ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

Ok, asking again, who is responsible for initiating its location? How can you place it incorrectly 3 times in a row? I'm not being judgmental, genuinely curious. Is it one person's responsibility for placement?

From what I know, it's the model that fixes the center itself.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Even with poor initialization, GFS still is slightly stronger through 54 hours. Let's see what the rest of the run brings.

[ronjon]

500 mb ridge looks to be really weakening in this GFS run by 48 hrs.

[toad strangler]

Even with poor initialization, GFS still is slightly stronger through 54 hours. Let's see what the rest of the run brings.

#BOOM

THat's whats coming on the rest of 18z GFS

[HurricaneEdouard]

Ok, asking again, who is responsible for initiating its location? How can you place it incorrectly 3 times in a row? I'm not being judgmental, genuinely curious. Is it one person's responsibility for placement?

From what I know, it's the model that fixes the center itself.

This is correct.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 60 + trend. Further south this run. Might be Texas.

[Haris]

GFS going way more south. Central Texas coast I think so far is the trajectory on it

[toad strangler]

18z GFS shows Marco's remains playing follow the leader for a intensifying Laura

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 66:

[Highteeld]

This is an aggressive run of the GFS.

[shah83]

GFS is probably underdoing the change in intensity in the gulf.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Closing in on major hurricane status by hour 72.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 48-72:

[Highteeld]

Through hour 72, even slightly further south than the 0z run from last night

[SoupBone]

Round and round we go, which model winds, nobody knows.

[shiny-pebble]

Since it initialized poorly, could we infer it would be stronger and more southerly in reality?

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[Highteeld]

based off the thermodynamic and shear conditions, this would be exploding much faster than the GFS might suggest, and the GFS is nothing to sneeze at hour 78

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS about to make landfall:

[gqhebert]

18z even with poor initialization being too far north...still coming in further south and stronger

[toad strangler]

BIg TIme major strike on the 18zGFS E TX / W LA