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alienstorm wrote:If you look closely at the loop you can see the LLC being pulled westward into the building convention to its east.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=70&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_06&x=7282&y=6985.5
The GFS, UKMET, and regional hurricane models all indicate significant deepening, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward. Although not explicitly shown, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength.
Prepare for 1 category higher than.predicted..3 or 4 for nowKen711 wrote:From the NHC discussion, I hope everyone in its path takes the necessary precautions and stays safe.The GFS, UKMET, and regional hurricane models all indicate significant deepening, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward. Although not explicitly shown, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength.
Hammy wrote:HurricaneEdouard wrote:Hammy wrote:
So it's essentially just for entertainment intensity-wise prior to recon data. I did notice it had more realistic forecasts with Gonzalo once the plane got out there.
I wouldn't say it's just for entertainment - it has been remarkably consistent with Laura's intensity forecast compared to the other models and if a major hurricane verifies in the Gulf, it would have been realistic from the get-go regardless of recon data - but the way people incorrectly use it, as zhukm29 points out, probably is for entertainment. I used to be a regular back on the sadly now-dead FLHurricane forums and hypecasting, model wars and frenetic model-watching were always the problem compared to the actual long-term trends of the models themselves.
I was there too (I believe as Rabbit) and migrated here once it started fading. Sad as that was my introduction to the online weather community.
Are the HWRF's intensity forecasts best disregarded for storms that are yet to have recon flights?
aspen wrote:Just an unprofessional opinion: I think there’s a chance that Laura could become a weak hurricane if its center remains south of Cuba. This southward track would reduce interaction with Cuba’s mountains and put it within an area of 30-31C SSTs, so while inflow will be blocked, it could have favorable enough conditions to bump its intensity up a bit before crossing the west tip of the island and moving into the Gulf.
Kingarabian wrote:LarryWx wrote:So, the 12Z Euro has it landfall near 1,001 mb, which seems way out to lunch to me even when taking into account Marco's wake. OTOH, I think the HWRF's 928 mb is largely due to the HWRF being the HWRF and possibly not taking into account Marco's wake..
As of now, I'm wild guessing the average of the two at landfall: 965 mb with a likely range of 955-975 mb.
Hey Larry, always good to hear from you. I agree with your landfall pressure estimates. But I think the system could be stronger since Marco is moving fast, so the time it has to upwell could be reduced. Laura will also be moving at a steady clip meaning it could spend less time over upwelled waters. We shall see. So far it's not looking good.
NDG wrote:Laura is making landfall just east of the Naval Base, will avoid the highest Mountains to the west , the Sierra Maestra, if it keeps heading NW.
https://i.imgur.com/B3dyafS.gif
Steve wrote:Kingarabian wrote:LarryWx wrote:So, the 12Z Euro has it landfall near 1,001 mb, which seems way out to lunch to me even when taking into account Marco's wake. OTOH, I think the HWRF's 928 mb is largely due to the HWRF being the HWRF and possibly not taking into account Marco's wake..
As of now, I'm wild guessing the average of the two at landfall: 965 mb with a likely range of 955-975 mb.
Hey Larry, always good to hear from you. I agree with your landfall pressure estimates. But I think the system could be stronger since Marco is moving fast, so the time it has to upwell could be reduced. Laura will also be moving at a steady clip meaning it could spend less time over upwelled waters. We shall see. So far it's not looking good.
Love me some Larry. King, do you like that 955-975 range on a Texas landfall? Seems like 940’s could easily be in play.
jlauderdal wrote:Prepare for 1 category higher than.predicted..3 or 4 for nowKen711 wrote:From the NHC discussion, I hope everyone in its path takes the necessary precautions and stays safe.The GFS, UKMET, and regional hurricane models all indicate significant deepening, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward. Although not explicitly shown, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength.
Steve wrote:Hammy wrote:HurricaneEdouard wrote:I wouldn't say it's just for entertainment - it has been remarkably consistent with Laura's intensity forecast compared to the other models and if a major hurricane verifies in the Gulf, it would have been realistic from the get-go regardless of recon data - but the way people incorrectly use it, as zhukm29 points out, probably is for entertainment. I used to be a regular back on the sadly now-dead FLHurricane forums and hypecasting, model wars and frenetic model-watching were always the problem compared to the actual long-term trends of the models themselves.
I was there too (I believe as Rabbit) and migrated here once it started fading. Sad as that was my introduction to the online weather community.
Are the HWRF's intensity forecasts best disregarded for storms that are yet to have recon flights?
We no ****. Haha. You were a good poster back then too. That was my go to site as well. John and Mike were and are awesome. Ed made things tough and enforced overly technical and serious discussion and left out the human part that which I suppose still existed in general talk. That destroyed interest and I know a lot of us followed Ticka and Cycloneye to here. I tried to back but found it hard to navigate and would get lost. :/
My name here is taken after 1996's Hurricane Edouard, one of the first major hurricanes tracked on CFHC! Sanibel wrote:In my opinion Laura has taken a hit from Hispaniola and is about to take another worse one from Cuba...
boca wrote:NDG wrote:Laura is making landfall just east of the Naval Base, will avoid the highest Mountains to the west , the Sierra Maestra, if it keeps heading NW.
https://i.imgur.com/B3dyafS.gif
It looks like Laura is still moving north of due west. I just don’t see the NW movement.
Sanibel wrote:In my opinion Laura has taken a hit from Hispaniola and is about to take another worse one from Cuba...
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