ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

The idea of the trof stretching out the moisture feed to Marco is looking less likely.
In fact, it may precondition the GoM ahead of Marco by bringing in very-moist air from the EPAC thru the IoT.

BTW, Theta-E Ridge in the GoM continues to strengthen.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297167755477688323

[GCANE]

Radial / Gravity Waves on the top layer of the CDO from a continuous firing hot tower.
100% sure RI is underway.
Somebody needs to wake up Aric.

Damnit G. The other G word. I stayed up past 2 and set the alarm to get up at 6:15 and go to the store and get a few more cases of water, booze and red bulls. Plan was to crash for 3-4 more hours. Instead I made a cup of coffee. haha No sleep during tropical threats for weather geeks :/

What's your plans Steve?

[tiger_deF]

Unless Marco really does a beeline to the West starting now it seems to difficult to believe a good chunk of the model guidance and the official forecast track. A stronger, easterly Marco is almost certainly going to have implications for the potential track of Laura

[Kazmit]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297167755477688323

Interestingly, that western peninsula of Cuba is very sparsely populated. Might have something to do with how many hurricanes cross through there.

[StAuggy]

Like I said a while back, if this system keeps missing forecast points to N and E colossal bust could be setting up track wise. Don’t like to lean so hard against modeling but that trough seems to be having a pretty big impact on path here

There is one model that supports this solution more or less. The 06z NAVGEM. It strengthens Marco and tracks it north into PCola.

If Marco follows the Navgem track then it would seem unlikely for Laura to go west of its landfall point... there would have to be a weakness for Laura to follow you’d think. That would put the NE gulf coast for a Laura landfall back in play I’d think... especially if she manages to stay north of the islands somehow.

[GCANE]

Even though I didn't pay attention to Laura because of the interaction of the PVS and the islands, it could be a doozy in the GoM.
Looks like a big ARWB will be setup when it gets there.

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297167755477688323

Interestingly, that western peninsula of Cuba is very sparsely populated. Might have something to do with how many hurricanes cross through there.

Has the navy issued any warnings for the the naval base in Guantanamo Bay?

Edit: wrong side...

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297167755477688323

Interestingly, that western peninsula of Cuba is very sparsely populated. Might have something to do with how many hurricanes cross through there.

Has the navy issued any warnings for the the naval base in Guantanamo Bay?

On the other end of the island.

[aspen]

Best track had been updated to 55kt/993 mbar

[MississippiWx]

Best track had been updated to 55kt/993 mbar

I bet it gets even stronger after the next pass.

[aspen]

Best track had been updated to 55kt/993 mbar

I bet it gets even stronger after the next pass.

Maybe 990-992 mbar at the rate it’s deepening, with SFMR getting up to 60 kt.

[tolakram]

[jasons2k]

Forecast tracks that bend like that make me nervous. A small change in trajectory could significantly change the landfall location.

[gqhebert]

Marco has about 18-24 hours before it might start feeling some southerly shear... Might make a run at cat 1 before weakening... I also think Marco is prepping the environment for his sister Laura

[hipshot]

Like I said a while back, if this system keeps missing forecast points to N and E colossal bust could be setting up track wise. Don’t like to lean so hard against modeling but that trough seems to be having a pretty big impact on path here

If the trough keeps this up, by the time the ridge moving in from the west exerts its influence it may be too late to move Marco west
and actually exacerbate the movement to the north or northeast, again JM2C.

[Steve]

Radial / Gravity Waves on the top layer of the CDO from a continuous firing hot tower.
100% sure RI is underway.
Somebody needs to wake up Aric.

Damnit G. The other G word. I stayed up past 2 and set the alarm to get up at 6:15 and go to the store and get a few more cases of water, booze and red bulls. Plan was to crash for 3-4 more hours. Instead I made a cup of coffee. haha No sleep during tropical threats for weather geeks :/

What's your plans Steve?

I'm playing everything by ear. We have enough of everything except food and beer (both of which I'll get if it looks like it might be necessary) to ride out whatever might come this way. I wanted to beat any store rush, and so now we have 7 cases of spring water and a couple handles of Beam. We should be good there, so basically nothing much to do but watch and track. Luckily our apartment is 15' up, so short of a cataclysmic meteor-driven tidal wave, I don't think we could ever flood (I have a parking pass to a downtown garage I can move cars to if necessary). Even in Katrina I think it settled around 5-6' where I live now.

One thought I had if it looked like the HWRF was going to be right about Laura, was to go to my condo in Pensacola (2nd story and 67 feet above sea level there) for the middle-end of the week and ride out Laura there. Unfortunately my employer decided that full-time/most-time remote ends this weekend meaning I have to start going to work again on Monday. I'll be tuned in all day and tonight, and if anything warrants me switching directors or having to act on an emergency, I'll do that. Otherwise, like I said, I'm just going to wait and see.

[Chemmers]

Defo see an eye trying to form, think this might go major

[Kazmit]

Marco has about 18-24 hours before it might start feeling some southerly shear... Might make a run at cat 1 before weakening... I also think Marco is prepping the environment for his sister Laura

It's close to cat 1 already. I think it has a good chance of cat 2.

[tolakram]

Defo see an eye trying to form, think this might go major

Any reasoning behind that?

Saved Cuban Radar