ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[galaxy401]

NHC talking of a major forecast change for Marco in the newest advisory.

[wxman57]

NHC shifted east. Surge watch all the way east to FL/AL border

[wx98]

Storm surge and hurricane watches up for the Gulf coast. Huge shift east in track to LA.

[wxman57]

Looks like landfall near the mouth of the MS.

[wx98]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[Javlin]

NHC shifted east. Surge watch all the way east to FL/AL border

That's there favorite spot!!

[wx98]

Looks like the current thinking is a mid-grade Cat 1 into SE LA/MS coast around midday Monday.

[toad strangler]

[aspen]

That was a huge forecast shift. Now LA is looking at two hurricane landfalls next week...2020 at its finest.

[psyclone]

Marco's most intense convection is in a large, curved band east of the system extending into the Caribbean. With southwesterly shear expected to continue, some of this may get swept toward florida. watching the key west (and eventually tampa) long range radar should be a worthwhile activity over the next couple of days.

[Javlin]

I do not see as much shear as earlier seems Marco and the environment to the N are moving in tandem.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

[Javlin]

Yup, and now all the models have suddenly been fixed and its all good.
Model huggers are going to hug.

https://i.imgur.com/PqHfijA.jpg

Yeah GC sometimes the synoptic pattern just needs to be observed and forget the models and the NHC still got that L move going on I think N/NNW for a little while longer.

[wxman57]

I do not see as much shear as earlier seems Marco and the environment to the N are moving in tandem.

Check the water vapor loop. Plenty of shear and dry air to Marco's west. I see NHC's track exactly matches my forecast, with the exception of 75 mph (them) vs. 65 mph (me) at landfall. I just don't see such a small storm in even moderate shear (and dry air entrainment) keeping hurricane strength. It may have already peaked this morning, but could reach hurricane strength in the next 12 hrs before weakening due to increased shear/dry air.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I do not see as much shear as earlier seems Marco and the environment to the N are moving in tandem.

Check the water vapor loop. Plenty of shear and dry air to Marco's west. I see NHC's track exactly matches my forecast, with the exception of 75 mph (them) vs. 65 mph (me) at landfall. I just don't see such a small storm in even moderate shear (and dry air entrainment) keeping hurricane strength. It may have already peaked this morning, but could reach hurricane strength in the next 12 hrs before weakening due to increased shear/dry air.

I agree with your synoptic assessment. Marco's upper level environment is a mess. On Water Vapor the setup looks more akin to that of an extratropical or subtropical system rather than a purely tropical one.

[MGC]

Trough over western GOM should steer TD-14 towards NGOM coast. I'm thinking LA/MS area.....MGC

Just my opinion, not an official forecast.

Good to see my thought on this cyclone are panning out. Thought the trough would eventually win out a force the storm northward. Bad news for us here along the coast though. Well, got to start getting the property ready for the possibility of two storms in two days. 2020 curse you!!.....MGC

[Kingarabian]

I agree with Wxman57 in that the SW shear could make the effects of Marco more worse. I remember what those upper level winds + slower movement did for Hurricane Lane 2018 in the CPAC and the Big Island -- before eventually ripping the storm apart.

[SoupBone]

Yup, and now all the models have suddenly been fixed and its all good.
Model huggers are going to hug.

https://i.imgur.com/PqHfijA.jpg

I'm not personally hugging any model, I'm still concerned about both systems impacting SE Texas. But with the atmospheric data being in these runs, I do think they have more reliability, though what does that mean in 2020 anyway? Ha

[GCANE]

UL Vort intensity continues to drop on the southern end of the Rossby Wave
CIMSS now depicting a drop in shear NE of the CoC indicating the ARWB is building in.

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening Video Update on Marco (and Laura)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkxAm4fAgTs