2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2661 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:01 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I feel like the true season for Cabo Verde type longtrackers likely hasn't arrived yet. The MDR is most favorable for longtrackers in MJO Phases 2/3 when the upward motion is centered over the Indian Ocean and shear is at its lowest.

Even though the storms have struggled in the MDR so far, I'm not confident that will continue to be the case, as most of the strongest CV-type longtrackers have been in September rather than August. The ECMWF and EPS are now starting to pick up some MDR development in early September.


Gonna be interesting to see if that results in more recurves, since climatologically the ridge weakens in September. But we're just starting to get into Phase 1/2
0 likes   

Evan_Wilson
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue May 26, 2020 1:09 pm

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2662 Postby Evan_Wilson » Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:07 pm

For sure! Any predictions on the steering patterns for the next few weeks? It’s looking like quite a few systems could be OTS.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2663 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:08 pm

Evan_Wilson wrote:For sure! Any predictions on the steering patterns for the next few weeks? It’s looking like quite a few systems could be OTS.


We shall see. Euro has Laura recurving well E of FL at one point.
5 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2664 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:33 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: A west-based season would also explain why most storms originating from AEW’s have struggled until they’re out of the MDR and north of 20°N. Could this have something to do with some of these waves being monsoon-like allowing them to take longer to get their act together? Of course being that this is looking more like a west-based season means more landfalls and land impacts.


There certainly is a connection between the lack of Eastern and Central Atlantic developing tropical cyclones and the heavily weighted concentration of T.S. developing and tracking west of 60W, but the very fact that this is occurring does not explain "why" most storms originating from AEW's have struggled. This west based season is more a "result of" rather then an explanation of. There are obviously particular dynamics which have/are contributing to very favorable conditions for initial cyclogenesis and pretty much causing any mass of convection (perhaps as small as most vehicles from any old Cheech & Chong movie :ggreen: - if you laugh, then you're old lol). In spite these very favorable conditions however, lies one or two other variables that are not only restricting Eastern and Central Atlantic development, but are clearly hampering most T.D.s and T.S.'s from continuing to develop deeper and stronger core structures. It's interesting to note that the primary exception to this also happens to be the westernmost tropical cyclone to develop thus far (Hannah) in the Atlantic basin thus far. We largely anticipated a very active and moist Easterly trade regime that would result in robust tropical waves to enter the far Eastern Atlantic, and this has clearly verified. Surface and mid level heights might have restricted the easternmost ITCZ on occasion but that is seasonal and hardly explains why Central Atlantic MDR development would be hampered that much. Therefore it seems reasonable enough to assume that the increased strength of these easterly trades have been equally responsible for introducing an extent of SAL that has up to now broadly impacted relative humidity throughout the 400mb-850mb layer. I think this has been enough of an impediment to disrupt and choke off the otherwise rich rising column of convergent moisture from the surface. We all know how much more difficult it is for fast moving tropical waves or T.D. to develop a vertical LLC and MLC structure. Now add the additional complexity of suddenly introducing a "Teflon-like" variable that is working against and interrupting any continuous convective cohesion to maintain a CDO or convective banding within the forming cyclone's structure. The area's that appear least affected by this "salty" air would clearly seem to be those areas well to the south (i.e. south of 10N latitude), and perhaps the western-most reaches of the Tropical Atlantic such as the W. Gulf. When and how long will these hampering conditions continue is a fair question but I can only guess that like most seasons, it is an ongoing process and even now is slowly continuing to work it's way out. I think it's reasonable to assume that as time moves forward these mid atmospheric dry conditions will become at least somewhat less of a factor. I'd guess that September will bring improved enough conditions to be more conducive to Central Atlantic MDR development. I still have to think though, that those western regions of the basin (roughly west of 70W but especially the W. Caribbean & GOM) will be the quickest to recover and pose the greatest risk of Major Hurricane occurrences by middle September. I think that going forward the combination of all present (and improving) mid-level conditions along with a primarily strong West Atlantic mid level ridging pattern and mostly shallow retro-graded Great lakes long-wave pattern..... suggest to me that Central America, W. Cuba, and GOM from the North Texas coastline to Florida stand the greatest risk for 2-4 Major Hurricanes yet to occur.
Last edited by chaser1 on Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
7 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2665 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:39 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:So far the MDR has been more active through this date than it was in 2017. Before Irma, the MDR had TS Bret in June (45 kt), TD Four in July (25 kt), TS Don in July (45 kt) and TS Harvey in August (40 kt). All struggled in the MDR and were unable to develop significantly while there. However, after that, there was Irma (155 kt), Jose (135 kt), and Maria (145 kt) in the MDR. The EPS is already starting to pick up on more activity as I noted, but the GFS isn't, and that should not be a surprise considering the model has been awful with predicting MDR genesis more than a few days out this season.

