ATL: LAURA - Models

[Ken711]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

[Blinhart]

I just don't see her going much further than 30 miles West of Port Arthur, or past Morgan City. I just hope she doesn't go up Grand Chenier. I can see her coming in as a Cat 4 weakening from a Cat 5, or maybe even as low as a Cat 3.

Blinhart, that's not a very good scenario for us to your south in Vermilion Parish. Do you really think that she could become a Cat 4?

unfortunately I don't see anything keeping this from getting all the way to Cat 5. But you know the shallow waters of our coast always gets the storms to start weakening some.

[La Breeze]

I just don't see her going much further than 30 miles West of Port Arthur, or past Morgan City. I just hope she doesn't go up Grand Chenier. I can see her coming in as a Cat 4 weakening from a Cat 5, or maybe even as low as a Cat 3.

Blinhart, that's not a very good scenario for us to your south in Vermilion Parish. Do you really think that she could become a Cat 4?

unfortunately I don't see anything keeping this from getting all the way to Cat 5. But you know the shallow waters of our coast always gets the storms to start weakening some.

True. Hopefully, we don't get a Cat 5.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON bit of a east shift. Hour 66:

[Kingarabian]

Blinhart, that's not a very good scenario for us to your south in Vermilion Parish. Do you really think that she could become a Cat 4?

unfortunately I don't see anything keeping this from getting all the way to Cat 5. But you know the shallow waters of our coast always gets the storms to start weakening some.

True. Hopefully, we don't get a Cat 5.

Just have to hope it doesn't move as fast when it peaks. Fast forward speed probably helped Michael remain a Cat.5.

[Ken711]

18z ICON bit of a east shift. Hour 66:
https://i.imgur.com/B7TmQgw.png

Was there any change in intensity?

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON bit of a east shift. Hour 66:
https://i.imgur.com/B7TmQgw.png

Was there any change in intensity?

It's about the same compared to the 12z.

18z ICON hour 72, 979mb landfall:

[cybercane]

marco is the telegram. laura is the mark, galveston to new orleans should be watching, cat 3-4 , and it will remain a hurricane over land for quite awhile IMHO

[stormlover2013]

Since y’all post icon I’ll post nam,

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2318&fh=75

[Nederlander]

So the model and ensemble trends paint a pretty clear picture even though it seems they keep flipping on us. As has been mentioned on here, it looks as though a stronger Laura in the GoM would likely lead to a western solution, i.e. TX whereas a weaker Laura is less influenced by the ridge leading to an eastern solution like central LA coast.

[SoupBone]

So the model and ensemble trends paint a pretty clear picture even though it seems they keep flipping on us. As has been mentioned on here, it looks as though a stronger Laura in the GoM would likely lead to a western solution, i.e. TX whereas a weaker Laura is less influenced by the ridge leading to an eastern solution like central LA coast.

Don't forget ridge strength. Some of the models have a more potent one, and others have shown a much weaker one. We still have a few runs left in the tank.

[Kingarabian]

So the model and ensemble trends paint a pretty clear picture even though it seems they keep flipping on us. As has been mentioned on here, it looks as though a stronger Laura in the GoM would likely lead to a western solution, i.e. TX whereas a weaker Laura is less influenced by the ridge leading to an eastern solution like central LA coast.

It's an odd situation. Stronger systems can feel even the slightest of weaknesses while weaker systems tend to go more west... It's why we see a fair amount of systems recurving east of Florida.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 6 + trend:

[Nederlander]

18z GFS hour 6 + trend:
https://i.imgur.com/34gnUkV.gif

And still initializing poorly, wow

[stormlover2013]

Lol that was so bad way off

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 00-24:

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS hours 00-24:
https://i.imgur.com/OheqKFZ.gif

About 4mb stronger this run through 24hr. Still initialized too far north though

[toad strangler]

18z GFS has Laura's "center" over terra firma for most of the Cuba tour. That's suspect.

[SoupBone]

Ok, asking again, who is responsible for initiating its location? How can you place it incorrectly 3 times in a row? I'm not being judgmental, genuinely curious. Is it one person's responsibility for placement?

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 24-48: