ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

Wow just woke up and looking at IR its super similar to what the HWRF modeled. If it keeps verifying expect lots of convection to fire off today.

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Where does the HWRF take her?

I don't know where the coc is moving but that whole blob (good meteorological term) appears to be moving west to wsw, JM2C.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297157625419898881

[Kazmit]

After PR HWRF says it gets sloppy again for a little bit

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_satIR_13L_4.png

Then messier after Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_satIR_13L_7.png


It doesn’t actually start firing on all cylinders until it reaches the keys

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_satIR_13L_11.png

HWRF had done well so far but it is further north than the NHC track, staying mostly offshore the GAs. We'll have to see if this verifies.

[Weatherboy1]

Is it possible a stronger Marco influences Laura to move further East? Is it out of the question this could still come into south Florida?

I’d say there’s still a small threat to extreme south Florida like homestead south. We will know more in the next 12 hours

I don’t think Laura gets as far north as me (Palm Beach County) but I would keep a close eye on Marco here. Heading much more N than NW for several hours now and missing forecast points in a noteworthy fashion. If he doesn’t get shunted more west soon ... and Laura plays “catch up” from the East? Hard to see her making it as far west in the Gulf because ridge wouldn’t be able to build as far west in time. Interesting dynamic to watch for sure

[Do_For_Love]

Repost - my bad

[Kazmit]

New convective blowup near the LLC.

[shiny-pebble]

New convective blowup near the LLC.

Wonder if this will pull the MLC north...

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[tiger_deF]

Laura may not be entirely vertically stacked, but the convective pattern really is night and day from 24 hours ago when it looked to be on the verge of dissipating. Outflow and banding is fairly impressive

[Kazmit]

New convective blowup near the LLC.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/goes16-ir-13l-202008221315-lat17-7-lon293-9.jpg

Wonder if this will pull the MLC north...

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Yes, definitely a possibility.

[quietstorm]

About the likelihood of the HWRF model, has it happened before that the NHC has moved the cone one way and then moved it back in the other direction again? I can't recall ever seeing that happen before. Super nervous about that model's solution but telling myself that the fact that NHC keeps shifting the cone westward means HWRF outcome must be way wrong...

[Aric Dunn]

all I have to say is ...Good Ole Puerto RIco Bounce Around

[HURRICANELONNY]

How come some are saying laura is n.e. of puerto rico. The lats have it at 17.7n 66w. That would be s.e. of puerto rico

[Weatherboy1]

How come some are saying laura is n.e. of puerto rico. The lats have it at 17.7n 66w. That would be s.e. of puerto rico

Surface obs/satellite etc suggest center relocated/“bounced” to north side of island. Would expect 11 am NHC discussion to address this but we will see soon

[PTPatrick]

About the likelihood of the HWRF model, has it happened before that the NHC has moved the cone one way and then moved it back in the other direction again? I can't recall ever seeing that happen before. Super nervous about that model's solution but telling myself that the fact that NHC keeps shifting the cone westward means HWRF outcome must be way wrong...

It has. No super common For them To have windshield wiper swings in these modern days of hurricane modeling. But can happen in the 4-5 time periods. Usually they adjust track so subtly you wouldn’t notice even if they are a little back and forth because they hug the consensus so much. If a significant model or 2 comes back east toward HWrF for instance, could see them shift back toward NOLA. This is a highly complex situation with Marco on the seen. More so than your normal storm approaching the gulf through the G Antilles. The question is usually just timing the strength and position of troughs and highs. But whatever Marco does could have an effect on ridge position. And currently models stretch from Brownsville to nola for him...so it’s going to be a tough one .

In the good old days, I will never forget the windshield wipering, (Katrina and Ivan to name 2) Sitting on the northern gulf coast it was not uncommon for them swing back and forth across the coast in the long range.

[alienstorm]

According to the radar it is almost certain that the new center of Laura is south of San Juan

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6605/zg[URL=https://imageshack.com/i/pnzgRwIbg][/url]RwIb.gif[/url]

[Canelaw99]

Surface obs/satellite etc suggest center relocated/“bounced” to north side of island. Would expect 11 am NHC discussion to address this but we will see soon

As predicted by the HWRF, no?

[Michele B]

all I have to say is ...Good Ole Puerto RIco Bounce Around

JoeB has a lot to say about “land interactions” and hurricanes. Something about the friction etc.

Not the “tearing apart” that mountainous areas do...

Can you enlighten me what that theory is?

[FLpanhandle91]

In my opinion the MLC south of St. Croix only has a small window to form it's own LLC while convection is still strong.

[Hurricaneman]

How come some are saying laura is n.e. of puerto rico. The lats have it at 17.7n 66w. That would be s.e. of puerto rico

That’s the MLC, the surface low is on the eastern tip of Puerto Rico

[Aric Dunn]

the convection to the south has to die for the center north of PR to make a run.