ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

I'm starting to get Erika vibes...with the difference being a bomb factory awaits downstream, IF it can get there.

Which Erika?

2015 presumably. Setup is remarkably similar though the tilt of the trough and Pacific convection were, if I'm not mistaken, producing more westerly shear where Laura is dealing with more southerly shear.




Regarding the track, the CMC appears that it's forecasting Laura to pick up some vorticity from Hispaniola which is where the direction of approach matters--Erika came in from the southeast and moved in right over the highest terrain.

[psyclone]

Levi's video definitely makes you not want to ignore this system. the old "keep checking back" philosophy definitely applies.

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to get Erika vibes...with the difference being a bomb factory awaits downstream, IF it can get there.

Which Erika?

2015 presumably. Setup is remarkably similar though the tilt of the trough and Pacific convection were, if I'm not mistaken, producing more westerly shear where Laura is dealing with more southerly shear.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2015al05/16kmgwvp/2015al05_16kmgwvp_201508272045.gif
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/16kmgwvp/2020al13_16kmgwvp_202008220010.gif

Regarding the track, the CMC appears that it's forecasting Laura to pick up some vorticity from Hispaniola which is where the direction of approach matters--Erika came in from the southeast and moved in right over the highest terrain.

https://i.imgur.com/SoXrf8n.gif

Correct 2015 was what my thought was. But as we saw with Harvey, we can't rule anything out even if it enters the Gulf as a wave.

[Hammy]

Which Erika?

2015 presumably. Setup is remarkably similar though the tilt of the trough and Pacific convection were, if I'm not mistaken, producing more westerly shear where Laura is dealing with more southerly shear.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2015al05/16kmgwvp/2015al05_16kmgwvp_201508272045.gif
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/16kmgwvp/2020al13_16kmgwvp_202008220010.gif

Regarding the track, the CMC appears that it's forecasting Laura to pick up some vorticity from Hispaniola which is where the direction of approach matters--Erika came in from the southeast and moved in right over the highest terrain.

https://i.imgur.com/SoXrf8n.gif

Correct 2015 was what my thought was. But as we saw with Harvey, we can't rule anything out even if it enters the Gulf as a wave.

It's always interesting though to see how similar patterns can end up with completely different solutions. Having two systems possibly interacting adds another interesting ingredient.

[Steve]

Laura is not looking good tonight that is for sure. Take a look at the SAL that is ahead and that she is surrounded by currently. Notice the deep reds indicating a very dry and stable airmass. That SAL was noticeable in South Florida today with widespread hazy skies so it is expansive. I do believe mid-level shear is allowing this SAL to infiltrate the system dissipating convection. Land interaction comes next. It is quite possible not much will be left if she makes it into the Gulf between land interaction and the SAL:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZndyB8Hr/tropical-ge-14km-wv.gif

Updated image with the upper trough to the west of Laura the NHC mentioned in the discussion. That is also giving her problems with SW winds penetrating the dry air into any "center" that exists though she may not even have one at this point, likely a wave.

Loop image to see this all in motion:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

https://i.postimg.cc/4dKDrPXk/tropical-ge-14km-wv.gif

Levi was more wait until around Puerto Rico to see what happens. Nothing is unexpected right now.

[stormwatcher95]

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/73sA6z5.jpg

Center looks to be at 16.4N 60.7W if that accurately shows it.

[wjs3]

https://i.imgur.com/73sA6z5.jpg

Center looks to be at 16.4N 60.7W if that accurately shows it.

Yeah...recon really wouldn't confirm that.

[DocB]

Oh my gosh, I post NOTHING and feel compelled to post this ( not only because of repeated questions here but because of ridiculous nonsense on other social media platforms).

The Fujhiwara Effect is a NON-ISSUE with these storms. It is a phenomenon RARELY seen when Pacific tropical cyclones track in close proximity in the absence of other predominant steering forces.

In the GOM, with ridges, troughs, land interaction...NOT going to happen.

That is all.

Sorry for the interruption


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Steve]

Oh my gosh, I post NOTHING and feel compelled to post this ( not only because of repeated questions here but because of ridiculous nonsense on other social media platforms).

The Fujhiwara Effect is a NON-ISSUE with these storms. It is a phenomenon RARELY seen when Pacific tropical cyclones track in close proximity in the absence of other predominant steering forces.

In the GOM, with ridges, troughs, land interaction...NOT going to happen.

That is all.

Sorry for the interruption


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You safely on the road to the white-hot dessert yet Doc?

[DocB]

Tomorrow. I’m going to stay 24-36 hours ahead of both of them barring a mechanical problem. What could possibly go wrong?!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

There are eddys everywhere. just have to keep watching. the circ from earlier east of Guadelupe is still rotating north. but that convection east of PR looks like some increasing low level curvature.

so we wait..

[StPeteMike]

Laura is not looking good tonight that is for sure. Take a look at the SAL that is ahead and that she is surrounded by currently. Notice the deep reds indicating a very dry and stable airmass. That SAL was noticeable in South Florida today with widespread hazy skies so it is expansive. I do believe mid-level shear is allowing this SAL to infiltrate the system dissipating convection. Land interaction comes next. It is quite possible not much will be left if she makes it into the Gulf between land interaction and the SAL:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZndyB8Hr/tropical-ge-14km-wv.gif

Updated image with the upper trough to the west of Laura the NHC mentioned in the discussion. That is also giving her problems with SW winds penetrating the dry air into any "center" that exists though she may not even have one at this point, likely a wave.

Loop image to see this all in motion:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

https://i.postimg.cc/4dKDrPXk/tropical-ge-14km-wv.gif

Levi was more wait until around Puerto Rico to see what happens. Nothing is unexpected right now.

Irene suffered through the same at the very beginning, then the SAL cleared out pretty fast and she got going just near PR. Same will likely happen with Laura.

[Hammy]

Updated image with the upper trough to the west of Laura the NHC mentioned in the discussion. That is also giving her problems with SW winds penetrating the dry air into any "center" that exists though she may not even have one at this point, likely a wave.

Loop image to see this all in motion:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

https://i.postimg.cc/4dKDrPXk/tropical-ge-14km-wv.gif

Levi was more wait until around Puerto Rico to see what happens. Nothing is unexpected right now.

Irene suffered through the same at the very beginning, then the SAL cleared out pretty fast and she got going just near PR. Same will likely happen with Laura.

Nice thing is we'll have high resolution radar coverage now for the next day which should capture whatever changes it goes through--and tomorrow seems like it's the make or break day.

[supercane4867]

This may end up heading south of Cuba or crossing the entire island.

[Steve]

Slight track nudge south moving the end of the run from the Mouth of the MS River to around Grand Isle
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[gfsperpendicular]

Darn I wish recon had gone to the east a bit. Doesn't look like the current plane is gonna be very helpful so we might not have information on that for a while.

[CrazyC83]

Even if it opens up into a wave, we still need to monitor what would be the remnants of Laura. There's no reason why it couldn't redevelop in the Gulf...

[Kazmit]

Another south shift.

[ElectricStorm]

Another south shift.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/025918-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

wow NHC has it going right over the islands, yet still getting to hurricane strength in the gulf...interesting