ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hammy]

So where is the trough that is supposed to create the shear that weakens Marco on approach to Texas? Does it just move out right before Laura rolls in and the high pressure builds immediately back in?

Seems like the case. GFS run looks like Marco moves right into the trough as Laura is moving in, with a bit of easterly shear plus reorganization from land keeping it in check--until it moves a bit more NW right under the high that's left behind by the trough. GFS is in line with the NAM at the moment, having a weak system out to 84 hours (which is as far out as the NAM runs go), with rapid intensification kicking in through Wednesday.

This is a stupid question but if the high builds back in after the trough lifts out what is it that then weakens the high allowing Laura to push onshore? Why doesn’t block Laura or push it back towards the gulf? Is there another trough or shortwave picking it up or weakening the high? I hope that makes sense

From the GFS run, it looks like there's still enough of a weakness at 500mb from the departing trough, as it's retrograding in this run rather than going up and over the high as we'd normally expect.




This definitely isn't a typical setup that's shaping up if this plays out, though there's really been nothing typical at all this year.

[Horn1991]

CMC with a large east shift for 00z. Brings a cat 1 into the Gulf Shores, AL area.

This seems a little more plausible than a ride to Corpus.

[CrazyC83]

This definitely isn't a typical setup that's shaping up if this plays out, though there's really been nothing typical at all this year.

I believe Katrina 2005 also had a building-ridge setup. That's why early forecasts (up to 72 hours before landfall) had it focused on the Florida Panhandle before we realized the ridge was building over the Southeast and that drove it into LA/MS. This may be a similar upper-level setup, albeit with the ridge building from the Southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

[stormlover2013]

That means ur in good shape then if cmc shows a landfall on u, nhc never mentions cmc lol

[pcolaman]

Yeah looks like we are pretty much all clear here in the panhandle. There's a remote possibility models come back east, but most likely not.

Lol windshield wiper in full effect lol . Not going to believe the models till it's 5 days out. I see that the models have gone back and forth with what storm will be the dominant storm. They are having troubles with what the atmosphere will be left with after one storm goes through that close together. We shall see what happens.

It kind of is 5 days out for the majority of the tracks. Maybe not landfall but you’d be believing about 80% of what they show.

I agree with that but isn't even a balanced storm yet. There are so many variables still in play to assume a correct path yet. Like I said, in the Gulf and then we see what happens. To much model bias at this point.

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF still wants a Northern track after a LLC reformation. We need to watch this as the HWRF has been the best model in the short term.

[Keldeo1997]

Also HMON comes off of Hispaniola intact

[captainbarbossa19]

Well the good news is that we have a long way to go before we know if Laura is going to be a threat for the Gulf coast. She first has to survive the islands. If she manages to survive, I think this is going to be a problem for Texas or Louisiana. It's possible it could even be one for both if she decides to travel like Rita.

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF is not giving up on a FL straits Track

[Keldeo1997]

Get ready for Fireworks

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF has a CAT 4 yet again

[Steve]

HWRF has Laura in Beast Mode at 944 at 81 hours. Let's hope it doesn't drop back into the 920's.

[Steve]

Here's the simulated satellite. I don't care if you're in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida. That's not what you want to see coming up.


Could it go Cat 5 on the model run?

[Steve]

HMON Wed am. Last run hit around Pecan Island. This looks like it should go south of there, but it's still running.

[Steve]

HWRF @ 93 hours. Getting scary.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF 93 hours + trend:

[txag2005]

Looks like HMON has Laura hitting somewhere in SE Texas. This is at 120 hrs, still 6 more hours left in this run.

At least intensity dropped this time since this run hit both Hispanola and Cuba. It was at 922 on the last run.

[Steve]

HMON with the Cat 3 heading toward Jefferson/Chambers Counties it looks like. It has 6 more hours to go on this run.

[Steve]

Galveston Island Cat 3 around 1am Thursday on the HMON

[txag2005]

HMON finishes with landfall on the east side of Galveston Island and the west end of the Boliver Peninsula. I'm assuming a solid Cat 3 at 956 mb.