ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Cones are based on historical Margin of error. This one certainly won’t be shrinking future comes.

Yeah I know they are. I think the NHC has made them too small in recent years. I can remember quite a few storms being outside the cone recently (like Dorian, Marco, and Laura) that would suggest there is more uncertainty in tracking TC's than currently thought.

Well, model guidance has also been trash in recent history.

Right, so increase the cone size

[eastcoastFL]

Close up view on the slider and you can see the center is over water like Aric pointed out. She may emerge from Cuba as a low end hurricane into the gulf

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 488&y=6814

[eastcoastFL]

Yeah I know they are. I think the NHC has made them too small in recent years. I can remember quite a few storms being outside the cone recently (like Dorian, Marco, and Laura) that would suggest there is more uncertainty in tracking TC's than currently thought.

Well, model guidance has also been trash in recent history.

Right, so increase the cone size

It might have to after this season.

[ahoelsken]

Based on the latest data and trends, I'm currently thinking Laura will make landfall somewhere near the TX/LA border as a major hurricane Wednesday night.

However anywhere between Corpus Christi, TX and New Orleans, LA should continue to monitor this storm closely. I'm still not feeling too safe here in Houston...hopefully we will have more confidence on the final expected landfall spot by tomorrow night.

I don't see how Laura as at least a weak Cat 3 doesn't happen-especially with it getting slightly stronger tonight despite the circulation interacting with mountains in Western Haiti and SE Cuba for most of the day.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey Aric, can you post a link to that Cuba radar you’ve been using?

[eastcoastFL]

For storms like Laura, a wider cone is necessary than what the NHC has by landfall

Cones are based on historical Margin of error. This one certainly won’t be shrinking future comes.

Yeah I know they are. I think the NHC has made them too small in recent years. I can remember quite a few storms being outside the cone recently (like Dorian, Marco, and Laura) that would suggest there is more uncertainty in tracking TC's than currently thought.

Ya you’re right. Models have just been awful this and last season. You’d think they’d get better over time but they’ve hit a wall.

[Hurricane Mike]

I expect a potential significant surge in the right-side of the hurricane. Everyone along the coast should be ready.

[eastcoastFL]

Hey Aric, can you post a link to that Cuba radar you’ve been using?

Here it is

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Nederlander]

Hey Aric, can you post a link to that Cuba radar you’ve been using?

Think it’s this one: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Texashawk]

FWIW, the pros on the Houston weather forum seem to be rather gobsmacked at the right shift to the cone. They worry that people in SE Texas won’t know what to think. I can say that the CBS local news in Houston is very, very skeptical of the shift and is adamant in asking people not to let their guard down.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX/status/1297739669539565578

[catskillfire51]

FWIW, the pros on the Houston weather forum seem to be rather gobsmacked at the right shift to the cone. They worry that people in SE Texas won’t know what to think. I can say that the CBS local news in Houston is very, very skeptical of the shift and is adamant in asking people not to let their guard down.

sorry off topic but curious what this forum is? do you have a link?

[cheezyWXguy]

Thanks guys.

[Texashawk]

FWIW, the pros on the Houston weather forum seem to be rather gobsmacked at the right shift to the cone. They worry that people in SE Texas won’t know what to think. I can say that the CBS local news in Houston is very, very skeptical of the shift and is adamant in asking people not to let their guard down.

sorry off topic but curious what this forum is? do you have a link?

Sure! www.wxinfinity.com - it used to be the KHOU weather forum.

[Hurrilurker]

I'm not going to be surprised to see Laura pop up to hurricane status some time during the day tomorrow to be honest, a little ahead of the NHC schedule. Once she clears the SE Cuba peninsula there's quite a bit of open water to work with before she interacts with the NE tip.

[Jonny]

 http://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1297733431967846400

[Nederlander]

FWIW, the pros on the Houston weather forum seem to be rather gobsmacked at the right shift to the cone. They worry that people in SE Texas won’t know what to think. I can say that the CBS local news in Houston is very, very skeptical of the shift and is adamant in asking people not to let their guard down.

It’s always tricky for Houston with evacs. Now you throw this guidance spread in the equation with less than 72 hours to go and it’s a nightmare. My hunch for Texas is Jefferson, Orange, and Chambers counties will call for at least a voluntary evacuation tomorrow and perhaps Bolivar, and coastal communities around Galveston Bay. If it does take a more western track, storm surge will trap folks on Bolivar if they don’t get out by Tuesday afternoon. If models continue trending eastward, then maybe nothing is called for.

[Beef Stew]

Should the center of circulation actually be to the SW, as the radar feed is suggesting it may just be, I would think hurricane watches/warnings may be in store for NW Cuba and Isla de la Juventud in the coming hours.

[Hurricane Mike]

Midnight Video Update on Laura (and Marco)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVBHjaFqqjI

[Highteeld]

Appears to be moving dead west at the moment.