ATL: LAURA - Models

[kevin]

Of course in the short-term the island interaction is the most important factor, but if Laura indeed turns out to move slower than expected right now, it'll give Marco more time to move out of the way and give Laura a better possibility to intensify once in the Gulf.

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF of Marco at 18 hrs is more than a full degree longitude further east and about half degree further north than the 06z run. Its also much stronger at 990 mb vs 1006 mb in 06z run. Wonder what implications this has for Laura's future track?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=14L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020082212&fh=18

Wouldn’t mean more west if it allows more time for the ridge to build back in behind Marco?

[Blown Away]

HMON inland Cuba 42 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082212/hmon_ref_13L_14.png

HMON is very L outlier for Laura and very R outlier for Marco...

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF north of Cuba 33hrs and strengthening

[eastcoastFL]

HMON inland Cuba 42 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082212/hmon_ref_13L_14.png

HMON is very L outlier for Laura and very R outlier for Marco...

I haven’t followed HMON much but you’re right it does seem to be left of everything else so far and it shows some erratic movements

[St0rmTh0r]

HWRF north of Cuba 33hrs and strengthening

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082212/hwrf_ref_13L_11.png

Really gonna take off once it reaches the straits

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF W of 06z about to interact with Cuba

[cp79]

So much for HWRF steering clear of the islands. That track will put the system in a battle to survive. Those mountains can rip apart a center. Seen it way too many times.

[Beef Stew]

Interesting. HWRF still loves the Inagua strike, but takes it back S towards Cuba afterwards before appearing to shift slightly N at 48 hours. So far marginally weaker, and looks as if it will avoid the keys in this particular run.

[DestinHurricane]

So much for HWRF steering clear of the islands. That track will put the system in a battle to survive. Those mountains can rip apart a center. Seen it way too many times.

I think you spoke too soon.

[cp79]

HMON really going to put Laura in the heart of the maintains for some time. I can’t see it making it out alive with that track. That’s going to be a beating.
HWRF keeps it away From the Cuba mountains.

[St0rmTh0r]

So much for HWRF steering clear of the islands. That track will put the system in a battle to survive. Those mountains can rip apart a center. Seen it way too many times.

I think you spoke too soon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082212/hwrf_mslp_wind_13L_17.png

Real time shows LLC near mona passage moving NW so this is more than likely

[toad strangler]

So much for HWRF steering clear of the islands. That track will put the system in a battle to survive. Those mountains can rip apart a center. Seen it way too many times.

Laura isn't strong enough yet to be severely disrupted unless she decides to take her time and traverse each island right down the middle. It's the strong well structured cyclones that tend to lose the most from the Shredder chain. Once a tight rotation is disrupted it winds down and it's much tougher to regain that strengthening momentum. The more shallow system isn't fighting that kind of negative momentum.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... @48 hrs... Laura a little SW and Marco @2-3 degrees E and stronger... Maybe E Marco pushes Laura more S & W...

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF 48 hrs







60 hours

[Ivanhater]

12z HWRF... @48 hrs... Laura a little SW and Marco @2-3 degrees E and stronger... Maybe E Marco pushes Laura more S & W...

So far, the models that are moving east on Marco have come east on Laura as well

[DestinHurricane]

12z HWRF... @48 hrs... Laura a little SW and Marco @2-3 degrees E and stronger... Maybe E Marco pushes Laura more S & W...

So far, the models that are moving east on Marco have come east on Laura as well

HWRF west at hour 60 but wouldn't be surprised to see landfall location come east due to marco.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... @48 hrs... Laura a little SW and Marco @2-3 degrees E and stronger... Maybe E Marco pushes Laura more S & W...

So far, the models that are moving east on Marco have come east on Laura as well

Yeah, Marco landfalls near FL/AL and let’s see if Laura landfalls in same place... Marco huge E shift in 12z HWRF

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF... @48 hrs... Laura a little SW and Marco @2-3 degrees E and stronger... Maybe E Marco pushes Laura more S & W...

So far, the models that are moving east on Marco have come east on Laura as well

Why do you think that is?

[eastcoastFL]

66 hrs