ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hello Hurricane Marco
Either this or next pass should bring an upgrade to cat 1, pressure is already there and winds will mix down eventually
Either this or next pass should bring an upgrade to cat 1, pressure is already there and winds will mix down eventually
Last edited by tiger_deF on Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Massive Theta-E Ridge building in the GoM.
TC's that track into one of these usually rapidly intensify one or two notches.
That is, Cat 1 goes to Cat 2 or 3.
MCS over TX continues to expand and plow to the coast.
Expecting the Rossby wave to weaken and pull back to the new position shown in about 24 hrs.


TC's that track into one of these usually rapidly intensify one or two notches.
That is, Cat 1 goes to Cat 2 or 3.
MCS over TX continues to expand and plow to the coast.
Expecting the Rossby wave to weaken and pull back to the new position shown in about 24 hrs.


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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:aspen wrote:SFMR jumped up to 55 kt in that hot tower. However, recon has only sampled a tiny portion of the NE quadrant so far.
Tiny cyclones like these can ramp up rapidly. We may be seeing this with Marco this morning.
We definitely are. Looks like the pressure has dropped a few mbar since last pass, and they’re finding 50-55 kt SFMR and 60-70 kt FL winds.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hipshot wrote:Steve wrote:hipshot wrote:Or the ridge that is "supposed" to move to the west moves slower and Marco gets pulled to the north or north east toward La.
It’s not just supposed to. It has to happen. Trough isn’t static in timeframe and will wash, retrograde and weaken. Only thing is timing. So yeah, lots of the 00z EPS members liked that scenario. Almost all the rest and I think EC operational move it to Texas.
Check it animated at 500
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2200&fh=12
Yeah, what I meant was more of a when not if situation with regard to the ridge. Like you said, I think it is a matter of timing and
maybe some interaction with Laura.
100.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Might be reformation to the north. HH making a north turn before getting to last center position and reporting 996.4mb.
Or it could be just due north movement.
Or it could be just due north movement.
Last edited by tropicwatch on Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
panamatropicwatch wrote:Might be reformation to the north. HH making a north turn before getting to last center position and reporting 996.4mb.
This.
This explains why the winds were so light earlier on the west side. Ummm rapid intensification?

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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MississippiWx wrote:panamatropicwatch wrote:Might be reformation to the north. HH making a north turn before getting to last center position and reporting 996.4mb.
This.
This explains why the winds were so light earlier on the west side. Ummm rapid intensification?
I think so, plus it is moving due north imo.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Marco keeps missing his (short term) forecast points to the N and E - Like every single one pretty much. Crazy!
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Leaning more towards a reformation, it is approximately 26 miles away from its last reported position.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The gulfstream mission should give good data to the models for the timing of the ridge.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Radial / Gravity Waves on the top layer of the CDO from a continuous firing hot tower.
100% sure RI is underway.
Somebody needs to wake up Aric.

100% sure RI is underway.
Somebody needs to wake up Aric.

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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It appears RI is happening.
Very lucky that recon is out there while it is happening.
Very lucky that recon is out there while it is happening.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
panamatropicwatch wrote:Leaning more towards a reformation, it is approximately 26 miles away from its last reported position.
I admit I haven’t looked at vort maps yet. But you’d have to think the main energy is in the mid-levels with the low level center wanting to be in the sw portion of the blob but getting sucked back up to the north and east.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Marco has a beautiful appearance on satellite imagery now. Makes you wonder if the lid is about to come off.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Jr0d wrote:It appears RI is happening.
Very lucky that recon is out there while it is happening.
Yes, thankfully we have Recon.out there while it is intensifyng!!
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
If Marco is going more NE does that mean the ridge is weaker than we expected?
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
They flew around the southern end of the hot tower.
No way they were going to fly thru it.
50+ knot south winds at 925mb - that is a massive infeed into the tower.
No way they were going to fly thru it.
50+ knot south winds at 925mb - that is a massive infeed into the tower.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wow. ~70kt flight level winds. That escalated quickly.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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