ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Visioen]

And those very hot waters with crazy OHC to the south and west of it will sustain deep convection like that for days. The storm will be just fine. IMO

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1297841859847364609




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1297842894888468486

[jlauderdal]

Does not even look like a tropical cyclone right now. The shortwave IR satellite shows a LLC racing West along the south coast...it looks that 'center' will keep racing pass the convection and be an open swirl soon.

It looks the Laura is on the verge of becoming an open wave.

It looks like the terrain of Cuba has completely cut off all the northern convection. There is also dry air driving down from the northeast...something that will limit it also. Funny how 12 hours ago, the board consensus was saying the mountains would not do much because of what happened over Hispaniola.

It will take a lot Laura to recover at this rate.

the structure is there, IR can be really deceiving when things look really good and not so good. Bottom line is the worst is over for this system and it is moving into a very efficient environment. However, intensity forecast is tricky at best..prepare fora 3/4 hope for a 1/2. Preps are basically the same, damage is very different in a major. Looking ahead, models liking an Atlantic system for next week with a very stout ridge in place which would bring it all the way across for labor day weekend and then that should be it for the cape verde systems this year.

[Nimbus]

Models latching on to the LLC being over water... 06z GFS took notice.

By the time Laura threads the channel just north of the Isle of Youth her central pressure will already be starting to fall, then conditions up through the mid gulf are ideal for intensification. The GFS,HWRF, and HMON are still trying out different parameters for intensity but the 00z runs were in agreement about a western LA landfall in about 69 hours. Getting in close enough to landfall that there are less likely to be any ridge surprises, but if Laura is a weaker or stronger system mid gulf then that could effect ridge strengthening?

[SoupBone]

I know wxman is likely very busy right now, but it would be nice if he popped in with his thoughts on track.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I can’t believe some are still saying this will become an open wave. Nome of the globals show that possibility, most show a significant hurricane headed towards Texas or Louisiana.

[SoupBone]

I can’t believe some are still saying this will become an open wave. Nome of the globals show that possibility, most show a significant hurricane headed towards Texas or Louisiana.

They are nowcasting, not future casting.

[NDG]

Recon this morning finds that Laura took a nice hit from the mountains in eastern Cuba.

[SoupBone]

Recon this morning finds that Laura took a nice hit from the mountains in eastern Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/zKYN87o.png

I'm not good on Zulu time, what time is this central time?

[NDG]

Recon this morning finds that Laura took a nice hit from the mountains in eastern Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/zKYN87o.png

I'm not good on Zulu time, what time is this central time?

6 AM

[Aric Dunn]

Marco is still well intact.. I see this turning more nw suddenly later today as it gets caught in the wake of Marco. sheared but intact
then when marco dies ridge will build back some and we see a more wnw track.

this gradual turn stuff is not realistic in this scenario. the weakness behind marco and southerly flow is coming up quickly around central and western cuba and can easily be seen.

[USTropics]

Once Laura clears Cuba, the upper-level pattern is quite favorable. The storm will be positioned on the SW flank of an upper-level high(red), which is ideal for a strengthening system. You have two upper-level troughs (purple) moving in tandem with Laura. In addition, you still have the jet streak (white) located up in the east coast. All of this provides an excellent upper-level pattern for venting (green):

[SoupBone]

Marco is still well intact.. I see this turning more nw suddenly later today as it gets caught in the wake of Marco. sheared but intact
then when marco dies ridge will build back some and we see a more wnw track.

this gradual turn stuff is not realistic in this scenario. the weakness behind marco and southerly flow is coming up quickly around central and western cuba and can easily be seen.

I'm not following, what are you suggesting? A more pronounced radical turn to what direction?

[Aric Dunn]

Marco is still well intact.. I see this turning more nw suddenly later today as it gets caught in the wake of Marco. sheared but intact
then when marco dies ridge will build back some and we see a more wnw track.

this gradual turn stuff is not realistic in this scenario. the weakness behind marco and southerly flow is coming up quickly around central and western cuba and can easily be seen.

I'm not following, what are you suggesting? A more pronounced radical turn to what direction?

If marco was not there. then a gradual turn is fine given the tilt to the ridge. .. but the weakness is there.

so a sharper NW turn before bending back WNW>

[NDG]

Marco is still well intact.. I see this turning more nw suddenly later today as it gets caught in the wake of Marco. sheared but intact
then when marco dies ridge will build back some and we see a more wnw track.

this gradual turn stuff is not realistic in this scenario. the weakness behind marco and southerly flow is coming up quickly around central and western cuba and can easily be seen.

I agree, Marco's mid level vorticty has made it further north & east, thus weakening the western extension of the Bermuda ridge into the eastern GOM.

[SoupBone]

Marco is still well intact.. I see this turning more nw suddenly later today as it gets caught in the wake of Marco. sheared but intact
then when marco dies ridge will build back some and we see a more wnw track.

this gradual turn stuff is not realistic in this scenario. the weakness behind marco and southerly flow is coming up quickly around central and western cuba and can easily be seen.

I'm not following, what are you suggesting? A more pronounced radical turn to what direction?

If marco was not there. then a gradual turn is fine given the tilt to the ridge. .. but the weakness is there.

so a sharper NW turn before bending back WNW>

That would put Central and SELA back in play.

[NDG]

Recon finds no signs of a LLC reforming further south as many were thinking about late last night on Twitter.

[Nederlander]

That would put Central and SELA back in play.

Think he means the trajectory will be more of a stair step approach, rather than a gradual bend.

[hurricaneCW]

I can’t believe some are still saying this will become an open wave. Nome of the globals show that possibility, most show a significant hurricane headed towards Texas or Louisiana.

It's complete nonsense. Models are actually becoming much more confident that she'll be a potent system this morning.

Hard to see Laura not becoming a major in the gulf in a couple days.

[hurricaneCW]

Recon finds no signs of a LLC reforming further south as many were thinking about late last night on Twitter.

https://i.imgur.com/qgRhXGj.png

The LLC was well intact, there was zero indication it was going to reform. People were -removed-.