ATL: LAURA - Models

[Nederlander]

It’s also worth mentioning that the Euro is likely under doing the strength of Laura.

[Nederlander]

The operational run is like the main run of the model that everyone sees. Then you have the models ensemble members. The Euro has 51 total ensemble members each showing a different path. If you were to average all 51 of those members together then you would get a mean average into Freeport. The operational run is well east of its own ensembles. Most people say that the ensembles are more important to pay attention to than the operationals. So there’s that.

Do you have a link to the UPDATED Euro ensembles that correspond with the latest Operational run time stamp? I think it's 06z right? Thanks in advance.

Sorry, I see it's posted now.

Those are the 0z ensembles

[Cpv17]

Do you have a link to the UPDATED Euro ensembles that correspond with the latest Operational run time stamp? I think it's 06z right? Thanks in advance.

Sorry, I see it's posted now.

Those are the 0z ensembles

I don’t have a link to the 06z but I heard that it’s fairly similar.

[bella_may]

Get ready for more windshield wipers today with the models

[ATCcane]

Sorry, I see it's posted now.

Those are the 0z ensembles

I don’t have a link to the 06z but I heard that it’s fairly similar.

Ryan Maue tweeted the Euro 6z ensembles. The strongest members overall were still west of the operational run.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=-3

I know it’s the nam but we are 3-4 days out

[stormlover2013]

Get ready for more windshield wipers today with the models

U do realize that the center is more south, I don’t see u will see to much wind Shield whiping

[cp79]

Those are the 0z ensembles

I don’t have a link to the 06z but I heard that it’s fairly similar.

Ryan Maue tweeted the Euro 6z ensembles. The strongest members overall were still west of the operational run.

I don’t think there will be much changing. I think models have a firm hold on this right now and it’s direction. The fact they’ve shifted back to the west cements that. Anywhere from Mobile to Corpus still needs to monitor but I think Louisiana is the prime spot right now.

Curveball would be if the center gets ripped apart in the mountains and reforms somewhere else. I’m completely stunned right now how it’s held together. Never saw a storm hold on like this in these mountains thus far.

[jaguars_22]

The Nam has been constantly shifting west with Marco and Laura. Now central Texas coast in play in my opinion

[ATCcane]

Get ready for more windshield wipers today with the models

Maybe...but its seems they are starting to narrow the target area down to between the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Unless there's something crazy that happens I'd expect there to be smaller swings in that area.

[bella_may]

Get ready for more windshield wipers today with the models

Maybe...but its seems they are starting to narrow the target area down to between the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Unless there's something crazy that happens I'd expect there to be smaller swings in the that area.

Some have already started going back east into central LA this morning

[Cpv17]

Get ready for more windshield wipers today with the models

Maybe...but its seems they are starting to narrow the target area down to between the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Unless there's something crazy that happens I'd expect there to be smaller swings in the that area.

Yeah I think anywhere between Galveston to Vermilion Bay really needs to pay attention to this.

[Cpv17]

The Nam has been constantly shifting west with Marco and Laura. Now central Texas coast in play in my opinion

I would say that your area and my area are safe as of right now.

[stormlover2013]

Get ready for more windshield wipers today with the models

Maybe...but its seems they are starting to narrow the target area down to between the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Unless there's something crazy that happens I'd expect there to be smaller swings in the that area.

Yeah I think anywhere between Galveston to Vermilion Bay really needs to pay attention to this.

Don’t see it getting to vermillion bay

[stormlover2013]

Nhc shifted it more west

[BigB0882]

Get ready for more windshield wipers today with the models

Maybe...but its seems they are starting to narrow the target area down to between the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Unless there's something crazy that happens I'd expect there to be smaller swings in the that area.

Some have already started going back east into central LA this morning

What are “some?” I only saw the 6z Euro do that. I thought all the other 6z models went West?

[bella_may]

Maybe...but its seems they are starting to narrow the target area down to between the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Unless there's something crazy that happens I'd expect there to be smaller swings in the that area.

Some have already started going back east into central LA this morning

What are “some?” I only saw the 6z Euro do that. I thought all the other 6z models went West?

Well the ICON is currently more NE than the previous run although it hasn’t finished yet

[stormlover2013]

Some have already started going back east into central LA this morning

What are “some?” I only saw the 6z Euro do that. I thought all the other 6z models went West?

Well the ICON is currently more NE than the previous run although it hasn’t finished yet

That’s the icon, center is already more south than nhc, watch the nhc forecast, tvcn, ukie, gfs, euro and etc

[Highteeld]

Much weaker Icon today, going with the northeasterly track favored by the NHC vs gfs/euro/uk

[BigB0882]

The ICON ends very similarly to the 6Z Euro in both location and intensity. But, it’s the ICON. I’ll wait for the GFS and HWRF before believing there is any kind of eastward swing.