ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

I don't post things like this often ... but I gotta admit that I'm surprised NHC is standing pat on the Laura track, especially given the model trend this morning and how the storm has emerged off Cuba further south than what many expected.

For you folks in southeast Texas, I really feel for you. This makes for an excruciatingly difficult personal choice. God bless y'all! Be safe.

We have a camper spot on stand by down towards corpus just in case. I feel like this is going to turn into a really big problem with the delays as evacuations will be delayed.

[MarioProtVI]

Seems like Laura is reforming AGAIN even further offshore...when doesn’t she reform her centers

[Aric Dunn]

I don't post things like this often ... but I gotta admit that I'm surprised NHC is standing pat on the Laura track, especially given the model trend this morning and how the storm has emerged off Cuba further south than what many expected.

For you folks in southeast Texas, I really feel for you. This makes for an excruciatingly difficult personal choice. God bless y'all! Be safe.

They are Probably unsure about the models handling of the interaction with Marco. Marco has to completely weaken for it not to have some effect on Laura.

and models are terrible at these types of interactions.

[USTropics]

From this line:

The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

Seems like they are referencing the 00z ECMWF run and will wait to see what the 12z ECMWF run shows to make track changes. The 06z ECMWF run was closer to the UKMET solution than the GFS solution.

This is by no means a forecast for the future, but so far the UKMET at 72 hours is performing almost 50 nautical miles better than the next best model at that time frame:

[jasons2k]

All,

I can tell you that here locally in the Houston area, there is a sense of exasperation among some of the local mets since the NHC held the track at 11. Things do appear to be trending towards Texas and there isn't much time left to prepare. There is a lot of concern that if this storm does threaten the Houston metro area, we are going to lose critical prep time today.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not sold that Laura becomes a major hurricane in the Gulf but as ShellMound has stated it could have major-like impacts regardless of its peak strength similar to Ike.

[GCANE]

Wow, I never seen CAPE this high in the GoM before.
7500.
A powder keg.

[Texashawk]

The mayor of Houston and the county judge (basically like a very powerful mayor of a county) are having a a 'major press conference' at 1 PM. Fortunately, they have tended to be more proactive towards potential disasters, at least in Turner's tenure. Hopefully they'll say what the NHC is not and tell Houstonians to be prepared.

[catskillfire51]

Wow, I never seen CAPE this high in the GoM before.
7500.
A powder keg.


https://i.imgur.com/LJ2Ot8Q.gif

is that current or future?

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not sold that Laura becomes a major hurricane in the Gulf but as ShellMound has stated it could have major-like impacts regardless of its peak strength similar to Ike.

I would be surprised if it didn't. Ike came out of Cuba with a broad and weakened circulation. On the other hand, Laura's overall envelope is pretty broad, but there appears to be a tight little center there under the deepest convection. Would not sleep on that.

[GCANE]

Wow, I never seen CAPE this high in the GoM before.
7500.
A powder keg.


https://i.imgur.com/LJ2Ot8Q.gif

is that current or future?

Current

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not sold that Laura becomes a major hurricane in the Gulf but as ShellMound has stated it could have major-like impacts regardless of its peak strength similar to Ike.

I would be surprised if it didn't. Ike came out of Cuba with a broad and weakened circulation. On the other hand, Laura's overall envelope is pretty broad, but there appears to be a tight little center there under the deepest convection. Would not sleep on that.

Not saying it couldn't but like with Ike it's broad and huge and those systems take longer to tighten up.

[catskillfire51]

Wow, I never seen CAPE this high in the GoM before.
7500.
A powder keg.


https://i.imgur.com/LJ2Ot8Q.gif

is that current or future?

Current

wow

[BobHarlem]

I'm not sold that Laura becomes a major hurricane in the Gulf but as ShellMound has stated it could have major-like impacts regardless of its peak strength similar to Ike.

I would be surprised if it didn't. Ike came out of Cuba with a broad and weakened circulation. On the other hand, Laura's overall envelope is pretty broad, but there appears to be a tight little center there under the deepest convection. Would not sleep on that.

I'm curious how the storm surge will be with Laura. If it gets stronger earlier in the Gulf, I'd assume it would be larger since it takes longer to pool up than to release. (Katrina was weakening at landfall, but the surge momentum was already there and it takes longer to disperse).

[stormlover2013]

Bastardi

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1297910232958590978

[catskillfire51]

I'm not sold that Laura becomes a major hurricane in the Gulf but as ShellMound has stated it could have major-like impacts regardless of its peak strength similar to Ike.

I would be surprised if it didn't. Ike came out of Cuba with a broad and weakened circulation. On the other hand, Laura's overall envelope is pretty broad, but there appears to be a tight little center there under the deepest convection. Would not sleep on that.

I'm curious how the storm surge will be with Laura. If it gets stronger earlier in the Gulf, I'd assume it would be larger since it takes longer to pool up than to release. (Katrina was weakening at landfall, but the surge momentum was already there and it takes longer to disperse).

I use this link to track it, not sure how good it is but it seems to get a good idea.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297916072302120960

[Aric Dunn]

Well this will throw a little wrinkle in the model mix for 18z..

big jump wsw from a reformation.. speeding the timing up a little.

also typically wsw and SW reformations are a precursor to deepening.. often RI.

[cjrciadt]

Wow, I never seen CAPE this high in the GoM before.
7500.
A powder keg.


https://i.imgur.com/LJ2Ot8Q.gif

is that current or future?

It was 6000 max for Michael correct?
Current

[storm_in_a_teacup]

So what scares me the most about Laura is that at least in my part of Houston (central), the buildings aren’t built to withstand strong winds, and don’t have storm shutters etc. I’m not in an evacuation zone, but I wonder whether we should evacuate anyway. My father refuses to let us have a generator because he “doesn’t want to burn down the house” and we have no idea how to put plywood on all our windows. We also have a Bradford pear in the backyard and you know how those always fall in storms.
I know most people say to be more afraid of flooding, but I have been through a lot of floods. I have never been in major hurricane winds and I’m terrified.
EDIT: forgot to add my mother is high risk for Covid-19 so this makes the dilemma harder.