ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Bet the SHTF in the next forecast from NHC.

SHFT?

Kaka hits the fan

[3090]

Recon fix well north of the forecast track.
Pinhole Cat 1 thru the middle of the Yucatan channel.
Break out the diapers.

https://i.imgur.com/DS8nn3d.png

Been alluding to that for a while. It is going to shoot the gap probably as a high end TS, low end CAT1. That will and was not at all the expectation. Stay tuned as they say.

[ThetaE]

A storm named Marco? With a tiny core? Deja vu...

[northjaxpro]

It is going to be closer to the tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.

Yes he will and thus; his future track will be affected. Even the pro mets are not totally sure of the track and intensity forecasts. If they are not solid, how can those of us that are not professionally educated and learned in meteorology be sure?

As an example. Just yesterday, TD14 (pre Marco), was forecast to hit Honduras, then make a sharp but noticeable bend to the NW and with a 2nd landfall crosding the Yucatan. This was yesterday!!! Here we are 24hrs later and he was/is not even remotely close to that track. The point is and continues to be, the pros are really having a challenging time with the models. Very very complex and unusual setup with Laura and Marco.

That trough was very anomalously strong and I think the models initially have underestimated it. It is currently quite a bit east of where the NHC had it progged for 7.am. this morning last night in their projected track. Very interesting.

[3090]

Bet the SHTF in the next forecast from NHC.

SHFT?

Kaka hits the fan

...hilarious!! And I had a typo to boot.

[Steve]

Right now it is going to go north obviously, but that ridge over the Atlantic is supposed to build westward and eventually turn it NW, when that happens and how strong it is who knows? But the upper environment does look better (200mb winds) to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/EdQkSSN.gif

That streamflow-steering product lays it out. It can’t go any function of east, and as that ridge to the NE builds in farther westward, it’s got to bend. I do agree with 9030 that you can’t really tell how far north it’s going to get before bending (close to or completely west), but the money has to be on 27/27.5N or so.

[BYG Jacob]

Wasn't expecting this, we have a core.

F. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

Hello hurricane Marco

[Steve]

Wasn't expecting this, we have a core.

F. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

Hello hurricane Marco

A couple of Thursday models had it in the 990’s near the resort areas, and one got it to 989 or so. But I don’t feel like scrolling that far back in the thread to see which one.

[northjaxpro]

Wasn't expecting this, we have a core.

F. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

Hello hurricane Marco

It sure looks like we have an eyewall. Marco rapidly intensified overnight.

[Steve]

It sure did northjax. Forward speed will determine how far north it goes. There looks like a small window of time that it could get fairly close to here. Any lollygagging, and it’s west or far west.

[hipshot]

Right now it is going to go north obviously, but that ridge over the Atlantic is supposed to build westward and eventually turn it NW, when that happens and how strong it is who knows? But the upper environment does look better (200mb winds) to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/EdQkSSN.gif

Or the ridge that is "supposed" to move to the west moves slower and Marco gets pulled to the north or north east toward La.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting developments this morning. It appears Marco is on the threshold, if not already, a hurricane as it shoots the gap through the Yucatan Channel. It is also significantly east of NHC's plot point for 7.am. this morning from last night. They had the CoC near Cozumel. It is currently closer to the western tip of Cuba. Trough stronger than what was initialized.

I also am wondering the potential Binary interaction Marco and Laura will have with each other. A very intriguing situation unfolding.

[hipshot]

Bet the SHTF in the next forecast from NHC.

SHFT?

Sh** hits the fan or the fertilizer hits the ventilator

[Steve]

Right now it is going to go north obviously, but that ridge over the Atlantic is supposed to build westward and eventually turn it NW, when that happens and how strong it is who knows? But the upper environment does look better (200mb winds) to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/EdQkSSN.gif

Or the ridge that is "supposed" to move to the west moves slower and Marco gets pulled to the north or north east toward La.

It’s not just supposed to. It has to happen. Trough isn’t static in timeframe and will wash, retrograde and weaken. Only thing is timing. So yeah, lots of the 00z EPS members liked that scenario. Almost all the rest and I think EC operational move it to Texas.

Check it animated at 500
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2200&fh=12

[Jr0d]

Not a hurricane despite an eye. 998mb is the lowest pressure, 45ish kt winds however the NE quadrant has yet to be sampled by the HH . Tiny storms like this can strengthen quick, I will not be surprised if the pressure drops by a couple milibars on the next pass from the HH.

[MississippiWx]

Not sure this is ready to rapidly intensify until it fixes that western half. Winds were extremely light on the first recon pass. To strengthen quickly, it’s going to have to tighten up the west side first. Small systems can pull it off a lot easier, though.

[aspen]

SFMR jumped up to 55 kt in that hot tower. However, recon has only sampled a tiny portion of the NE quadrant so far.

[northjaxpro]

SFMR jumped up to 55 kt in that hot tower. However, recon has only sampled a tiny portion of the NE quadrant so far.

Tiny cyclones like these can ramp up rapidly. We may be seeing this with Marco this morning.

[hipshot]

Right now it is going to go north obviously, but that ridge over the Atlantic is supposed to build westward and eventually turn it NW, when that happens and how strong it is who knows? But the upper environment does look better (200mb winds) to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/EdQkSSN.gif

Or the ridge that is "supposed" to move to the west moves slower and Marco gets pulled to the north or north east toward La.

It’s not just supposed to. It has to happen. Trough isn’t static in timeframe and will wash, retrograde and weaken. Only thing is timing. So yeah, lots of the 00z EPS members liked that scenario. Almost all the rest and I think EC operational move it to Texas.

Check it animated at 500
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2200&fh=12

Yeah, what I meant was more of a when not if situation with regard to the ridge. Like you said, I think it is a matter of timing and
maybe some interaction with Laura.

[ronjon]

Interesting developments this morning. It appears Marco is on the threshold, if not already, a hurricane as it shoots the gap through the Yucatan Channel. It is also significantly east of NHC's plot point for 7.am. this morning from last night. They had the CoC near Cozumel. It is currently closer to the western tip of Cuba. Trough stronger than what was initialized.

I also am wondering the potential Binary interaction Marco and Laura will have with each other. A very intriguing situation unfolding.

Interesting dynamics in play leading to higher uncertainty in the 3-5 day track guidance. Latest 06z Euro keeps Marco stronger and more northerly into La. This results in Laura now tracking eastward of 00z run. Have to watch these dynamics play out in the coming days.