ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#981 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:14 am

anyone been posting radar of this yet ?

quite the tiny little (almost hurricane).. that does not want to follow the models at all..lol

Image
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#983 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:20 am

Time to aggressively hit the “refresh” button on the Tropical Tidbits recon page. It’s getting close to its third center pass.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#984 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:23 am

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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#985 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:24 am

Given the recon data, this is a hurricane. I would be very surprised if the NHC does not upgrade at 11am. At 5am this was a 45 mph storm....
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#986 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:27 am

aspen wrote:Time to aggressively hit the “refresh” button on the Tropical Tidbits recon page. It’s getting close to its third center pass.

That’s why we can’t have nice things. That poor site is gonna keel over
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#987 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:29 am



I had nearly written Marco off for my family in MS. Had told them they had the weekend to watch Laura. But concerned now tomorrow would be their outside prep day. Of Marco does race north toward New Orleans that wouldn’t give them much good weather Monday to prep. Such a mess of a forecast.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#988 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:29 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
aspen wrote:Time to aggressively hit the “refresh” button on the Tropical Tidbits recon page. It’s getting close to its third center pass.

That’s why we can’t have nice things. That poor site is gonna keel over


Alternate map site: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#989 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:33 am



Unreal if that verifies. Some of the models kept insisting a much more pronounced northern track into Louisiana, which seemed crazy at the time.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#990 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:33 am

Image

4am CDT Saturday NHC track. (7am CDT position) Air Force recon through 9:19am CDT. SSEC RealEarth ( https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/ ) satellite imagery, ABI band 13, color.

Edit to say that track was from 4am CDT, but position was from 7am CDT.
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#991 Postby TorSkk » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:34 am

BobHarlem wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
aspen wrote:Time to aggressively hit the “refresh” button on the Tropical Tidbits recon page. It’s getting close to its third center pass.

That’s why we can’t have nice things. That poor site is gonna keel over


Alternate map site: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium

One more: https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/mission/MARCO_AF309_0514A
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#992 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:34 am

Marco is closing in on the extreme Western tip of Cuba currently and really intensifying. We are witnessing the dynamical theatrics of another tiny cyclone.

I an feeling more and more tha Marco is going to be considerably right(east) of previous forecasts as the ridge will be slowerto build back in time. It also play potentially a significant role with the intensity and track of Laura in a couple of days as well.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#993 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:37 am

No pressure drop this pass, and recon also went through the quadrants that lack the maximum winds (although SFMR did exceed 50 kt again).
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#994 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:42 am

These 2 storms have been a mess to forecast. I don't envy them at all. Interesting developments with little Marco :double:
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#995 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:44 am

Ivanhater wrote:These 2 storms have been a mess to forecast. I don't envy them at all. Interesting developments with little Marco :double:


Can you recall a season where forecast points were over 1000 miles between each other? Track possibiilitties between Northern Mexico nd the Florida Panhandle? People say "oh gee, it's 2020", but you know it sure feels like this year is just cursed. :lol:
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#996 Postby ThetaE » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:44 am

The strongest winds were not sampled this pass, but I think it's important to notice that Marco's windfield has become incredibly more symmetric over the course of this morning's mission. First pass had 5-10 kt winds on the west side. This pass had equally strong 50 kt NW and SE quadrants. Not as flashy as finding hurricane force winds, but a big improvement for Marco either way.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#997 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:46 am

There is no doubt in my mind with the data from Recon and satellite imagery showing a very defined eye that Marco is a hurricane and an intensifying one at that!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#998 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:46 am

SoupBone wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:These 2 storms have been a mess to forecast. I don't envy them at all. Interesting developments with little Marco :double:


Can you recall a season where forecast points were over 1000 miles between each other? Track possibiilitties between Northern Mexico nd the Florida Panhandle? People say "oh gee, it's 2020", but you know it sure feels like this year is just cursed. :lol:


Definitely 2020 vibes :lol:

I believe the Icon is showing this northerly move
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#999 Postby mpic » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:46 am

What do I tell my friends and family when they freak out about seeing on tv that a Fujiwhara is going to occur? PTSD is very real here among some of them. I am trying to be the voice of reason.
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Re: ATL: MARCO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1000 Postby Kazmit » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:49 am

Probably 55kts at 11am. Should be a hurricane by this afternoon though.
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