ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Latest recon pass suggests we might have a hurricane!

151900 2454N 08716W 8429 01478 //// +189 //// 148063 065 063 002 01
151930 2453N 08715W 8423 01484 9977 +189 //// 151064 067 064 004 01
152000 2453N 08714W 8433 01470 9975 +188 //// 156066 069 064 003 01
152030 2452N 08713W 8439 01466 //// +186 //// 161065 070 068 001 01
152100 2451N 08712W 8421 01484 //// +186 //// 166066 067 069 001 01
152130 2450N 08711W 8442 01467 //// +185 //// 172068 070 070 000 05

[tailgater]

I smell an upgrade, crazy rainfall rates.

[xironman]

Latest recon pass suggests we might have a hurricane!

151900 2454N 08716W 8429 01478 //// +189 //// 148063 065 063 002 01
151930 2453N 08715W 8423 01484 9977 +189 //// 151064 067 064 004 01
152000 2453N 08714W 8433 01470 9975 +188 //// 156066 069 064 003 01
152030 2452N 08713W 8439 01466 //// +186 //// 161065 070 068 001 01
152100 2451N 08712W 8421 01484 //// +186 //// 166066 067 069 001 01
152130 2450N 08711W 8442 01467 //// +185 //// 172068 070 070 000 05

Just about to post that. NHC was on the mark saying the better environment could put it over the top

[GCANE]

Cat 1
SFMR, Unflagged, 30 Sec 68.0 knts
Makes sense, FL winds progressively increasing on each pass of the NE quad.

[Highteeld]

Hurricane likely

[tailgater]

I think the eye may have contracted even more, waiting on VDM

[xironman]

Cat 1
SFMR, Unflagged, 30 Sec 68.0 knts
Makes sense, FL winds progressively increasing on each pass of the NE quad.

Per the visible the storm is still expanding the CDO a bit to the SW, so it could fight off the shear for a while.

[aspen]

An upgrade is inevitable. Almost 70 kt FL and SFMR winds, and the pressure has dropped a bit too.

[GCANE]

Seems to be keeping pace with the anticyclone to the SW.
Both moving NNW.

[Highteeld]

Fairly broad area of flight level hurricane force winds as well. This has room to get stronger IMO.

[shiny-pebble]

Lots of lightning in the eyewall

[3090]

Latest recon pass suggests we might have a hurricane!

151900 2454N 08716W 8429 01478 //// +189 //// 148063 065 063 002 01
151930 2453N 08715W 8423 01484 9977 +189 //// 151064 067 064 004 01
152000 2453N 08714W 8433 01470 9975 +188 //// 156066 069 064 003 01

WHOA...he is rapidly expanding to his west now which is a first. So it seems to coincide with his winds.
152030 2452N 08713W 8439 01466 //// +186 //// 161065 070 068 001 01
152100 2451N 08712W 8421 01484 //// +186 //// 166066 067 069 001 01
152130 2450N 08711W 8442 01467 //// +185 //// 172068 070 070 000 05

[GCANE]

Latest hot tower that fired looks to have been bigger and colder.

[Highteeld]

Lots of lightning in the eyewall

https://i.imgur.com/LwOKD2R.jpg

Eyewall must be more complete than last night. Winds in the western side are much higher now

[Kazmit]

Likely a hurricane now. Special advisory coming?

[Beef Stew]

Likely a hurricane now. Special advisory coming?

I would expect it; maybe at 11 AM CDT.

[GCANE]

Eye coming in view on WV

[xironman]

People in southern LA should keep an eye on this one, though it is small it might stall and give exceptional rains there as it washes out to the west.

[tolakram]

761
URNT12 KNHC 231550
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142020
A. 23/15:16:00Z
B. 24.84 deg N 087.38 deg W
C. 850 mb 1372 m
D. 995 mb
E. 290 deg 27 kt
F. OPEN E
G. C4
H. 64 kt
I. 227 deg 3 nm 15:15:00Z
J. 315 deg 56 kt
K. 222 deg 1 nm 15:15:30Z
L. 69 kt
M. 100 deg 11 nm 15:22:30Z
N. 181 deg 70 kt
O. 100 deg 11 nm 15:22:30Z
P. 18 C / 1494 m
Q. 24 C / 1425 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF301 0814A MARCO OB 24
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 100 / 11 NM 15:22:30Z
;

[gfsperpendicular]

4 miles? Wow