ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

An alternate possibility is that two centers are fighting for one right now - the NHC position at 20.5 and the ASCAT position which would be around 19.6.

[sponger]

So nhc adjust track back west ?

Seems likely but not by much until models get a better initialization. I will predict Western LA first and then into Texas later in the day. Stewart is up at 5 and will sort this mess out for us.

[sponger]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

An alternate possibility is that two centers are fighting for one right now - the NHC position at 20.5 and the ASCAT position which would be around 19.6.

It will be interesting to see the 5 am position. I am thinking they stuck with the old one until they get more verification. Its 2 am so who is up but us weather geeks!

[txag2005]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

If i lived in an evacuation zone anywhere from at least Freeport to central or east Louisiana, I'd probably go ahead and leave today before evacuations are called. That's especially true in the greater Houston area. I can't imagine the chaos if they call for wide evacuations Tuesday morning with possible rain from Marco and Laura starting to affect the area possibly as early as Wednesday.

[CrazyC83]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

If i lived in an evacuation zone anywhere from at least Freeport to central or east Louisiana, I'd probably go ahead and leave today before evacuations are called. That's especially true in the greater Houston area. I can't imagine the chaos if they call for wide evacuations Tuesday morning with possible rain from Marco and Laura starting to affect the area possibly as early as Wednesday.

He's a pro met so we have to give him the benefit of the doubt even if we disagree.

[Uptownmeow]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

If i lived in an evacuation zone anywhere from at least Freeport to central or east Louisiana, I'd probably go ahead and leave today before evacuations are called. That's especially true in the greater Houston area. I can't imagine the chaos if they call for wide evacuations Tuesday morning with possible rain from Marco and Laura starting to affect the area possibly as early as Wednesday.

That’s easy sounding in theory for sure. But times are real tough for lots of folks right now. Out of work, out of money, and evacuating is expensive especially if you have kids or pets and such.

[txag2005]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

If i lived in an evacuation zone anywhere from at least Freeport to central or east Louisiana, I'd probably go ahead and leave today before evacuations are called. That's especially true in the greater Houston area. I can't imagine the chaos if they call for wide evacuations Tuesday morning with possible rain from Marco and Laura starting to affect the area possibly as early as Wednesday.

He's a pro met so we have to give him the benefit of the doubt even if we disagree.

Oh I wasn’t disagreeing with him. I don’t know enough to even have an opinion. I’m just speaking to the fact that with so much uncertainty so close to landfall for a storm that has the potential to be a major means I’d take it upon myself to go ahead and evacuate to be safe if I lived in an evacuation zone.

[txag2005]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

If i lived in an evacuation zone anywhere from at least Freeport to central or east Louisiana, I'd probably go ahead and leave today before evacuations are called. That's especially true in the greater Houston area. I can't imagine the chaos if they call for wide evacuations Tuesday morning with possible rain from Marco and Laura starting to affect the area possibly as early as Wednesday.

That’s easy sounding in theory for sure. But times are real tough for lots of folks right now. Out of work, out of money, and evacuating is expensive especially if you have kids or pets and such.

I get that. If not evacuating at least planning to get myself and my family to a shelter or something. I’m just really concerned that lots of people are going to be stuck in a bad situation.

[Hammy]

Laura may have ended up taking the most unfavorable route from an organization standpoint, skirting along the highest mountains. This is the same part of Cuba that ended Ernesto's run at intensification in 2006 as well and led it to decouple from the upper anticyclone. Not to say it won't strengthen from here but certainly a higher chance than before that it doesn't quite as much.

[sponger]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

If i lived in an evacuation zone anywhere from at least Freeport to central or east Louisiana, I'd probably go ahead and leave today before evacuations are called. That's especially true in the greater Houston area. I can't imagine the chaos if they call for wide evacuations Tuesday morning with possible rain from Marco and Laura starting to affect the area possibly as early as Wednesday.

This looks more and more like a Houston event IMO. May it go East of you because I do not want to think about the impact of a large well defined major into Houston. I think our girl just bought an additional 12 hours over water and that does not bode well for the Texas coast.

[xironman]

I'd go with the southern one, at least the MLC is there

[txag2005]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

If i lived in an evacuation zone anywhere from at least Freeport to central or east Louisiana, I'd probably go ahead and leave today before evacuations are called. That's especially true in the greater Houston area. I can't imagine the chaos if they call for wide evacuations Tuesday morning with possible rain from Marco and Laura starting to affect the area possibly as early as Wednesday.

This looks more and more like a Houston event IMO. May it go East of you because I do not want to think about the impact of a large well defined major into Houston. I think our girl just bought an additional 12 hours over water and that does not bode well for the Texas coast.

I’m fearing the same and that’s why I’m so concerned. I feel like most people here aren’t very worried given how Houston has bounced in and out of the cone (it doesn’t help that people don’t really understand how the cone works). Plus, when I tell people a major is a really possibility most people don’t believe me.

I worry a Rita like panic will ensue if Houston ends up as the likely target, especially if a major hurricane is projected.

[Hammy]

http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar Cayman radar, might want to bookmark it as it'll come in handy tomorrow

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with the southern one, at least the MLC is there

https://i.imgur.com/SQE5aoa.gif

Radar center looks to be 19.6N 78.4W. That's like only a few thousand feet above the surface toothat it is looking at.

[Visioen]

Once it moves more west and clears the mountains, the 'old center' will get better inflow again. If at that time it still exists of course.

[Hammy]

Low cloud motion over the last few hours, at least what I could tell in areas there mid-level clouds weren't obscuring or mixing too much. Seems elongated to the WNW.

[sponger]

What a mess!

[MBryant]

While conditions exist for Rapid Intensification, that is one ugly storm to be taking advantage of those conditions. I'm feeling better about staying, but I will be keeping an eye on things.

[USTropics]

Recon is getting prepped for Laura, and a breakdown of some of the instruments on Miss Piggy:

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1297802186009829376




 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1297802446799081477




 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1297802494291173376

[Chemmers]

New towers firing near the coc now