ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2721 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:20 pm

NDG wrote:Recon finding lower pressures with Laura. Pressure ~998mb, at 19.49N 74.55W

AF305 0813A LAURA HDOB 27 20200823
190330 1950N 07423W 6961 03147 //// +086 //// 107035 038 048 003 01
190400 1948N 07424W 6965 03141 //// +085 //// 103037 039 047 002 01
190430 1947N 07425W 6968 03135 0045 +088 //// 103033 035 041 004 01
190500 1945N 07426W 6963 03137 0033 +089 //// 100035 037 041 003 01
190530 1944N 07427W 6973 03121 9997 +103 +098 085027 034 040 001 01
190600 1942N 07428W 6962 03137 0000 +111 +092 076024 025 042 005 00
190630 1940N 07428W 6956 03135 0025 +096 //// 105009 025 042 006 01
190700 1938N 07427W 6950 03142 //// +090 //// 081004 009 043 005 01
190730 1936N 07427W 6969 03125 //// +096 //// 093008 009 042 002 01
190800 1935N 07427W 6976 03121 0006 +106 +092 124012 015 042 004 00
190830 1933N 07428W 6969 03130 0024 +100 +090 138014 016 042 008 00
190900 1931N 07429W 6962 03135 //// +088 //// 158019 020 040 004 01
190930 1930N 07430W 6969 03126 0012 +098 +095 151020 021 040 004 03
191000 1929N 07432W 6964 03127 9995 +109 +097 129014 020 040 004 03
191030 1928N 07433W 6965 03127 9984 +120 +088 128009 011 038 001 03
191100 1926N 07434W 6965 03125 9991 +113 +091 158011 012 038 002 03
191130 1925N 07435W 6966 03124 9992 +109 +095 160005 010 033 001 00
191200 1925N 07437W 6961 03130 9995 +106 +096 011007 012 026 000 00
191230 1924N 07439W 6969 03121 0000 +102 +099 356019 021 026 000 03
191300 1923N 07440W 6965 03129 //// +097 //// 355029 031 031 003 01
$$


Also nearly a due west motion since the 2 pm position from the NHC. 2 pm position was 19.4 N/74.3 W. Recon found the center close to 19.4 N/74.6 W.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2722 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:20 pm

Nearly 6mb deeper than the latest NHC update.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2723 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:20 pm

Jr0d wrote:Recon is showing sub-1000mb with the low being South of Gitmo, the strongest flight level winds were on the north coast of Cuba.

Definitely a broad circulation.


A core seems to be getting itself together though, at least in terms of pressure values. We'll see if it can consolidate.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2724 Postby SouthernBreeze » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:21 pm

Marco looks like he's weakening on satellite - wouldn't an earlier weakening affect Lauras trek thru gulf?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2725 Postby Jr0d » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Jr0d wrote:Recon is showing sub-1000mb with the low being South of Gitmo, the strongest flight level winds were on the north coast of Cuba.

Definitely a broad circulation.


A core seems to be getting itself together though, at least in terms of pressure values. We'll see if it can consolidate.


I'm thinking it will have a difficult time consolidating until it's clear of the mountains.

After last night I am not sure of anything.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2726 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:24 pm

Not too shabby on visual.

Recon indicates this is a very healthy storm for having just survived an overland trek of Hispaniola

Image
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2727 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:24 pm

It could very well miss the Sierra Maestra Mountains of Cuba if it keeps moving almost due West.

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Last edited by NDG on Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2728 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:25 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:Marco looks like he's weakening on satellite - wouldn't an earlier weakening affect Lauras trek thru gulf?

Weakening? It looks like it’s getting more organized if anything.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2729 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:28 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:Marco looks like he's weakening on satellite - wouldn't an earlier weakening affect Lauras trek thru gulf?

New hot tower going off in Marco.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2730 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:29 pm

"No tropical cyclone can ever survive the most rugged terrain in the Atlantic"

Laura - "Challenge accepted"
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2731 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:32 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:"No tropical cyclone can ever survive the most rugged terrain in the Atlantic"

Laura - "Challenge accepted"


"Hold my beer."
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2732 Postby hohnywx » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:32 pm

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2733 Postby Jr0d » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:34 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:"No tropical cyclone can ever survive the most rugged terrain in the Atlantic"

Laura - "Challenge accepted"


Not good in terms of flooding and landslides either. We have already seen some video of what is happening.

Haiti already having poor infrastructure makes these events much more destructive.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2734 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:35 pm

Sanibel wrote:Up the spine of Cuba now for its next speed break...


I think latest trends would suggest it clips SE Cuba but stay over water for a large chunk of the time based on recent trends. Though it's going to be a close call either way.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2735 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:39 pm

Sharp drop in the pressure profile near the center that recon found, Laura was just a tropical storm when she traveled over the mountains so no well established core to disrupt. New center developed in just a few hours once she got back over water. edit to add there is no Cuban coastline *due west* at that latitude.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2736 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:42 pm



What's interesting those are in different areas of the country, this would be both possibly hitting one state.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2737 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:47 pm

HMON is basically saying that Laura will go where Wxman57 said she would go.(Freeport-ish) As a cat 3, if I read that pressure right. Holy cow!!! This has been an impressive and large storm thusfar. Be safe everyone!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2738 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:49 pm

Unfortunately it looks like Jamaica is about to be pounded by heavy rains and TS strength winds for the next 12 hours or so, and just a couple days we would of thought they would of seen nothing from Ms. Laura.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2739 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:50 pm

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2740 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:02 pm

hohnywx wrote:
HurricaneEdouard wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I have a hard time believing that run, the Euro has been much worse this season than in recent years. It never even acknowledged Marco until it became a tropical cyclone.

I feel this bears repeating: EURO is not one of the more reliable models when it comes to intensity, nor are globals generally. Its legendary reputation stems from the fact that (ignoring the consensus aids, of course) it is the most reliable track model. EURO (and the GFS, for that matter) was one of the least accurate intensity models in 2019; HWRF was one of the most accurate, tendency to overintensify storms notwithstanding. This pattern is continuing in 2020.

https://i.imgur.com/fRHcYZB.png


Interesting stuff! I would have never thought the HWRF would be one of the most accurate, considering the dismissive nature towards it by many here (including a few pros). Thank you for sharing.

GFDL and HWRF were the go-tos for intensity on intensity on this board back in 2005-2008, so I'm surprised to hear HWRF's reputation has fallen behind its performance.

What I tend to see pros recommend (or what they should recommend, at any rate) is not relying on any one particular tool for forecasting, but rather pay attention to trends (both model trends with the storm itself since its formation, and climatological trends with storms of similar track so you can compensate for any systemic biases in the models e.g. the tendency for many models to underestimate ridges and overestimate troughs, thus the infamous rightward bias), the consensus aids, and how tightly the ensembles begin to consolidate or not (which reflects actual uncertainty in the forecast, unlike the essentially useless NHC "cone of uncertainty"); the HWRF is good for intensity, the EURO is good for track, but the most accurate forecasts for both track and intensity are the HCCA and TVCN/IVCN consensus tools and the FSU Superensemble (which is generally even slightly more accurate than the NHC official forecast for track and intensity, but all four are roughly comparable).
Last edited by HurricaneEdouard on Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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