ATL: LAURA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

With the center being poorly assessed, I'd throw out the 00Z models as they haven't resolved the current situation.

garbage in, garbage out. hard to believe hour 60 when hour 3 is inaccurate.

[SoupBone]

HMON a pretty good clip back east to between Lake Charles and Lafayette.

[Highteeld]

With the center being poorly assessed, I'd throw out the 00Z models as they haven't resolved the current situation.

garbage in, garbage out. hard to believe hour 60 when hour 3 is inaccurate.

this. it's a poorly calculated initial value differential equation

[CrazyC83]

With the center being poorly assessed, I'd throw out the 00Z models as they haven't resolved the current situation.

I was thinking that too, you think by tomorrow we should get something more concrete? I'm planning for the worst anyway but just frustrating. Surprisingly 3 years ago today we were doing the same thing with Harvey in my area, at least then we had a clue

Hopefully the 12Z models give us a clue. After all, a Hurricane Watch will be needed for the coast by tomorrow night at this rate.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF hour 57:

[bella_may]

Is the ridge weakening?

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF RI hours 69-75:

[CrazyC83]

With the center being poorly assessed, I'd throw out the 00Z models as they haven't resolved the current situation.

garbage in, garbage out. hard to believe hour 60 when hour 3 is inaccurate.

this. it's a poorly calculated initial value differential equation

This is why meteorologists have to take many Calculus courses (usually at least 3) as well as Differential Equations. It only gets a sense of what computers have to input - not even close to the whole thing. And sometimes, they enter the completely wrong data.

[Craters]

I think it might be a good idea to remind everybody of what the NHC has access to that we mere mortals never get to see. Take a look at this list

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Each listing with an * in front of it is unavailable to us; Table 2 is particularly noteworthy. They have a lot more, model-wise, to cogitate than we do (obviously).

That having been said, I'd consider drinking a toast of kerosene to the NHC if it would let me get a peek at the shadow ensembles for Laura right now...

[CrazyC83]

I think it might be a good idea to remind everybody of what the NHC has access to that we mere mortals never get to see. Take a look at this list

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Each listing with an * in front of it is unavailable to us; Table 2 is particularly noteworthy. They have a lot more, model-wise, to cogitate than we do (obviously).

That having been said, I'd consider drinking a toast of kerosene to the NHC if it would let me get a peek at the shadow ensembles for Laura right now...

If any ensembles adjusted for initial position southward, those could be valuable.

[Highteeld]

I think it might be a good idea to remind everybody of what the NHC has access to that we mere mortals never get to see. Take a look at this list

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Each listing with an * in front of it is unavailable to us; Table 2 is particularly noteworthy. They have a lot more, model-wise, to cogitate than we do (obviously).

That having been said, I'd consider drinking a toast of kerosene to the NHC if it would let me get a peek at the shadow ensembles for Laura right now...

If any ensembles adjusted for initial position southward, those could be valuable.

Yep. Going to have to pick through and choose individual members to get a sense for what happens with Laura.

[Kingarabian]

Think about it. Even though the models are coming in with an initially weaker Laura after Cuba (and keep it weak for a good 24 hours), they still make it a major hurricane upon landfall.

[Highteeld]

Think about it. Even though the models are coming in with an initially weaker Laura after Cuba, they still make it a major hurricane upon landfall.

Puts 900 mb on the table

[Kingarabian]

Think about it. Even though the models are coming in with an initially weaker Laura after Cuba, they still make it a major hurricane upon landfall.

Puts 900 mb on the table

Yup. Hate to say it, but the best case scenario is actually a Cat.3 landfall... Just shows how bad the situation is.

[CrazyC83]

Think about it. Even though the models are coming in with an initially weaker Laura after Cuba, they still make it a major hurricane upon landfall.

Puts 900 mb on the table

Not necessarily. If Laura is stronger sooner, then an ERC could come into play before landfall and it may only grow spatially. Laura still needs to develop an inner core to intensify significantly in the short term (i.e. south of Cuba), but over water that is feasible.

[Kingarabian]

Think about it. Even though the models are coming in with an initially weaker Laura after Cuba, they still make it a major hurricane upon landfall.

Puts 900 mb on the table

Not necessarily. If Laura is stronger sooner, then an ERC could come into play before landfall and it may only grow spatially. Laura still needs to develop an inner core, but over water that is feasible.

But then an ERC brings back Ike/Katrina vibes (larger size) which arguably felt much stronger than a Cat.2/Cat.3 respectively. Though I'm not 100% sure Katrina's large was from a ERC.

[Highteeld]

Puts 900 mb on the table

Not necessarily. If Laura is stronger sooner, then an ERC could come into play before landfall and it may only grow spatially. Laura still needs to develop an inner core, but over water that is feasible.

But then an ERC brings back Ike/Katrina vibes which arguably felt much stronger than a Cat.2/Cat.3 respectively.

Katrina was near 900 mb post erc, too XD

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 00-24:

[bella_may]

According to ASCAT and new center has formed back East between Cuba and Jamaica. Might have to throw out the models until morning

[SouthernBreeze]

According to ASCAT and new center has formed back East between Cuba and Jamaica. Might have to throw out the models until morning

NHC not buying it yet