2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

GFS says lets do this again in two weeks with the quasi-depression and model dissipation and uncertainty as if Isaias and Laura weren't enough of this forecasting nightmare setup.

[SconnieCane]

Naturally with a storm going in the EPAC.

[Hammy]

Euro with a tropical storm at 240h, but the question again arises, why are the waves coming off so far north? This comes off at 22-25N and moves SW.

[869MB]

12z CMC has it in for the upper Texas Coast...double whammy!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LMAO. Looks like Upper Texas and then the South Central LA Coast in Cat 2 territory. If you look at the CMC at 500mb for hour 240, you'll see that it likes the GFS's idea of massive Atlantic ridging. But it's got favorable conditions farther east than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=240

If you check out that August 16th CMC Loop linked above and then check out the current August 22nd NHC Forecast Tracks for TS Marco and TS Laura respectively, everyone should be thoroughly impressed. If that 12Z 8/16/2020 CMC run verifies, maybe a new King should be crowned in the computer model world.

[chaser1]

12z CMC has it in for the upper Texas Coast...double whammy!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LMAO. Looks like Upper Texas and then the South Central LA Coast in Cat 2 territory. If you look at the CMC at 500mb for hour 240, you'll see that it likes the GFS's idea of massive Atlantic ridging. But it's got favorable conditions farther east than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=240

If you check out that August 16th CMC Loop linked above and then check out the current August 22nd NHC Forecast Tracks for TS Marco and TS Laura respectively, everyone should be thoroughly impressed. If that 12Z 8/16/2020 CMC run verifies, maybe a new King should be crowned in the computer model world.

Wow, people REALLY do need to click on that link above?!! CMC clearly NAILED that 150 hr. forecast! Great post, and thanks for digging this up to review in hindsight.

[TheStormExpert]

LMAO. Looks like Upper Texas and then the South Central LA Coast in Cat 2 territory. If you look at the CMC at 500mb for hour 240, you'll see that it likes the GFS's idea of massive Atlantic ridging. But it's got favorable conditions farther east than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=240

If you check out that August 16th CMC Loop linked above and then check out the current August 22nd NHC Forecast Tracks for TS Marco and TS Laura respectively, everyone should be thoroughly impressed. If that 12Z 8/16/2020 CMC run verifies, maybe a new King should be crowned in the computer model world.

Wow, people REALLY do need to click on that link above?!! CMC clearly NAILED that 150 hr. forecast! Great post, and thanks for digging this up to review in hindsight.

We need to see this happen more than once. Though I will admit it's done better than both the GFS and Euro this season, not to mention no more phantom storms!

[sma10]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

[TheStormExpert]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

Mind posting an image?

[sma10]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

Mind posting an image?

I would if I could, mate. Not sure that weather.us free site creates spaghetti graphs

[SFLcane]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

Looks like a lot of AEW fish storms next 2 weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

Looks like a lot of AEW fish storms next 2 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/HbImwvO.png

Where’s that Bermuda High that reminded you of 2004?

[sma10]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

Looks like a lot of AEW fish storms next 2 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/HbImwvO.png

It only means the basin is primed for development. You cannot take track seriously 10-15 days out

[TheStormExpert]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

Looks like a lot of AEW fish storms next 2 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/HbImwvO.png

It only means the basin is primed for development. You cannot take track seriously 10-15 days out

Usually IF it develops rapidly right off the coast it makes a Fish scenario much more likely and credible. But as we’ve seen so far this year the Waves have struggled to rapidly get going this developing further down the road and increasing land impacts.

[sma10]

Looks like a lot of AEW fish storms next 2 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/HbImwvO.png

It only means the basin is primed for development. You cannot take track seriously 10-15 days out

Usually IF it develops rapidly right off the coast it makes a Fish scenario much more likely and credible. But as we’ve seen so far this year the Waves have struggled to rapidly get going this developing further down the road and increasing land impacts.

Yes. And I guess my original point was just to emphasize that the Euro has shown NOTHING this year in terms of genesis skill. So the fact that it's jumping might mean a lot of action

[SFLcane]

FWIW, the Euro Ensemble suggests that Laura/Marco is only the start. The 8-15 day period has TS and hurricanes spinning all over the basin

Looks like a lot of AEW fish storms next 2 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/HbImwvO.png

Where’s that Bermuda High that reminded you of 2004?

They don’t all recurve and it’s way to early.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a lot of AEW fish storms next 2 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/HbImwvO.png

Where’s that Bermuda High that reminded you of 2004?

They don’t all recurve and it’s way to early.

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/23/71adab458d84012d69d3d85500e6dbda-full.png

The Euro these days doesn't know a potential cyclone until it's got a cone

[Kingarabian]

If I had a dollar for every time the models showed a system from an AEW recurve ...

[TheStormExpert]

If I had a dollar for every time the models showed a system from an AEW recurve ...

Well like several have stated a recurving system is the normal.

[869MB]

LMAO. Looks like Upper Texas and then the South Central LA Coast in Cat 2 territory. If you look at the CMC at 500mb for hour 240, you'll see that it likes the GFS's idea of massive Atlantic ridging. But it's got favorable conditions farther east than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=240

If you check out that August 16th CMC Loop linked above and then check out the current August 22nd NHC Forecast Tracks for TS Marco and TS Laura respectively, everyone should be thoroughly impressed. If that 12Z 8/16/2020 CMC run verifies, maybe a new King should be crowned in the computer model world.

Wow, people REALLY do need to click on that link above?!! CMC clearly NAILED that 150 hr. forecast! Great post, and thanks for digging this up to review in hindsight.

Of course the NHC cones have since shifted, but nonetheless that was quite remarkable the CMC was the very first model to suggest such a possible scenario that the NHC would later officially forecast at one point in time for the tracks of two separate storms.

[Kat5]

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are showing fishes for the following weeks...