ATL: LAURA - Models

[SoupBone]

The HMON is definitely concerning.

[SoupBone]

HMON 75 Hours

[HouTXmetro]

HMON 75 Hours

https://i.imgur.com/0K16cm8.png

oh boy, close to worse case scenario for Houston... wasnt the last run of this model on the LA side of the border?

[SoupBone]

HMON 75 Hours

https://i.imgur.com/0K16cm8.png

oh boy, close to worse case scenario for Houston... wasnt the last run of this model on the LA side of the border?

Yes, on the eastern side of Cameron Parish.

[SoupBone]

HMON 81 Hours

[SoupBone]

HWRF 57 Hours

[kevin]

HMON 948/949 mbar landfall at 81 hours. I really hope this doesn't verify, it's pretty much the worst case scenario for Houston.

[shiny-pebble]

Good morning everyone. Everyday I wake up wondering if the models will decide to agree on something. And everyday I am wrong.

Here's the HWRF at hour 57. Might go under 940...

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[SoupBone]

The HWRF is much more in line with the globals now. I can say this, the HMON in a few runs had Laura bouncing all over the place. I don't know if it's just the way the run is visually represented or something with the data.

[supercane4867]

[kevin]

06 HWRF landfall, 931 mbar at 69 hours.

[FixySLN]

Good morning everyone. Everyday I wake up wondering if the models will decide to agree on something. And everyday I am wrong.

Here's the HWRF at hour 57. Might go under 940...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/7491eca090e42eb16a06b3e4e1e9c3ee.jpg

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Was thinking the same thing. But I think we checked one or two things off the list last night. Laura reforming to the south(?). Would lead to a more westerly track. Barring any wild northern track change, it looks like WSW trend might come to fruition(?). Another question I have is that ridge over NE Florida. Marco's dissipation kept the ridge from strengthening it with outflow. Marco LOOKS like he might track a little further north and east than was originally planned, but I'm not savvy enough to understand why. Also unsure how that might effect Laura. After re-reading before posting I've come to the realization there are just as many questions this morning as there were last night...

[HouTXmetro]

HMON would put my mother's home in the NE eyewall.

[SoupBone]

Should HMON be right (and I'm still at least doubting that scenario), this is what Ike looked like (a Cat 2).

[aspen]

06z HWRF does a decent job initializing Laura’s position (not intensity), and has a short-term track just about on top of the NHC’s within the next 24 hours. It also doesn’t try to strengthen Laura much until it enters the Gulf and isn’t blocked by Cuba.

The main problem is that the HWRF initializes Laura as a mid to high 990s system, when it’s probably in the low 1000s.

[supercane4867]

For entertainment purpose only

[plasticup]

The next 72 hours are going to be some of the most interesting of the year. Huge model spread considering the short timeline, both track and intensity.

[aspen]

06z HWRF does a decent job initializing Laura’s position (not intensity), and has a short-term track just about on top of the NHC’s within the next 24 hours. It also doesn’t try to strengthen Laura much until it enters the Gulf and isn’t blocked by Cuba.

The main problem is that the HWRF initializes Laura as a mid to high 990s system, when it’s probably in the low 1000s.

After looking at the latest recon data, I take back what I said about the HWRF not initializing Laura’s intensity right. Turns out, it’s pretty close; it does seem to be a high 990s system, and both recon and the HWRF show maximum winds to the north of the center over Cuba.

[plasticup]

For entertainment purpose only

https://i.imgur.com/sVHqQtW.png

I mean, it is basically the perfect setup for a run at the sub-900 club

[stormlover2013]

Euro is going to be more west no doubt