ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2981 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Ok the center is undeniable now. that is right next to the radar. a good bit west of the 11am advisory and likely to miss all the terrain. and stay plenty offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/C01q5kn/Capture.png


Is that a new center? Or does it just appear that way due to Mountain friction? I think I still see a circulation north of the range.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2982 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:11 pm

Highteeld wrote:For storms like Laura, a wider cone is necessary than what the NHC has by landfall


I've seen them do that but maybe it's when it gets closer to shore and I think some loops or hooks were involved.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2983 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:12 pm

Regardless of what the models show all it takes is for Laura to move more north, like Marco, for 3-6 hours tomorrow or Tuesday and that would cause the landfall to shift East by 50-80miles. Not much but it’s something to be watchful of.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2984 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:13 pm

Highteeld wrote:For storms like Laura, a wider cone is necessary than what the NHC has by landfall

Cone size is determined by prior accuracy and T-hours right and not track uncertainty?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2985 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:13 pm

The NAM high-res has started its train of sub-900 runs. Good for anyone doing WMHB runs of it but clearly we know that won’t happen :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2986 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:16 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:I think we might be one advisory from having an “M” on the map


I'd have placed it on the map personally at landfall, but that's just me.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2987 Postby rigbyrigz » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:16 pm

I'm quite taken by how broad Laura is becoming; wondering if it's going to even generate some pretty rough coastal conditions for West and NW FL as it explodes out as it moves up the GOM, more so with this newish easterly possibility. The reports of current effects in Palm Coast and Melbourne are more than a bit interesting.

I actually posted about the current effects in Big Bend, where it might get some of Laura's NE wallop, going on right now due to You-Know-Who. (That big blob over us was evident in the image posted.) Seems my observation should have been in the OtherStorm's thread, as it was deleted without comment by a Mod. Sorry for that, and Good luck to all in the crosshairs of both.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2988 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:17 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:The NAM high-res has started its train of sub-900 runs. Good for anyone doing WMHB runs of it but clearly we know that won’t happen :lol: :lol:


LMAO. 890 at Grand Isle.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2989 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:18 pm

Impressive amount of convection tonight now that Haiti isn't limiting moisture it its inflow
Last edited by Highteeld on Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2990 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:19 pm

Based on the latest data and trends, I'm currently thinking Laura will make landfall somewhere near the TX/LA border as a major hurricane Wednesday night.

However anywhere between Corpus Christi, TX and New Orleans, LA should continue to monitor this storm closely. I'm still not feeling too safe here in Houston...hopefully we will have more confidence on the final expected landfall spot by tomorrow night.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2991 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Ok the center is undeniable now. that is right next to the radar. a good bit west of the 11am advisory and likely to miss all the terrain. and stay plenty offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/C01q5kn/Capture.png

That’s even well south of the last HWRF and HMON runs
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2992 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:21 pm

12km goes into the Triangle as a higher end 2. I can believe the track, but just as the 3km is too high, that's probably too low.

ICON a little deeper and same general area. It hasn't landfalled yet at 69 hours, but it's faster than the NAM 12km.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2993 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:23 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:The NAM high-res has started its train of sub-900 runs. Good for anyone doing WMHB runs of it but clearly we know that won’t happen :lol: :lol:


Let us all hope you're correct. Conditions are expected to become extremely favorable once Laura enters the GOM. :eek:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2994 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:23 pm

Highteeld wrote:For storms like Laura, a wider cone is necessary than what the NHC has by landfall


Cones are based on historical Margin of error. This one certainly won’t be shrinking future comes.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2995 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:24 pm

Anybody know why the GFS para stopped running on Levi’s site?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2996 Postby JayTX » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:24 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Blow_Hard wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.



That, plus it is depicting some interaction with the left over circulation from Marco. I have as much respect for the Euro as anyone but you cannot discount the fact that it was horrible at the outset of the evolution of Laura. I really hate to see anyone get clobbered by a major but my gut instinct is to throw my lot in with the Track of the GFS and the intensity of the HWRF. You just don't see atmospheric perfection in the GOM that often and IMHO Laura is going to take full advantage of the ripe conditions. I just know that if I lived in SE Tex or SW LA I would be doing my dead level best to everything rushed to completion and have my plans in place by the end of the day tomorrow.

Yeah we finished preps today and heading out tomorrow night. I have a feeling Jefferson County will order an evacuation tomorrow. I want to get out ahead of the traffic and remnants of Marco as much as possible.


We are in the Beaumont area and are getting out tomorrow morning. Finished prep todsy. Local Mets are still saying its going mid La. Not sure I'm buying that and only as a CAT 2.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2997 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:26 pm

Nederlander wrote:Anybody know why the GFS para stopped running on Levi’s site?


It could be because of how many people are trying to view the site. I watched a Youtube video last night by a well-known regional met (Joe Cofi) and he said the site was very slow.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2998 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:27 pm

Nederlander wrote:Anybody know why the GFS para stopped running on Levi’s site?


it did on weathermodels.com too
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2999 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:27 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Highteeld wrote:For storms like Laura, a wider cone is necessary than what the NHC has by landfall


Cones are based on historical Margin of error. This one certainly won’t be shrinking future comes.

Yeah I know they are. I think the NHC has made them too small in recent years. I can remember quite a few storms being outside the cone recently (like Dorian, Marco, and Laura) that would suggest there is more uncertainty in tracking TC's than currently thought.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3000 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:29 pm

Highteeld wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Highteeld wrote:For storms like Laura, a wider cone is necessary than what the NHC has by landfall


Cones are based on historical Margin of error. This one certainly won’t be shrinking future comes.

Yeah I know they are. I think the NHC has made them too small in recent years. I can remember quite a few storms being outside the cone recently (like Dorian, Marco, and Laura) that would suggest there is more uncertainty in tracking TC's than currently thought.

Well, model guidance has also been trash in recent history.
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