ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE values were very low around Marco last night.
They are now starting to go up and Marco seems to be ingesting more unstable air now.
Convection is on top of the CoC with a slight impingement of SW shear seen.
Trof took a big reorg last night.
Recon is running upper-level drop mission now in the Rossby Wave.

[GCANE]

CAPE increasing across the GoM

[3090]

HMON goes up Mobile Bay but continues to weaken. That's a nightmare scenario dodged because of a weaker storm, but there are lots of homes along the rivers and places subject to tidal flooding.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=45

Blah blah blah....on the HMON. The NHC at this point has the track solidified, say within 50 miles either side of a forecast point, for landfall. The only thing remaining and is always the somewhat unpredictable at this juncture, is intensity at landfall. If you are worried about the landfall location, you can know that it will be slightly east or west of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Put the models away at this point. Just my .02 from watching the pros at the NHC for over 30 years.

[GCANE]

Drop 15
Very dry air at the 250 to 350 mb level is currently beating on Marco pretty hard.
He seems to be deflecting it though at the mid levels.

[3090]

CAPE increasing across the GoM

https://i.imgur.com/SEyXLiG.gif

Been following your posts for sometime. The information you provide, I find very informative. I would say the NHC is on point, would you say so? The CAPE, in this case, as you mention, probably will help Marco short term, prior to his landfall, no?

[GCANE]

Drop 19 - the infeed.
Air is about as saturated as can be mid-level and up.
A bit drier boundary layer to mid-level accounting for the moderate CAPE at this point.
CAPE is going up in the GoM.
See what happens.

[GCANE]

CAPE increasing across the GoM

https://i.imgur.com/SEyXLiG.gif

Been following your posts for sometime. The information you provide, I find very informative. I would say the NHC is on point, would you say so? The CAPE, in this case, as you mention, probably will help Marco short term, prior to his landfall, no?

Much thanks 3090.
Yes, as you say, the track is likely solid. NHC has an excellent record.
Intensity is very very tricky.
The trof pulled back as expected which helps reduce shear.
CAPE and Theta-E are the two main parameters I am watching now.
This is all mesoscale-level events influencing Marco. Something the models can't forecast well because of their limited spatial resolution.
Its a lot like forecasting tornadoes in the Plains and Midwest.
Just have to take it more moment by moment and try to figure out what may happen next.

[Blinhart]

HMON goes up Mobile Bay but continues to weaken. That's a nightmare scenario dodged because of a weaker storm, but there are lots of homes along the rivers and places subject to tidal flooding.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=45

Blah blah blah....on the HMON. The NHC at this point has the track solidified, say within 50 miles either side of a forecast point, for landfall. The only thing remaining and is always the somewhat unpredictable at this juncture, is intensity at landfall. If you are worried about the landfall location, you can know that it will be slightly east or west of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Put the models away at this point. Just my .02 from watching the pros at the NHC for over 30 years.

Normally I would agree with you, but this is something that hasn't happened too often, so we aren't sure of what is happening, and the shift of 50 miles is a big difference

[Hurricane Mike]

Marco is trying hard bursting, but that wind shear is just ripping him too hard. I think 70-75 mph until landfall is reasonable.

[GCANE]

Radar, 2 hrs ago

[tiger_deF]

Marco is trying hard bursting, but that wind shear is just ripping him too hard. I think 70-75 mph until landfall is reasonable.

I honestly think we will get a cat 2 from this, it really looks to be strengthening on IR and visible, and we are already on the edge of hurricane intensity

[GCANE]

Recon about to take off

[GCANE]

Marco is trying hard bursting, but that wind shear is just ripping him too hard. I think 70-75 mph until landfall is reasonable.

I honestly think we will get a cat 2 from this, it really looks to be strengthening on IR and visible, and we are already on the edge of hurricane intensity

Rotating hot towers been firing for a long time.
Looks like a warm-core feature maybe developing on IR.

[GCANE]

IR a bit more symmetrical.
The rotating towers appear to be taking a bite out of shear.
Maybe a Cat1 before Recon is all said and done.

[GCANE]

That warm-core feature is getting pretty distinct on WV and this ain't no PV Streamer, that's for sure.

[GCANE]

Recon descending

[GCANE]

The core is flushing out the stable air.
CAPE now 3000 in the core.

[GCANE]

Big ass tower going off now, obscuring the eye.

[xironman]

Looks like they switch on the SFMR, close to TS winds now. It will be interesting to see the radii if Marco has gotten any larger.

[Steve]

HMON goes up Mobile Bay but continues to weaken. That's a nightmare scenario dodged because of a weaker storm, but there are lots of homes along the rivers and places subject to tidal flooding.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=45

Blah blah blah....on the HMON. The NHC at this point has the track solidified, say within 50 miles either side of a forecast point, for landfall. The only thing remaining and is always the somewhat unpredictable at this juncture, is intensity at landfall. If you are worried about the landfall location, you can know that it will be slightly east or west of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Put the models away at this point. Just my .02 from watching the pros at the NHC for over 30 years.

Thanks for the valuable information ma’am.