ATL: LAURA - Models

[sphelps8681]

This is not going to be good if they are comparing this to a Rita storm. Was here for the storms that hit my area from Rita to Harvey. Rita was bad. No power for around a month afterward.

[Steve]

I’ll argue with EURO because of how it’s performed
so far with Laura....remember it saw nothing much
just a couple of days ago. IMO

0z Euro Ensembles are strong and once again clustered near TX. Mean is southwest of the operational 0z Euro run now.

It's always hard to argue against the EU as landfall gets closer.

Yeah I know. I'm talking about 96 hours in. It's one of the best.

[Senobia]

Does anyone have an idea at what point the models stop flip flopping and stay on one course?

Just curious when these it's going east, no I mean west, wait, it might be east arguments between the models might end.

[HouTXmetro]

That's a big shift East for the EURO. I think the denizens of Houston can breath a little sigh of relief. Not so much 60 - 100 miles west near the TX/LA border and Louisiana.

[cheezyWXguy]

That's a big shift East for the EURO. I think the denizens of Houston can breath a little sigh of relief. Not so much 60 - 100 miles west near the TX/LA border and Louisiana.

Do you not think it could shift back? Kind of far out to tell anyone they’re in the clear

[SoupBone]

That's a big shift East for the EURO. I think the denizens of Houston can breath a little sigh of relief. Not so much 60 - 100 miles west near the TX/LA border and Louisiana.

The Euro shift isn't that much but definitely enough if you're living in Houston. However, as we've seen, these model flips will likely continue to happen, though there is a pretty tight track now towards the Tex/LA border.

[Cpv17]

Biting my nails in Houston. This could be a rough one.

If this ends up in Galveston or south of there which seems unlikely as of right now then Houston would have big problems. If it ends up east of there then Houston would be spared for the most part.

[St0rmTh0r]

Thank goodness much more model consistency today. Looks like strong atlantic high pressure and the GA islands sparing Florida this time. At the same time, my heart goes out to the people on SE Tx/La that will probably experience a major hurricane landfall in a few days. Even the global models now dropping down into the low 950 mb range at landfall. Let's hope we don't see a CAT 4 or 5 storm out of Laura.

From what I've seen when the global models all go that low the storm ends up over performing 9 times out of 10. Would not be shocked to see CAT 5! With the way this year has went it would not be shocking at all.

[Steve]

With Marco exceeding expectations intensity-wise, should we be on the lookout for another moderate shift east, or are we past that point? I'm selfishly thankful for the western-shift from Laura (and still thinking about you guys further west), but as I understand it, a stronger Marco would run a more northerly route, effecting the path of Laura as well. Yea?

I don't know because it's hard to know the path it's going to take. I think last night only one model took it up and out and the majority of the rest did anything from move NW after landfall all the way to coming up to the coast and never hitting because the nose of the ridge just pushed it west where it petered out. Those models show a phenomenon where in two days time, a pattern reversal could allow for one system to die off and another to reach Cat 3 or Cat 4. Such is the Gulf sometimes.

One thing I'd like to add about the trough. The last few days have been hot, but the nights have been nice and breezy. As what's left behind backs west, ranfall from its eastern edge is lined up and about to start moving through. You can see on the loop in the link the actual weather on the east side of the trough.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[HouTXmetro]

That's a big shift East for the EURO. I think the denizens of Houston can breath a little sigh of relief. Not so much 60 - 100 miles west near the TX/LA border and Louisiana.

The Euro shift isn't that much but definitely enough if you're living in Houston. However, as we've seen, these model flips will likely continue to happen, though there is a pretty tight track now towards the Tex/LA border.

Needless to say my elderly mother lives in the Southeastern Suburbs of Houston. I have to make a game time decision tomorrow morning as to if I will fly in from DC and help her prepare. Today's model runs will impact my decision so I really need to have consensus by tonight that Houston will be out of the woods and on the cleaner side of Laura.

[setxweathergal64]

Biting my nails in Houston. This could be a rough one.

If this ends up in Galveston or south of there which seems unlikely as of right now then Houston would have big problems. If it ends up east of there then Houston would be spared for the most part.

And by the time we know for sure, we will be fighting remnants of marco and many other evacuees. Uggh it is so hard to wait and see to know when to get the heck out of dodge.

[Cpv17]

Just throwing this out there. I know the 06z Euro operational run has a central Louisiana hit but the control is actually into Freeport.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

[Steve]

Does anyone have an idea at what point the models stop flip flopping and stay on one course?

Just curious when these it's going east, no I mean west, wait, it might be easy arguments between the models might end.

Lol. No. But as we all know, the models perform increasingly well as time gets closer to a forecast point. So maybe instead of recurve vs. out-to-sea, you start seeing Miami to Brownsville. As they hone in, especially inside of 5 days, the run-to-run changes usually get considerably smaller. So New Orleans to Freeport maybe becomes Galveston to Morgan City which then becomes Triangle to Vermilion Bay and ultimately they'll all (or the majority) will come together within 25-50 miles or so. The concern here is that we really haven't seen this setup before. The pros at the NHC had been saying how low-confidence their forecast tracks were all things considered. Would anyone bet against something wild or a curve-ball happening at this point?

[HouTXmetro]

Just throwing this out there. I know the 06z Euro operational run has a central Louisiana hit but the control is actually into Freeport.

Can you explain the difference in reliability between the two?

[Nederlander]

Biting my nails in Houston. This could be a rough one.

If this ends up in Galveston or south of there which seems unlikely as of right now then Houston would have big problems. If it ends up east of there then Houston would be spared for the most part.

And by the time we know for sure, we will be fighting remnants of marco and many other evacuees. Uggh it is so hard to wait and see to know when to get the heck out of dodge.

My plan is to see what the models look like tomorrow night and leave early Tuesday if there are no more drastic swings

[Cpv17]

Just throwing this out there. I know the 06z Euro operational run has a central Louisiana hit but the control is actually into Freeport.

Can you explain the difference in reliability between the two?

The operational run is like the main run of the model that everyone sees. Then you have the models ensemble members. The Euro has 51 total ensemble members each showing a different path. If you were to average all 51 of those members together then you would get a mean average into Freeport. The operational run is well east of its own ensembles. Most people say that the ensembles are more important to pay attention to than the operationals. So there’s that.

[TheStormExpert]

This is the the most bullish I've seen EPS (Euro Ensembles) so far this season!

[HouTXmetro]

Just throwing this out there. I know the 06z Euro operational run has a central Louisiana hit but the control is actually into Freeport.

Can you explain the difference in reliability between the two?

The operational run is like the main run of the model that everyone sees. Then you have the models ensemble members. The Euro has 51 total ensemble members each showing a different path. If you were to average all 51 of those members together then you would get a mean average into Freeport. The operational run is well east of its own ensembles. Most people say that the ensembles are more important to pay attention to than the operationals. So there’s that.

Do you have a link to the UPDATED Euro ensembles that correspond with the latest Operational run time stamp? I think it's 06z right? Thanks in advance.

[HouTXmetro]

Can you explain the difference in reliability between the two?

The operational run is like the main run of the model that everyone sees. Then you have the models ensemble members. The Euro has 51 total ensemble members each showing a different path. If you were to average all 51 of those members together then you would get a mean average into Freeport. The operational run is well east of its own ensembles. Most people say that the ensembles are more important to pay attention to than the operationals. So there’s that.

Do you have a link to the UPDATED Euro ensembles that correspond with the latest Operational run time stamp? I think it's 06z right? Thanks in advance.

Sorry, I see it's posted now.