Basically, my main point is, it's too early to assume the MDR will be unfavorable as a few have said when the peak MJO phase and climatology for MDR storms has not yet arrived. I think we get at least one major hurricane east of 50W and south of 20N before the end of September.


Do you mean WEST of 50W and SOUTH of 20N? I think that's what ya meant.

No, I meant EAST of 50W.


That's understandable, suggesting that you believe that conditions over the East/Central Atlantic will continue to improve and be more conducive for deeper Tropical cyclones to develop while still east of 50.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9620
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2666 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:21 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: A west-based season would also explain why most storms originating from AEW’s have struggled until they’re out of the MDR and north of 20°N. Could this have something to do with some of these waves being monsoon-like allowing them to take longer to get their act together? Of course being that this is looking more like a west-based season means more landfalls and land impacts.


I don't know if that's why or if it's been just general favorability north and west so far due to maybe a few different localized and larger scale issues - water temperatures, big *** high pressure in the Atlantic, SAL for a while early in the season. We even saw a couple of systems improve structure post-landfall. So that's where we've been. Obviously last week of August and first 2-3 weeks of September, our eyes focus on the MDR. Maybe conditions will be sufficiently improved to allow a long tracker or two. IDK. But if we stay on the percentage we are so far, like you said, there are going to be more landfalls, and the storms could be considerably stronger. 2020 is a chaos fueled hurricane season.
1 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2667 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:29 pm

Steve wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: A west-based season would also explain why most storms originating from AEW’s have struggled until they’re out of the MDR and north of 20°N. Could this have something to do with some of these waves being monsoon-like allowing them to take longer to get their act together? Of course being that this is looking more like a west-based season means more landfalls and land impacts.


I don't know if that's why or if it's been just general favorability north and west so far due to maybe a few different localized and larger scale issues - water temperatures, big *** high pressure in the Atlantic, SAL for a while early in the season. We even saw a couple of systems improve structure post-landfall. So that's where we've been. Obviously last week of August and first few 2-3 weeks of September, our eyes focus on the MDR. Maybe conditions will be sufficiently improved to allow a long tracker or two. IDK. But if we stay on the percentage we are so far, like you said, there are going to be more landfalls, and the storms could be considerably stronger. 2020 is a chaos fueled hurricane season.

Well being that 2020 seems to do the opposite of what everyone expects, who knows! :lol:

Since August 1st that small pool of cooler than average SST's just above 20ºN has completely diminished and for awhile I've been questioning if that could steal fuel from the MDR. Yes the Gulf, Caribbean, and off the U.S. East Coast and around Bermuda is warmer than average but so is the Tropical Atlantic.

Also, do you know anything about that warm pool that's developed off of Southern California?

Image

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2668 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:52 pm

YIKES at that SST map from yesterday 8/21 :eek:
2 likes   

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2669 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Aug 22, 2020 10:59 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1296779979670290432
Does anyone know why this may be the case? Why would see more AWB-type events when most other parameters are conducive?

Bump for response...

