SouthernBreeze wrote:supercane4867 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FPS8F6c.png
Marco is nowhere to be seen here?
Marco has dissipated by this point. A naked swirl into Central Texas coast.
ATL: LAURA - Models
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Marco has dissipated by this point. A naked swirl into Central Texas coast.
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
supercane4867 wrote:Looks like 1900 Hurricane track possible on 00z GFS.
Looks like it's either going to slam into SW Louisiana or SE Texas.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
That’s not good and with the gfs under doing storms since being recalibrated this could get bad.
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supercane4867
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catskillfire51
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
edit
Last edited by catskillfire51 on Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Possible major hurricane landfall.
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
supercane4867 wrote:SouthernBreeze wrote:supercane4867 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FPS8F6c.png
Marco is nowhere to be seen here?
Marco has dissipated by this point. A naked swirl into Central Texas coast.
Poor Marco didn’t stand a chance!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
GFS hits the Triangle at 969 Thursday 1am or so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Now I’m really curious what the hurricane models have to say. Last run they were 934mb and 922mb heading for bama/fl border. This gfs run is ugly for TX/la
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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supercane4867
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Steve wrote:GFS hits the Triangle at 969 Thursday 1am or so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126
Is that about where Rita hit?
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South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
0z UKMET shifts much farther west and stronger into TX.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 72.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 36 18.9N 74.3W 1006 32
0000UTC 24.08.2020 48 19.5N 77.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 24.08.2020 60 20.8N 81.4W 1002 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 72 22.3N 85.1W 999 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 84 23.6N 88.6W 994 50
0000UTC 26.08.2020 96 24.8N 91.8W 987 51
1200UTC 26.08.2020 108 26.1N 94.7W 979 63
0000UTC 27.08.2020 120 27.4N 96.8W 961 77
1200UTC 27.08.2020 132 29.3N 97.7W 967 54
0000UTC 28.08.2020 144 32.0N 97.4W 970 51
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 72.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 36 18.9N 74.3W 1006 32
0000UTC 24.08.2020 48 19.5N 77.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 24.08.2020 60 20.8N 81.4W 1002 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 72 22.3N 85.1W 999 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 84 23.6N 88.6W 994 50
0000UTC 26.08.2020 96 24.8N 91.8W 987 51
1200UTC 26.08.2020 108 26.1N 94.7W 979 63
0000UTC 27.08.2020 120 27.4N 96.8W 961 77
1200UTC 27.08.2020 132 29.3N 97.7W 967 54
0000UTC 28.08.2020 144 32.0N 97.4W 970 51
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
With two GFS runs showing a MH, I'm curious to see if the 0z Euro will be stronger as well.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
SouthernBreeze wrote:supercane4867 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/FPS8F6c.png
Marco is nowhere to be seen here?
It's around for 4 days. Gets some decent pulse-ups but ultimately heads toward SE Texas and washes out
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2200&fh=96
Remember, GFS was allied with the models developing 14 a couple days ago. CMC did not agree and went with Laura. It won't end up being right the way it gets her stronger and to her spot. But it's noted.
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:Steve wrote:GFS hits the Triangle at 969 Thursday 1am or so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126
Is that about where Rita hit?
Rita made landfall in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:00z has peak at 966mb, 18z was 964mb.
So it’s the same on intensity with a shift west. It comes in just north east of where What’s left of Marco hits About a day earlier
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:Steve wrote:GFS hits the Triangle at 969 Thursday 1am or so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126
Is that about where Rita hit?
Roughly. It was a hair east of there and actually landfalled in Cameron Parish, LA. (Golden Triangle is the nickname they call the area around Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange)
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
captainbarbossa19 wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Steve wrote:GFS hits the Triangle at 969 Thursday 1am or so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126
Is that about where Rita hit?
Rita made landfall in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
Is that near the Texas border? I’m not familiar with Louisiana
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:Steve wrote:GFS hits the Triangle at 969 Thursday 1am or so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126
Is that about where Rita hit?
A little further west. I wonder how west these models can possibly move.
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