ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

Yeah, we have a winner

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix at 15:22:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 181° at 70kts (From the S at 80.6mph)

[MGC]

Can't recall a 4 mile eye.....talk about a microcane....MGC

[aspen]

I hope recon will go in for another pass. Just one more through the eastern side should be enough to confirm this is a hurricane.

[KWT]

Looks like we will have hurricane Marco.

These systems are classic knife edge systems that could end up both way over or way under estimate depending on how it copes with shear. Could be something to keep a very close eye on in the next 24hrs and hope it takes a haircut before landfall.

[supercane4867]

Marco 2020 is shaping up just like Marco 2008, which also featured a tiny eye on microwave.

[BigB0882]

12Z GFS pretty much kills this off and has it just meander west along the coast of LA. It’s insane the difference those of us in SELA are looking at compared to 24 hours ago. We may not even know there’s a storm tomorrow morning here in BTR.

[Kazmit]

One of my weather apps told me Marco has just been upgraded to a hurricane.

[Kazmit]

1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

[Beef Stew]

One of my weather apps told me Marco has just been upgraded to a hurricane.

NHC just made it official; 992 and 75 mph.

[KWT]

Despite the models making nothing of this to start with little Marco really has battled against the odds. Recon definitely justified it being upgraded.
Question is how much stronger can it get before land/shear increase...

[Steve]

Despite the models making nothing of this to start with little Marco really has battled against the odds. Recon definitely justified it being upgraded.
Question is how much stronger can it get before land/shear increase...

It's really hard to say. It's like it's going to get squeezed. You can see the push coming through the Bahamas, and you can see the trough to the west with its eastern boundary sort of SW/NE but moistening up and sliding west due to the retrograding piece of the trough that's splitting back in South Texas. Cool stuff to see IMHO.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[CrazyC83]

If Marco can stay insulated, I could see further intensification, but if the shear wins out, the collapse could be fast. It will be touch and go.

[xironman]

Almost due north now. The more it goes that way the less shear will destroy it.

[ThetaE]

I'm impressed with the expansion of the CDO on the western side of Marco over the past few hours. It's a sign that the storm may be overcoming the shear, at least in the short term. Prior to this, Marco always had a bit of a flat look on the west side.

[rolltide]

Marco looks like it's ripe for R.I. Small storm with improving conditions for strengthening.

[Kazmit]

Since Marco is becoming fairly strong could this upwell cooler water and be a hinderance for Laura? Or will it be minimal since it is small and quick moving?

[KWT]

If Marco can stay insulated, I could see further intensification, but if the shear wins out, the collapse could be fast. It will be touch and go.

Yeah it may go up and down pretty rapidly and exactly when that happens will determine whether it's a 2/3 on landfall or a TS. Still looks good for strengthening now but these can rapidly change.

[DucaCane]

The satellite presentation is looking very impressive. Is it possible Marco is going through RI? This may end up catching many off guard.

[northjaxpro]

If Marco can stay insulated, I could see further intensification, but if the shear wins out, the collapse could be fast. It will be touch and go.

This in a nutshell!

[johngaltfla]

Cat 1
SFMR, Unflagged, 30 Sec 68.0 knts
Makes sense, FL winds progressively increasing on each pass of the NE quad.

Radar presentation out of Tampa shows an intensifying storm for sure and winds are starting to pick up. Good luck to you guys in Louisiana!