ATL: LAURA - Models

[Highteeld]

Seems to be doing a bit of Fujiwhara with the remnants of Marco. Not sure how likely that is given the track of Marco should be well north of what the ICON is predicting. It did a poor job initiating Marco

[Nederlander]

Wouldn’t be surprised with another couple of slight shifts west toward Bolivar either based on how Laura is acting in the short term. As others have said, Galveston to Vermillion as a major seems like the most likely scenario at this point. The next couple of model runs should be pretty telling if they are consistent.

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON weaker central Louisiana landfall:

[HouTXmetro]

Isn't the ICON one of the least reliable models when it comes to track compared to others? Kinda like the old GFDL? lol

[Nederlander]

No major change in GFS through 54 hr.

[Cpv17]

No major change in GFS through 54 hr.

It initialized too far north. Might need to throw it out.

[SoupBone]

The GFS has Marco as a wave riding the Louisiana coast, as Laura enters the GoM. The she looks to quickly bump NW heading toward the central GoM. The high to her east looks potent.

[Highteeld]

GFS is more or less copying the ICON with a much weaker and northerly storm. I'm not buying it yet since I don't think either have a good handle on Marco.

[PTPatrick]

Actually track wise through 72 it’s about where it was but a bit weaker.

[Nederlander]

Stays relatively weak, but then begins bombing out near 26N 90W

[Highteeld]

Actually track wise through 72 it’s about where it was but a bit weaker.

I see now. I was comparing it to the 0z run last night. Didn't check the 6z run. Still well north of the 0z run though.

[shiny-pebble]

GFS and ICON initialized pretty far north from where the center actually is

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[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS following the ICON with a weaker system. Hopefully, that is a trend in the weaker direction throughout the next few days. Something just feels off about it though, given the environment and the water temperatures.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS goes up the entire spine of Cuba, which results in a slightly weaker storm in the Gulf (previous runs still had it hugging the northern coast of Cuba). I'll point out that the actual NHC track is further south, into the Caribbean even.

[gqhebert]

12z GFS initialized too far north- track was slightly nudged westward and a bit weaker

[PTPatrick]

971 approaching same area as 06z, sw la, instead of 954 mb

I still think there could be some subtle changes left or right. We are 84 hrs out so still some time to swing but looking like vermilion to houston is the target zone.

[Kazmit]

Not sure why the GFS doesn't show strengthening until halfway across the Gulf. Structural issues?

[tolakram]

12Z GFS. Note it appears to have init'ed a little too far north. Not sure how much it matters.

[Nederlander]

GFS with a Cat 2 near Holly Beach, right where Rita (05) came in at.

[gqhebert]

Not sure why the GFS doesn't show strengthening until halfway across the Gulf. Structural issues?

its coming in weaker on this run because it initialized too far north and has it tracking across the entire lenght of Cuba.... there will be changes when new data goes into the models