ATL: LAURA - Models

[Frank P]

HMON 130kt cane heading towards Galveston

18z HMON hour 105:
https://i.imgur.com/4XdWbFX.png

And that is a HUGH shift north and east up the coast for the HMON..... last run took it to the Brownsville area ..... crazy

[Kingarabian]

HMON 130kt cane heading towards Galveston

That’s a big east shift for the HMON, right? Wasn’t it near the Tex/Mex border last run?

HMON trend:

[txag2005]

The hmon has been all over the place.

[Beef Stew]

Despite the added land interaction in this run, the difference in pressure and windspeed by the time Laura arrives in the Northern Gulf seems to be negligible. If the HWRF is right, Laura won't need but 40 hours over water regardless of interaction with the GA's to become a formidable major.

[BigB0882]

People in SETX better pray that HMON is wrong. Is that a Cat 5? Will be very curious to see if it shifts east again at 00z. Could this become the HMON vs HWRF battle? I remember the good ole days of GFS vs. Euro.

[SoupBone]

HMON 130kt cane heading towards Galveston

18z HMON hour 105:
https://i.imgur.com/4XdWbFX.png

And that is a HUGH shift north up the coast for the HMON..... last run took it to the Brownsville area ..... crazy

Last run, yes, but last nights (I think 18Z) had pretty much that solution. It's really been all over the place.

[txag2005]

People in SETX better pray that HMON is wrong. Is that a Cat 5? Will be very curious to see if it shifts east again at 00z. Could this become the HMON vs HWRF battle? I remember the good ole days of GFS vs. Euro.

The hmon has been up and down the Texas coast since 0z.

[HurricaneEdouard]

18z HMON hour 111:
https://i.imgur.com/6Wh5z7E.png

Bruh..

HMON is essentially showing a repeat of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.


HWRF is showing a more westward Hurricane Frederic (1979).

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 93-99:

[Beef Stew]

HuMONgous margin of error...

[Kingarabian]

18z HMON hour 114 landfall.



Ignore the 111kt wind estimate. This would be a high end cat.4 landfall with that pressure.

[shiny-pebble]

Not sure which thread this would best fit but,

FWIW, the HWRF has a huge convective burst 6 hours from now near the (new/forming?) center, and it looks like it may be verifying pretty well;

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[MississippiWx]

Talk about windshield wipers.

These models are struggling with the land interaction. I think the main point to take home is the constant bombing out of the storm by virtually every model once in the Gulf. Someone could be in for a rough time.

[SoupBone]

For reference, this was the 18Z HMON for last night (8/21)

[Nederlander]

18z HMON hour 114 landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/WV4MnKn.png

Ignore the 111kt wind estimate. This would be a high end cat.4 landfall with that pressure.

That pretty much would put me right in the eastern eyewall. No thanks! Not liking this 18z trend in the models.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling.

[Michele B]

18z GFS hours 93-99:
https://i.imgur.com/rQ4EmLv.gif

933??? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

Isn't that a bit TOO aggressive?!?!?!

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 93-99:
https://i.imgur.com/rQ4EmLv.gif

933??? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

Isn't that a bit TOO aggressive?!?!?!

It's the GOM and its high OHC so it's unfortunately believable.

[Beef Stew]

Talk about windshield wipers.

These models are struggling with the land interaction. I think the main point to take home is the constant bombing out of the storm by virtually every model once in the Gulf. Someone could be in for a rough time.

Exactly. We finally saw the HWRF take it over the DR and Cuba this run, and the result was still another sub 940 cat 4. Something has to be said for the fact that multiple models are seeing an environment in the N. GOM that is conductive for RI once Laura gets there.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling.

Through hour 24 its a 994mb landfall over Cuba. Much stronger than the 12z so far. Relatively same track with about the same amount of land interaction through 36 hours.