Does anyone know why VWS has actually increased despite favourable MJO? For example:
 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1296790153856536579


0 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2670 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:38 am

Although pushed back a bit, as the models tend to move things in too quickly, CFS still showing a pretty significant outbreak of hurricanes in the MDR between Sep 8 and 16 with potentially 5-6 consecutive storms developing, and after that ending the "Atlantic" season and focusing quite a bit of activity in the western Caribbean and Gulf, which seems like the hot spot this year. Pretty consistent with the above as well, seemingly continuing the decade long trend of the MDR being unfavorable more often than not regardless of the rest of the basin's activity.
6 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2671 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:40 am

Hammy wrote:Although pushed back a bit, as the models tend to move things in too quickly, CFS still showing a pretty significant outbreak of hurricanes in the MDR between Sep 8 and 16 with potentially 5-6 consecutive storms developing, and after that ending the "Atlantic" season and focusing quite a bit of activity in the western Caribbean and Gulf, which seems like the hot spot this year.

this season is quickly becoming a more "tame" version of 2005 with some 2017 thrown in.

let's hope that the struggling TD 13 doesn't become infamous.
2 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2672 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:06 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Although pushed back a bit, as the models tend to move things in too quickly, CFS still showing a pretty significant outbreak of hurricanes in the MDR between Sep 8 and 16 with potentially 5-6 consecutive storms developing, and after that ending the "Atlantic" season and focusing quite a bit of activity in the western Caribbean and Gulf, which seems like the hot spot this year.

this season is quickly becoming a more "tame" version of 2005 with some 2017 thrown in.

let's hope that the struggling TD 13 doesn't become infamous.


It really is setting up to be a dangerous pattern. And while it obviously cant be used for individual storms or exact timing, the trend certainly bears watching as it similarly was accurate in predicting August would be quieter overall than July outside of the Gulf--and I can't help but notice it's shown over the last several runs yet another situation with two storms at once in the Gulf occurring down the road--something I do remember it showing some weeks and months ago that I ignored figuring it was feedback issues.
3 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2673 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:32 pm

Image
12 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1092
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2674 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:18 pm

Hammy wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Although pushed back a bit, as the models tend to move things in too quickly, CFS still showing a pretty significant outbreak of hurricanes in the MDR between Sep 8 and 16 with potentially 5-6 consecutive storms developing, and after that ending the "Atlantic" season and focusing quite a bit of activity in the western Caribbean and Gulf, which seems like the hot spot this year.

this season is quickly becoming a more "tame" version of 2005 with some 2017 thrown in.

let's hope that the struggling TD 13 doesn't become infamous.


It really is setting up to be a dangerous pattern. And while it obviously cant be used for individual storms or exact timing, the trend certainly bears watching as it similarly was accurate in predicting August would be quieter overall than July outside of the Gulf--and I can't help but notice it's shown over the last several runs yet another situation with two storms at once in the Gulf occurring down the road--something I do remember it showing some weeks and months ago that I ignored figuring it was feedback issues.


Please no. I am afraid Laura is going to be a terrible storm. The Gulf Coast needs a break!
2 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2675 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:54 pm

That upwelled cold pocket south of Baja on the SST map is truly remarkable; I'm absolutely amazed Elida was able to upwell enough to hamper Genevieve given how brief it was. Combined, that's a truly significant temporary drop in SSTs. Must be a really shallow warm layer there.
1 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

storminabox
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 263
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:50 pm

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2676 Postby storminabox » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:10 pm

Yeah it’s a bit weird that the tropical Atlantic hasn’t come to life more than it has. Honestly though the setup of storms forming more to the west is much more dangerous as Marco and Laura are proving. Still weird to see the models so bearish on MDR development considering the warm waters and the supposedly favorable conditions that the area was supposed to be dealing with.
1 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2677 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:21 pm

storminabox wrote:Yeah it’s a bit weird that the tropical Atlantic hasn’t come to life more than it has. Honestly though the setup of storms forming more to the west is much more dangerous as Marco and Laura are proving. Still weird to see the models so bearish on MDR development considering the warm waters and the supposedly favorable conditions that the area was supposed to be dealing with.


How is weird to see models bearish on development when that's all they have done this year and have been proven wrong time and time again?
5 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2678 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:29 pm

storminabox wrote:Yeah it’s a bit weird that the tropical Atlantic hasn’t come to life more than it has. Honestly though the setup of storms forming more to the west is much more dangerous as Marco and Laura are proving. Still weird to see the models so bearish on MDR development considering the warm waters and the supposedly favorable conditions that the area was supposed to be dealing with.


MJO just moving into Phases 2 and 3. Little patience
6 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2679 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:28 pm

We're getting there.

Image
4 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/



Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ElectricStorm, StormWeather, TomballEd and 45 guests