ATL: LAURA - Models

[SoupBone]

The problem is time is running out to issue evac orders for cities along the coast. Especially like you mentioned with the potential strength. I'm in SETX and I'm getting ready to bolt just in case. I want no part of this if the intensity forecasts are close.

I’m in the Houston area and my fear is that everybody seems to think the danger is over given that Marco shifted east. Assuming clear guidance doesn’t come until maybe Monday, most people won’t take it serious until then. I’ve already heard gloating and whatever from a number of friends/coworkers who said this is another fear mongering thing.

I’m pretty nervous about a potential cat 3-4 with only a few days for prep and evac.

We are still ~4 days out. Need to see the runs tomorrow before we latch on to anything. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if models trend back east again.

It's why we don't hug single model runs.

HWRF is running right on top of Cuba. That seems further south.

[stormlover2013]

Way farther south

[chaser1]

I wouldn’t get too excited with these model flip flops until
Laura gets closer to or in the Gulf. The potential strength
is what concerns me the most right now. I still think
somewhere along the mid LA coast is a good bet right now.

All will depend on where it comes into gulf

Equally important is the "when factor". Reorganization following Laura's Summer Caribbean Island tour might well result in a delay of up to 12 hours or so. That could have downstream impact on what evolving steering nuances might be occurring by that time.

[Fancy1001]

Both HWRF and HMON should be weaker upon entering the Gulf as they both keep the center further inland of Cuba.

They did that the last run too, but both of them ended up as high category 4, low category 5.

Correction, hmon did, hwrf didn't.

[Steve]

Both HWRF and HMON should be weaker upon entering the Gulf as they both keep the center further inland of Cuba.

HMON is 987 at about 24.7N / 85.6W @ 60 hours

edit - 981mb @ 66 and shaping up.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=66

[supercane4867]

00z HWRF could end up similar to HMON with a landfall near TX/LA border.

[Beef Stew]

While both the HWRF and HMON come out of Cuba weaker, they do so more to the south. I wouldn't be surprised to see both of these runs keep Laura over the gulf longer, in which case starting off as a weaker system may be offset by having more time over water to intensify.

[supercane4867]

HMON shifted east this run. It was probably too far west to begin with.

[supercane4867]

[Garnetcat5]

Wouldn’t Marco deplete hot water and inhibit strengthening of Laura?

[Garnetcat5]

Wouldn’t Marco deplete hot water and inhibit strengthening of Laura?

[BigB0882]

HMON shifted east this run. It was probably too far west to begin with.

Another big shift east, for sure. Not sure of final landfall but I assume SW to SC LA? Curious to see some images for HWRF.

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn’t Marco deplete hot water and inhibit strengthening of Laura?

Not much. Marco isn't strong or deep enough to cause major upwelling considering the depth of the warm water.

[Nederlander]

HMON - cat 3/4 Vermillion Parish

[tarheelprogrammer]

HWRF coming in slightly weaker so far. More land interaction will be good news. It will likely not keep Laura from reaching cat 3 though.

[Blinhart]

https://i.ibb.co/tzVWdC5/23-B1-D50-E-789-E-446-D-AE73-E14-B4-FA01-B98.png


HMON - cat 3/4 Vermillion Parish

Just what I want to see, that 988 in the picture above the eye is just about over my house. I don't want to see that.

[Steve]

HWRF coming in slightly weaker so far. More land interaction will be good news. It will likely not keep Laura from reaching cat 3 though.

HWRF looks to put the beatdown on the Bayou. Morgan City, Houma, Golden Meadow, Grand Isle, Cut Off, Cocodrie, etc. get it bad. Looks like an Andrew 2 landfall spot but maybe a hair east of there. 942 and formidable.

[BigB0882]

Is it just me or does the HMON show a very tiny storm? I know this hasn’t been anything huge but that looks smaller than I recall on other model runs.

[Steve]

HWRF looks to keep this cranking inland. We all know that sometimes it can get structure uncanny. Luckily this is 4 days away, but I wonder if it's going to buzzsaw through the South? Sometimes storms weaken pretty quickly once inland. They still have a punch but not that hurricane punch. Hopefully this is wrong, and I'll pull some more plots when they come in.

[SoupBone]

So the HMON and HWRF basically meeting together near central Louisiana. The HMON shift was pretty big, the HWRF was less but noticeable.