ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Specifically for Galveston/Houston, this setup in the models will be literally threading the needle. From Beaumont to Lake Charles it would be a Rita style setup. Any further west she goes, and Galveston/Houston would have major issues.

Going to be a nail biter for sure. I was stuck for 24 hours during Rita and ended up in the eye at Woodville. Never again. I've moved 60 miles north from where I was then and will just stick it out.

I am in Lumberton and road out Rita. We left after about a week of no power to go further north. Ended up having to go to Dallas because of no places before that. Came back and still no power for about a month. Riding it out again.

Not sure if those were some gravity waves showing up there, but it almost looks like it.

[Nederlander]

I only see two potential roadblocks for Laura once it gets into the Gulf: time and internal structure. The first shouldn’t be much of a big deal; it has ~48 hours between exiting Cuba and making landfall, which is close to the time Harvey had. However, the second will probably be more significant, because so far Laura’s circulation has remained quite broad despite going over Hispaniola. A larger circulation will make it more difficult to tighten up and bomb out, but there’s still plenty of time for this to change.

The scary part is she will have a large anticyclone aloft and ULLs to the NW and SE providing all the ventilation she needs; plus 85-90 degree waters help.

[stormlover2013]

I only see two potential roadblocks for Laura once it gets into the Gulf: time and internal structure. The first shouldn’t be much of a big deal; it has ~48 hours between exiting Cuba and making landfall, which is close to the time Harvey had. However, the second will probably be more significant, because so far Laura’s circulation has remained quite broad despite going over Hispaniola. A larger circulation will make it more difficult to tighten up and bomb out, but there’s still plenty of time for this to change.

It’s late August, water 90, this will be cat 3/4 mark it down

[toad strangler]

I only see two potential roadblocks for Laura once it gets into the Gulf: time and internal structure. The first shouldn’t be much of a big deal; it has ~48 hours between exiting Cuba and making landfall, which is close to the time Harvey had. However, the second will probably be more significant, because so far Laura’s circulation has remained quite broad despite going over Hispaniola. A larger circulation will make it more difficult to tighten up and bomb out, but there’s still plenty of time for this to change.

It’s late August, water 90, this will be cat 3/4 mark it down

If I had to stick my neck out and make a prediction, which I really hate doing because it's always just a crapshoot, I'd bet on a Cat 4 through the Gulf and landfalling as a Cat 3

[supercane4867]

Much of the 11AM forecast track stays offshore into the Caribbean except Southern Cuba.

[sponger]

I only see two potential roadblocks for Laura once it gets into the Gulf: time and internal structure. The first shouldn’t be much of a big deal; it has ~48 hours between exiting Cuba and making landfall, which is close to the time Harvey had. However, the second will probably be more significant, because so far Laura’s circulation has remained quite broad despite going over Hispaniola. A larger circulation will make it more difficult to tighten up and bomb out, but there’s still plenty of time for this to change.

It’s late August, water 90, this will be cat 3/4 mark it down

A scary set up. It is still possible this gets disrupted by Cuba. If it is well organized on departure it will be a scary couple of days for LA and TX.

[stormlover2013]

Nhc shifted track more west

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Radar suggest the MLC is just south of Gonave Island. NHC has the LLC just north of Gonave Island. If this is the case, the MLC and LLC is the closest they've been throughout Laura's entire life.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I only see two potential roadblocks for Laura once it gets into the Gulf: time and internal structure. The first shouldn’t be much of a big deal; it has ~48 hours between exiting Cuba and making landfall, which is close to the time Harvey had. However, the second will probably be more significant, because so far Laura’s circulation has remained quite broad despite going over Hispaniola. A larger circulation will make it more difficult to tighten up and bomb out, but there’s still plenty of time for this to change.

It’s late August, water 90, this will be cat 3/4 mark it down

If I had to stick my neck out and make a prediction, which I really hate doing because it's always just a crapshoot, I'd bet on a Cat 4 through the Gulf and landfalling as a Cat 3

I am going with a strong cat 4 into east-central LA coast.

[HoustonFrog]

Nhc shifted track more west

How far?

[cajungal]

Nhc shifted track more west

How far?

Sabine River

[Aric Dunn]

center appears a good deal wsw of the NHC advisory per recent data and radar. heading more westerly

[Sanibel]

More south than expected...Means strong High...

Should clear that lower arm of Haiti soon and be over water...

[toad strangler]

NHC still being very conservative with the strength on the cone (understandably).

[aspen]

I only see two potential roadblocks for Laura once it gets into the Gulf: time and internal structure. The first shouldn’t be much of a big deal; it has ~48 hours between exiting Cuba and making landfall, which is close to the time Harvey had. However, the second will probably be more significant, because so far Laura’s circulation has remained quite broad despite going over Hispaniola. A larger circulation will make it more difficult to tighten up and bomb out, but there’s still plenty of time for this to change.

It’s late August, water 90, this will be cat 3/4 mark it down

I’m not doubting this has an excellent chance at being a major. Nearly everything is perfect for a significant phase of RI when it reach the Gulf. However, I’m just pointing out the potential for some circumstances to slightly limit it (Cat 3 instead of a Cat 4).

[Kazmit]

NHC still being very conservative with the strength on the cone (understandably).

At 96 hrs it says 100mph but it's well inland. If the forecast points were timed differently I think they would be showing a major.

[ATCcane]

Guantanamo Bay Radar

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate ... e=PPIZH240

[tolakram]

[Cpv17]

https://imgur.com/MxXXIVD

That looks like it’s over Grande Cayemite.

[tolakram]

saved loop