ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#881 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:34 am

CAPE rapidly strengthening in the CoC.
Currently at 3500
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#882 Postby tiger_deF » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:36 am

People are going to be suprised when they wake up, Marco and Laura looked subpar yesterday but both systems appear to be strengthening rapidly
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#883 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:41 am

LoL, even the pro mets are crying about the models

 https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX/status/1296842164480221184


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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#884 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:46 am

Portastorm wrote:
3090 wrote:
xironman wrote:The gulfstream mission is finding robust upper level winds north of Marco, it may be impacted by shear sooner than later.


Thus my statement earlier, about his immediate track!

WV imagery in the GOM is very telling. Do not see Marco plowing into/thru that shear and heading towards Texas any time soon.


I’ve had my attention on Laura rather than Marco since I live in Palm Beach County, FL and for a while there seemed to be a possible threat from her. But looking at Marco and the WV imagery I’m confused as to why he won’t just get tugged N/NNE by that trough and prevailing steering winds. Guess models say he will get left behind by it?

It's not supposed to anyhow per the NHC guidance and track.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#885 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:47 am

It is going to be closer to the tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#886 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:49 am

xironman wrote:It is going to be closer to the tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.


That’s what I was just commenting on. Looking at that troughing/prevailing steering winds and trying to figure out why Marco wouldn’t just be tugged due N or even NNE?
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#887 Postby 3090 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:51 am

xironman wrote:It is going to be closer to the tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.


Yes he will and thus; his future track will be affected. Even the pro mets are not totally sure of the track and intensity forecasts. If they are not solid, how can those of us that are not professionally educated and learned in meteorology be sure?

As an example. Just yesterday, TD14 (pre Marco), was forecast to hit Honduras, then make a sharp but noticeable bend to the NW and with a 2nd landfall crosding the Yucatan. This was yesterday!!! Here we are 24hrs later and he was/is not even remotely close to that track. The point is and continues to be, the pros are really having a challenging time with the models. Very very complex and unusual setup with Laura and Marco.
Last edited by 3090 on Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#888 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:51 am

53 mm/hr rain rate!
Marco is going up a notch.
Good chance could go to Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#889 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:53 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:
xironman wrote:It is going to be closer to the tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.


That’s what I was just commenting on. Looking at that troughing/prevailing steering winds and trying to figure out why Marco wouldn’t just be tugged due N or even NNE?

Marco has been going basically north since yesterday morning... seems like neither system is behaving as forecast..does have a nice presentation this morning...
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#890 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:54 am

Bet the SHTF in the next forecast from NHC.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#891 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:57 am

Right now it is going to go north obviously, but that ridge over the Atlantic is supposed to build westward and eventually turn it NW, when that happens and how strong it is who knows? But the upper environment does look better (200mb winds) to the east.

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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#892 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:59 am

I’m getting Irene 1999/Wilma 2005 vibes out of this one. Colossal busts in terms of going much further E of forecasted tracks. Not a professional of course, but as an educated amateur it just seems like it should keep getting tugged N/NNE unless that trough/low fills and lifts out like ... now!
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#893 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:00 am

Wasn't expecting this, we have a core.

F. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
Last edited by xironman on Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#894 Postby 3090 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:01 am

xironman wrote:Right now it is going to go north obviously, but that ridge over the Atlantic is supposed to build westward and eventually turn it NW, when that happens and how strong it is who knows? But the upper environment does look better (200mb winds) to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/EdQkSSN.gif


Marcos may end up being a sheared system as he moves further north while Laura will have an advantage to strengthen as long as she does not have a lot of interaction with the highest terrain of the islands.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#895 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:02 am

Strong overshooting top with cirrus layering in 3500+ CAPE.
Convective Anticyclone will likely phase with the ARWB.

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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#896 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:03 am

xironman wrote:Wasn't expecting this, we have a core.

F. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles


WOW, Pinhole!!!
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#897 Postby 3090 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:05 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:I’m getting Irene 1999/Wilma 2005 vibes out of this one. Colossal busts in terms of going much further E of forecasted tracks. Not a professional of course, but as an educated amateur it just seems like it should keep getting tugged N/NNE unless that trough/low fills and lifts out like ... now!


Not sure about all that with an obvious building ridge. Very different weather pattern from the two hurricanes you have mentioned. But I will say, Marcos may end up coming very close or closer than expected to the SWLA area, before making a sharper (hook) bend toward Texas.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#898 Postby 3090 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:06 am

GCANE wrote:Bet the SHTF in the next forecast from NHC.


SHFT? :?:
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#899 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:07 am

I am continuously impressive by Marco’s extremely tight, tiny, and well-defined pressure gradient. That’s a very small center well within bursting convection. The latest pass supports a pressure down to 998 mbar (although the NHC only dropped it to 1002 mbar for their intermediate advisory), and the recon plane should be going into some of the deeper convection closer to the center in its next pass.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#900 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:10 am

Recon fix well north of the forecast track.
Pinhole Cat 1 thru the middle of the Yucatan channel.
Break out the diapers.

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