ATL: LAURA - Models

[Steve]

Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?

Maybe buried somewhere. GFS should be running now. Then Canadian in about 35-45 minutes. Hurricane models run after that. And finally European kicks in after 12:30am or so. Fortunately we don't have to wait for like 240 hours for what we want to see.

[txag2005]

Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?

https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fglossary

Thanks

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 36 is now following the 18z Euro:

[eastcoastFL]

Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?

Maybe buried somewhere. GFS should be running now. Then Canadian in about 35-45 minutes. Hurricane models run after that. And finally European kicks in after 12:30am or so. Fortunately we don't have to wait for like 240 hours for what we want to see.

Do you have access to the pay sites? Gfs hasn’t started yet on tidbits. I’m curious where the track goes with the islands. I think it’ll go right through them and hopefully open up.

[catskillfire51]

Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?

Maybe buried somewhere. GFS should be running now. Then Canadian in about 35-45 minutes. Hurricane models run after that. And finally European kicks in after 12:30am or so. Fortunately we don't have to wait for like 240 hours for what we want to see.

Do you have access to the pay sites? Gfs hasn’t started yet on tidbits. I’m curious where the track goes with the islands. I think it’ll go right through them and hopefully open up.

it's working for me

[Kingarabian]

Maybe a bit more north compared to the 18z Euro. I think much more land interaction on this run:
00z GFS hours 24-48:


Unfortunately something came up and I cant post the rest of the 00z GFS. If someone wants to provide updates on the run please feel free to do so.

[eastcoastFL]

Maybe buried somewhere. GFS should be running now. Then Canadian in about 35-45 minutes. Hurricane models run after that. And finally European kicks in after 12:30am or so. Fortunately we don't have to wait for like 240 hours for what we want to see.

Do you have access to the pay sites? Gfs hasn’t started yet on tidbits. I’m curious where the track goes with the islands. I think it’ll go right through them and hopefully open up.

it's working for me

I see it now. No bueno, it’s riding Cuba to the north after surviving Hispaniola. I was hoping it would open up across one of those two...

[Kazmit]

Looks closed on the GFS entering the gulf...

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like it struggles a bit with Hispaniola



But then starts to strengthen as it skims the Cuban coast

[eastcoastFL]

Weak TS entering the gulf

[eastcoastFL]

[supercane4867]

Looks like 1900 Hurricane track possible on 00z GFS.

[SouthernBreeze]

Looks like it struggles a bit with Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082200/gfs_ir_watl_8.png

But then starts to strengthen as it skims the Cuban coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082200/gfs_ir_watl_9.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082200/gfs_ir_watl_11.png

Certainly not south of Cuba on that run!

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely much weaker this run. 18z probably was probably a fluke and land interaction surely didn’t help.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Goes directly through Cuba instead of just north of it, thus weaker. Probably won't be a significant hurricane again this run.

[supercane4867]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely much weaker this run. 18z probably was probably a fluke and land interaction surely didn’t help.

18z wasn't a fluke, the only difference here is positioning by like 20-50 miles more to the south.

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up actually going south of Cuba at the rate things are trending.

EDIT: 108 hours has a Cat 2 hurricane.

[Kazmit]

Hoo boy

[SouthernBreeze]

https://i.imgur.com/FPS8F6c.png

Marco is nowhere to be seen here?

[supercane4867]

00z GFS Rapidly intensifying on approach.