ATL: LAURA - Models

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2321 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:00 pm

Cat 4 crystal beach tx
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2322 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:00 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2323 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:00 pm

00z GFS hours 72-96 959mb:
Image

Can still come in stronger with about 6-9 hours before landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2324 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:00 pm

BigB0882 wrote:GFS making the swing West. Texas back in play?


It was never out of play.

And this run is definitely further west. Traversing the GoM and ladfall around Galveston at 969mb.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2325 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:01 pm

SoupBone wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:GFS making the swing West. Texas back in play?


It was never out of play.

And this run is definitely further west. Traversing the GoM and ladfall around Galveston at 969mb.

I see pressures as low as 958mb.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2326 Postby jaguars_22 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:03 pm

959! No center still no good run?? I’m in Victoria mid Texas and I’m not worried because Marco tricked us all and shifted 200 miles East in hours :)
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2327 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:03 pm

00z UKMET 950mb probably a landfall near Galveston:

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2020 0 18.0N 69.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2020 12 19.5N 73.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 24.08.2020 24 20.4N 76.6W 1003 39
1200UTC 24.08.2020 36 21.3N 80.5W 1002 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 48 22.6N 83.7W 999 41
1200UTC 25.08.2020 60 24.1N 87.0W 994 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 72 25.3N 90.0W 986 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 84 26.6N 92.6W 969 70
0000UTC 27.08.2020 96 28.1N 94.5W 950 82
1200UTC 27.08.2020 108 30.3N 94.9W 960 47
0000UTC 28.08.2020 120 33.1N 94.4W 972 40
1200UTC 28.08.2020 132 35.6N 93.2W 981 33
0000UTC 29.08.2020 144 36.6N 90.7W 984 35
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2328 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:04 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:GFS making the swing West. Texas back in play?


It was never out of play.

And this run is definitely further west. Traversing the GoM and ladfall around Galveston at 969mb.

I see pressures as low as 958mb.


That path would be skirting the Greater Metro Houston Area just to its east, almost on top of it.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2329 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:04 pm

My takeaway is that the GFS is basically saying Laura could traverse over the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba and still become a formidable hurricane in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2330 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:05 pm

00z GFS hours 96-114:
Image

Landfall and more.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2331 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:05 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:My takeaway is that the GFS is basically saying Laura could traverse over the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba and still become a formidable hurricane in the Gulf.

The trajectory and rapid deepening on the models reminds me of the 1886 Indianola hurricane—only the landfall is a bit farther north in TX this time.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2332 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:06 pm

Folks do not forget that the UKMET is a top tier model up there with the Euro and GFS. It is showing a 950mb landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2333 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:00z UKMET 950mb probably a landfall near Galveston:

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2020 0 18.0N 69.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2020 12 19.5N 73.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 24.08.2020 24 20.4N 76.6W 1003 39
1200UTC 24.08.2020 36 21.3N 80.5W 1002 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 48 22.6N 83.7W 999 41
1200UTC 25.08.2020 60 24.1N 87.0W 994 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 72 25.3N 90.0W 986 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 84 26.6N 92.6W 969 70
0000UTC 27.08.2020 96 28.1N 94.5W 950 82
1200UTC 27.08.2020 108 30.3N 94.9W 960 47
0000UTC 28.08.2020 120 33.1N 94.4W 972 40
1200UTC 28.08.2020 132 35.6N 93.2W 981 33
0000UTC 29.08.2020 144 36.6N 90.7W 984 35

hopefully tonight's runs are enough for people to stop dismissing the hurricane models' strong solutions. it is becoming clear that there is a serious threat for a major in louisiana/texas in 4 days.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2334 Postby jaguars_22 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:06 pm

So what’s the chance this comes further west and hits us in mid Texas coast?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2335 Postby Nederlander » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:07 pm

Cat 3 over Bolivar. Very much an Ike scenario
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2336 Postby Nederlander » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:09 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:So what’s the chance this comes further west and hits us in mid Texas coast?

Trending in that direction, absolutely possible. Still need to wait to see how she traverse Hisp and Cuba - tomorrows model runs will be telling
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2337 Postby jaguars_22 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:11 pm

I just have a hard time believing the ridge would be that strong to keep her west entire way! I see Laura takes a north at landfall so that is saving me from believing I’m in danger
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2338 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:12 pm

You can subtract ~20mb from those global model pressure readings due to limitations of their resolutions.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2339 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Folks do not forget that the UKMET is a top tier model up there with the Euro and GFS. It is showing a 950mb landfall.


950mb for global models is very low. This tells me the reality may end up much lower
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2340 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:13 pm

Yeah, GFS smokes the Golden Triangle on that run. CMC is running now. It hit around Destin/Sandestin on the 12z run.
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