ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3081 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:37 am

It looks like someone set up a wall to her North.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3082 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:45 am

sponger wrote:It looks like someone set up a wall to her North.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir


Looks like the mountains in eastern Cuba are blocking that massive convective band from wrapping all the way around.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3083 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:47 am

sponger wrote:It looks like someone set up a wall to her North.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir


There's a wall alright:

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3084 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:58 am

"TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 78.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM"

Earlier ASCAT-B/-C
scatterometer passes around 0210Z-0250Z revealed a small
circulation just offshore southeastern Cuba. However, this feature
is considered to be a leeside vortex, possibly having developed in
response to the long-fetch southerly low-level flow passing over
Jamaica, and not the primary low-level center associated with Laura.

NHC sticking to the Northern center. Convection beginning to fire right there.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3085 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:05 am

Not only is land a wall for Laura but a developing PV Streamer as well.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3086 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:10 am

GCANE wrote:Not only is land a wall for Laura but a developing PV Streamer as well.

https://i.imgur.com/Jz3kBI8.gif


Gives some hope that Laura will take a bit more time to recover once she is in the open. Hopefully Cat four or five is off the table.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3087 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:18 am

From the discussion:

Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near
31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36
hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more
toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity
forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global
model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the
intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours.


Still not discounting the possibility of a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3088 Postby Jr0d » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:22 am

Does not even look like a tropical cyclone right now. The shortwave IR satellite shows a LLC racing West along the south coast...it looks that 'center' will keep racing pass the convection and be an open swirl soon.

It looks the Laura is on the verge of becoming an open wave.

It looks like the terrain of Cuba has completely cut off all the northern convection. There is also dry air driving down from the northeast...something that will limit it also. Funny how 12 hours ago, the board consensus was saying the mountains would not do much because of what happened over Hispaniola.

It will take a lot Laura to recover at this rate.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3089 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:25 am

sponger wrote:
GCANE wrote:Not only is land a wall for Laura but a developing PV Streamer as well.

https://i.imgur.com/Jz3kBI8.gif


Gives some hope that Laura will take a bit more time to recover once she is in the open. Hopefully Cat four or five is off the table.


Actually I was just checking the UL conditions forecasted when Laura is in the GoM.
No doubt she will be under a huge UL High when in the middle of the GoM with a Rossby Wave far to the west.
The Rossby Wave closes in as Laura approaches the coast.
A large trof / PV Streamer then comes down from the Rossby Wave and may put a dent in Laura just before landfall.
Timing of the interaction may change, but something to keep an eye on for future forecasts.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3090 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:27 am

I have the center circled in pink (some recent convection just fired up near it). You'll see the mountains on the SE side of the island (blue square) are completely preventing the convection from wrapping around the northern semicircle. It literally hit a wall. There is some slight northerly vertical shear as well that is keeping convection to the south.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3091 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:33 am

Hammy wrote:From the discussion:

Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near
31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36
hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more
toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity
forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global
model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the
intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours.


Still not discounting the possibility of a major hurricane.

idk if i am missing something, but it seems a cat 3 is more likely than not. most models are taking this into the sub 980's and most show some sort of RI before landfall. the nhc is being slightly conservative and still has it at 105.

right as it type this, the gfs is coming in stronger at hour 30.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3092 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:44 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hammy wrote:From the discussion:

Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near
31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36
hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more
toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity
forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global
model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the
intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours.


Still not discounting the possibility of a major hurricane.

idk if i am missing something, but it seems a cat 3 is more likely than not. most models are taking this into the sub 980's and most show some sort of RI before landfall. the nhc is being slightly conservative and still has it at 105.

right as it type this, the gfs is coming in stronger at hour 30.


Stronger is a understatement
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3093 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:47 am

Models latching on to the LLC being over water... 06z GFS took notice.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3094 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:52 am

Keldeo1997 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hammy wrote:From the discussion:



Still not discounting the possibility of a major hurricane.

idk if i am missing something, but it seems a cat 3 is more likely than not. most models are taking this into the sub 980's and most show some sort of RI before landfall. the nhc is being slightly conservative and still has it at 105.

right as it type this, the gfs is coming in stronger at hour 30.


Stronger is a understatement

21mb stronger at landfall than 00z.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3095 Postby 3090 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:54 am

She has a long way to go to look presentable once again. She needs a lot of help.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3096 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:54 am

Laura is definitely being affected by Cuba but even then she still looks better now than she did 2 days ago, and I have a feeling she will bounce back rapidly now that the core is in open water
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3097 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:54 am

3090 wrote:She has a long way to go to look presentable once again. She needs a lot of help.


Warm water will be plenty of help
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3098 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:02 am

When the center gets past about 80W convection should begin to return to the northern semicircle. The central parts of Cuba are not as high in elevation as the SE side. Pico de San Juan will likely restrict inflow some as the center gets towards the NW tip of Cuba.
Last edited by USTropics on Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3099 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:08 am

Houston/Galveston would be really threading the needle on the current NHC track.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3100 Postby Visioen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:12 am

Yeah the wall will start becoming less and less of an issue.
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