I use my brains, I never believed it when it blew it up in this area in its long range forecast, and you can go through my posts. That model doesn’t do well when conditions are not perfect, when SAL is nearby. But when it blows it up consistently when even global models show a fairly good upper level environment with no SAL around that’s when I put stock on it. It may not blow up to a Cat 4 like it shows but it surely will not be a weak hurricane.

Or it may not even become a Hurricane. What about that option?