ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[FixySLN]

These two systems aren't done throwing curveballs yet.

[otowntiger]

All major global models now stall Marco south of Louisiana as it's decapitated by strong wind shear then shove the remnant low westward off the LA coast with the low-level flow. Good possibility of that. Small storms are very delicate structures. It could go from a hurricane to nearly a depression in 6-8 hrs. It's the decoy storm. Laura means business.

. Ok- now you gotta give us your thoughts on Laura!

[ColdFusion]

Crazy looking situation in the center on the last few IR frames. Stranger if you watch it on loop.

https://i.ibb.co/Sv0LMXF/Capture.png

What in the 2020 heck is it doing? Is that a hot tower?

I think so, WV shows the pulse right there in the center, probably wont last long, just odd looking the way it happened so quickly.


c63 amg convertible 0 60

[MONTEGUT_LA]

We're all set for Marco. Got a couple cases of water bottles in the freezer, snacks and provisions and went and helped a friend get their house secured. Flashlights are together. Portable phone chargers are themselves charging. All cars are gassed up and ready to roll in the event Laura throws us a surprise. But I'm feeling a little better about our area based on last night and today's adjustments. Hopefully we'll get a couple days of mid-grade weather action only out of the two-storm setup.

We on our way to Monroe to stay with family. My kids staying in Montegut and move to houma if it gets bad enough... I'll be on the board and give updates as I get them...marco is not going to be a issue unless we get a break in the levees. With Laura uncertainty, I prefer to take a mini-vacation.

[wxman57]

Shear is getting to Marco now. It's not likely a hurricane any longer. Could weaken quickly over the next 24 hours.

[Ken711]

Shear is getting to Marco now. It's not likely a hurricane any longer. Could weaken quickly over the next 24 hours.

Confirms what NHC thought might happen.

While it is possible that Marco will weaken just prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system.

[wxman57]

Shear is getting to Marco now. It's not likely a hurricane any longer. Could weaken quickly over the next 24 hours.

Confirms what NHC thought might happen.

While it is possible that Marco will weaken just prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system.

But there is a big difference between 65 kts and 35 kts

[Ken711]

Shear is getting to Marco now. It's not likely a hurricane any longer. Could weaken quickly over the next 24 hours.

Confirms what NHC thought might happen.

While it is possible that Marco will weaken just prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system.

But there is a big difference between 65 kts and 35 kts

That's true. Do you see this weakening being a factor with Laura's intensity?

[pcolaman]

Is that an eye starting to form? Looking at IR sure looks like it. IMHO

[SunnyThoughts]

Is that an eye starting to form? Looking at IR sure looks like it. IMHO

See that as well. Storms moving in from the East here just east of Pensacola. Looks to be a stormy/rainy night and day tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Loop Current infeed to Macro maybe beginning to diminish.
CAPE in the Straits has dropped to 4500.

[Shawee]

Shear is getting to Marco now. It's not likely a hurricane any longer. Could weaken quickly over the next 24 hours.

Confirms what NHC thought might happen.

While it is possible that Marco will weaken just prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system.

Good view of dry air entrainment:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[wxman57]

Is that an eye starting to form? Looking at IR sure looks like it. IMHO

Nope, Marco is weakening, not strengthening. Looks considerably weaker than 6 hours ago.

[wxman57]

Here's a shot from my workstation. That buoy 120 miles to Marco's west has an east wind at 15 kts. Not what you'd expect with a hurricane so close by. Of course, Marco is tiny, and it's not likely a hurricane now. Shear will take its toll tonight. Center may be exposed before morning.

[ClarCari]

Shear is getting to Marco now. It's not likely a hurricane any longer. Could weaken quickly over the next 24 hours.

Confirms what NHC thought might happen.

While it is possible that Marco will weaken just prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system.

Good view of dry air entrainment:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Marco is obliterating that dry air and the other chunk to the west looks like it’s going southwest away from him so the dry air may not even be around once it takes whatever toll it does on Marco.
If the shear doesn’t do much to it either, Marco can easily make an Isaias come back, maybe even stronger who knows.

[hohnywx]

The claims of Marco's demise have been exaggerated:

Hurricane Marco Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Shortly after the 10 AM CDT advisory was issued, the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Marco measured SFMR
winds of 65 to 69 kt for several minutes. A dropsonde around the
same time also measured winds equivalent to 64 kt at the surface.
Based on these data, it was evident that Marco had strengthened
into a hurricane. Since that time, the convective pattern has
changed little, and the final leg of the aircraft mission did
not reveal any notable changes to the cyclone's intensity.
Therefore, the initial intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is
also in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from
SAB.

[Nimbus]

The tropical storm force windfield isn't huge yet.
We should see the winds shift around so they are from the north at the mid gulf buoy.
Marco is no longer moving at 20 mph is he?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42001

[PandaCitrus]

What is going on with Marco and Laura's NHC's track? They seem to be intersecting in the same Wed/Thur timeframe around the Louisiana/Texas coast???

Are they going to merge somehow and will Marco cause increase shear for Laura or will Laura obliterate what is left of Marco's remnants? Strange situation.

[wxman57]

To me, looks like the satellite appearance has degraded considerably since that 10am recon pass. I'm not sure how it could remain a TS along the LA coast all the way to Lake Charles as it cuts across the jetstream. I think that Marco will be a convectionless depression or remnant low as the low-level swirl tracks west off the La coast Tuesday.

[wxman57]

What is going on with Marco and Laura's NHC's track? They seem to be intersecting in the same Wed/Thur timeframe around the Louisiana/Texas coast???

Are they going to merge somehow and will Marco cause increase shear for Laura or will Laura obliterate what is left of Marco's remnants? Strange situation.

Marco will likely be long-gone by the time Laura arrives. The low-level cloud swirl should be tracing southward along the mid TX coast as Laura approaches. Laura won't even know it's there.