ATL: MARCO - Models

[Ivanhater]

18z hwrf is showing this may be sheared by landfall with most of the weather to the east. We'll see

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[SconnieCane]

No love for Marco but bombs out Laura into a monster? What is supposed to change so drastically in the short time between the two systems?

[HoustonFrog]

Any chance ends up in Texas still?

[Hammy]

No love for Marco but bombs out Laura into a monster? What is supposed to change so drastically in the short time between the two systems?

I think the models are trending towards having Marco move directly into the trough as it's lifting out, inducing quite a bit of shear. But because Laura is lagging behind, it'll be arriving under the upper level anticyclone that's left behind it.

[LSU Saint]

Any chance ends up in Texas still?

Wondering this also.



I have no idea what to think of this image lol

[TXWeatherMan]

Any chance ends up in Texas still?

Always a chance but not looking as likely

[jaguars_22]

The Nam thinks so!! And Laura looks like Texas too lol it’s the Nam

[Steve]

Any chance ends up in Texas still?

Wondering this also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

I have no idea what to think of this image lol

Haha. It says high pressure.

But it's the NAM 12km says fujiwara will be in effect. A surprisingly concentric and stout Marco around 999/1000mb is coming up to the LA Coast only to be overtaken by Laura and sending it west and southwest to wash out. Haha. Greatness. The high that also pushes Marco west doesn't seem to affect Laura though it's pretty far south of Boothville (like 26.7N) and at 988 with 9 hours of plots still to go.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=48

[Steve]

NAM 3km is more realistic. It intensifies Marco decently coming up to the coast but starts to raise the pressure closer to land. It ends up with a landfalling Cat 1 /988 about 10:00am Monday. It crosses New Orleans and does show weather with it, so that will be cool and hopefully mean one more day to work remote.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=39

At the 60 hour mark, it's got Laura moving NW in the direction of *surprise* Boothville with a significantly intensifying storm at 961. It shows it to also be small, but that's often the way any low appears on NAM.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=60

Here are the satellite reps:

Marco @ Landfall


Laura @ 60 hours

[catskillfire51]

GFS takes Marco to NOLA in 36hrs as 997MB a little to the east and a little stronger then 18z

[Steve]

GFS takes Marco to NOLA in 36hrs as 997MB a little to the east and a little stronger then 18z

It literally blows my mind that's like a day and a half away. Usually I'd be super excited and all beside myself and ****. But I don't know. My mind's on Laura too. GFS luckily has it passing comfortably to our south. That's not good for points west as it likely would be stronger given the time on the Gulf. It does have Laura at 966 at 90 hours roughly south of Lafayette and east of Corpus Christi.

ICON treat Marco kind of weird. It gets to the LA Coast and the upper energy moves off but it leaves behind low pressure with part of it. IDK.

[Astromanía]

Uff safe

[Steve]

Marco is sparking to life tonight. I don't know if that Theta-E ridge or if it's DMAX or what, but it's bubbling up eyes (on longwave). Might be the last peak, but you assume regardless of weakening down the line that it will still try and fire.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[USTropics]

A view of how the models have performed for Tropical Storm Marco thus far. Some of the data sample past 60 hours is low (i.e. low number of runs).









All center fixes and model plots are part of ATCF and can be found here - ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 00-24:

[tolakram]

6Z euro - Marco never makes landfall but weakens and drifts west with remnants heading in well south of Houston. Al images behind a paywall as far as I know. Looking at Weatherbell for my images.

[Ken711]

[Steve]

NAM 3km slows it down at the coast and moves slowly west while weakening again. Small but decent storm moving toward the coast. Slightly ENE of the prior run at 24 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=24

[tolakram]

12z GFS, another no landfall solution.

[Ptarmigan]

Any chance ends up in Texas still?

Wondering this also.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

I have no idea what to think of this image lol

Hurricane Marco Ensemble forecast from GFS, EURO, and UKMET.
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL14