ATL: LAURA - Models

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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3001 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:31 am

Image

06Z GFS is MUCH STRONGER at 18 hours

Edit: Image

I hope this is a Outlier
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3002 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:35 am

06z GFS bombing out:
Image
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3003 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:36 am

More west also
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3004 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:37 am

06z GFS hour 48.
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Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3005 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:37 am

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS bombing out:
https://i.imgur.com/ypourmE.png

nearly 30mb stronger than last run. :double: it also got the center int correct at the start.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3006 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:39 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS bombing out:
https://i.imgur.com/ypourmE.png

nearly 30mb stronger than last run. :double: it also got the center int correct at the start.

Sure did.

06z GFS through the first 24 hours:
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3007 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:41 am

06z GFS hour 54 down to 951mb:
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3008 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:45 am

06z GFS hours 48-72:
Image

Got down to about 948mb. Strongest run yet for Laura.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3009 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:47 am

Reminder that the GFS has a low bias in cases of rapid intensification
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3010 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:47 am

Looking like la/tx border
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3011 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:01 am

stormlover2013 wrote:Looking like la/tx border


Not to split hairs, but that's almost due south of Lake Charles. That difference would be Houston getting some minimal wind to Houston having tropical storm conditions.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3012 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:04 am

SoupBone wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Looking like la/tx border


Not to split hairs, but that's almost due south of Lake Charles. That difference would be Houston getting some minimal wind to Houston having tropical storm conditions.



Talking about model consensus, gfs, ukmet, nam,icon, euro
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3013 Postby txag2005 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:08 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Looking like la/tx border


Not to split hairs, but that's almost due south of Lake Charles. That difference would be Houston getting some minimal wind to Houston having tropical storm conditions.


Talking about model consensus, gfs, ukmet, nam,icon, euro



UKMET was far to the west at 0z, between Matagorda and Freeport.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3014 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:11 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Looking like la/tx border


Not to split hairs, but that's almost due south of Lake Charles. That difference would be Houston getting some minimal wind to Houston having tropical storm conditions.



Talking about model consensus, gfs, ukmet, nam,icon, euro


Yeah, unless something crazy changes, there will likely only be some minor swings in model tracking. But I still want to see where she clears Cuba.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3015 Postby plasticup » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:11 am

Keldeo1997 wrote:Reminder that the GFS has a low bias in cases of rapid intensification


Oh goodie
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3016 Postby txag2005 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:18 am

plasticup wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:Reminder that the GFS has a low bias in cases of rapid intensification


Oh goodie


Based on the most recent forecast discussion, if the Euro shows increased intensification as well, then we may see a major forecasted with the 11 am update.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3017 Postby LSU Saint » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:25 am

Seems some of the models are pushing west

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3018 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:48 am

Updated model verification for Tropical Storm Laura (data past 96 hours has limited runs):

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3019 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:54 am

From Brian Tangin's website, here are how the models have missed compared to the actual center's location. Basically this graph is showing most of the models have been too far north and/or east of actual tracked center for Laura in their forecasts:
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3020 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:02 am

06z HWRF about to go nuclear.
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