ATL: LAURA - Models

[Nederlander]

Yeah, GFS smokes the Golden Triangle on that run. CMC is running now. It hit around Destin/Sandestin on the 12z run.

Yeah not liking that run Steve. I’m right between Beaumont and Port Arthur. House flooded during Harvey, and still isn’t completely back together. More worried about wind with her though.

[Highteeld]

Ugly trends tonight on the GFS, UKmet, and ICON

[Astromanía]

Safe with this as well

[Fancy1001]

Hmon has started its run. Let's see if we end up with another category 5.

[cheezyWXguy]

00z CMC has a SW shift as well, though not as far south as the others so far. Looks to be headed for SELA.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc shifted pretty good

[gfsperpendicular]

Pressure at landfall (00z):
UKMET - 950mb
ICON - 957mb
GFS - 959mb
CMC - 992mb
Euro - 999mb

Waiting on 00z from HMON (923 18z), HWRF (933 18z), NAVGEM (1000 18z)

[Nederlander]

Pressure at landfall (00z):
HWRF - 933mb
UKMET - 950mb
ICON - 957mb
GFS - 959mb
CMC - 992mb
Euro - 999mb

[Steve]

Yeah, it moved to us. Taken with the rest of the models, they must be liking that Atlantic high pressure. CMC also has a NNW/NW component after landfall - looks between NW and NNW. We'll see how long that continues. It kind of mirrors the ICON with a weak Marco leaving low pressure behind and west and then Laura comes up 2 days later.

*edit* the W component doesn't last long. It moves more N/NNE after another half day and looks to run up along the MS River on the Mississippi side.

[Steve]

Pressure at landfall (00z):
HWRF - 933mb
UKMET - 950mb
ICON - 957mb
GFS - 959mb
CMC - 992mb
Euro - 999mb

Hey Perp,

Where does the HWRF landfall if you have early access? Thanks.

[gfsperpendicular]

Pressure at landfall (00z):
HWRF - 933mb
UKMET - 950mb
ICON - 957mb
GFS - 959mb
CMC - 992mb
Euro - 999mb

Hey Perp,

Where does the HWRF landfall if you have early access? Thanks.

Sorry to let ya down Steve, but it appears I just have illiteracy. That's the 18z

[Steve]

NP. It's running now, and since it's within 4 days, it shouldn't that long for the plots I want to see to post.

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn’t get too excited with these model flip flops until
Laura gets closer to or in the Gulf. The potential strength
is what concerns me the most right now. I still think
somewhere along the mid LA coast is a good bet right now.

[stormlover2013]

I wouldn’t get too excited with these model flip flops until
Laura gets closer to or in the Gulf. The potential strength
is what concerns me the most right now. I still think
somewhere along the mid LA coast is a good bet right now.

All will depend on where it comes into gulf

[Steve]

I wouldn’t get too excited with these model flip flops until
Laura gets closer to or in the Gulf. The potential strength
is what concerns me the most right now. I still think
somewhere along the mid LA coast is a good bet right now.

Thing is though you have to be a little worried. Because if it's an eastern solution, it's not going to be in the Gulf but for a couple of days. If it takes a western solution - could be maybe a 1.5/2 days after that. Uncertainty is high.

[JayTX]

I wouldn’t get too excited with these model flip flops until
Laura gets closer to or in the Gulf. The potential strength
is what concerns me the most right now. I still think
somewhere along the mid LA coast is a good bet right now.

The problem is time is running out to issue evac orders for cities along the coast. Especially like you mentioned with the potential strength. I'm in SETX and I'm getting ready to bolt just in case. I want no part of this if the intensity forecasts are close.

[Fancy1001]

I'm getting worried about the hmon run.

My prediction is that we get to 915mb this run.

[txag2005]

I wouldn’t get too excited with these model flip flops until
Laura gets closer to or in the Gulf. The potential strength
is what concerns me the most right now. I still think
somewhere along the mid LA coast is a good bet right now.

The problem is time is running out to issue evac orders for cities along the coast. Especially like you mentioned with the potential strength. I'm in SETX and I'm getting ready to bolt just in case. I want no part of this if the intensity forecasts are close.

I’m in the Houston area and my fear is that everybody seems to think the danger is over given that Marco shifted east. Assuming clear guidance doesn’t come until maybe Monday, most people won’t take it serious until then. I’ve already heard gloating and whatever from a number of friends/coworkers who said this is another fear mongering thing.

I’m pretty nervous about a potential cat 3-4 with only a few days for prep and evac.

[Nederlander]

I wouldn’t get too excited with these model flip flops until
Laura gets closer to or in the Gulf. The potential strength
is what concerns me the most right now. I still think
somewhere along the mid LA coast is a good bet right now.

The problem is time is running out to issue evac orders for cities along the coast. Especially like you mentioned with the potential strength. I'm in SETX and I'm getting ready to bolt just in case. I want no part of this if the intensity forecasts are close.

I’m in the Houston area and my fear is that everybody seems to think the danger is over given that Marco shifted east. Assuming clear guidance doesn’t come until maybe Monday, most people won’t take it serious until then. I’ve already heard gloating and whatever from a number of friends/coworkers who said this is another fear mongering thing.

I’m pretty nervous about a potential cat 3-4 with only a few days for prep and evac.

We are still ~4 days out. Need to see the runs tomorrow before we latch on to anything. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if models trend back east again.

[supercane4867]

Both HWRF and HMON should be weaker upon entering the Gulf as they both keep the center further inland of Cuba.