ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dantonlsu]

The 12Z FV3-GEFS Ensembles cluster near Galveston FWIW...

Link

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Organizing nicely.

[jasons2k]

The 12Z FV3-GEFS Ensembles cluster near Galveston FWIW...

Link

Here it is

[Ritzcraker]

Did Marco produce any upwelling that could weaken Laura as it approaches the coastline?

Very very minimal. Marco was not strong enough.

[psyclone]

There's a reason the NHC evaluates and issues a complete new forecast suite every 6 hours. If you feel threatened, no matter what the official forecast says, take steps to protect yourself and your property. Channel nervous energy into constructive activity. Laura was supposed to be punishing me today.. Now we're on the other side of the Gulf. Things change. The 5 pm update will likely include hurricane and storm surge watches. I suspect they will cover a large area either side of Sabine pass. The storm has been aiming for TX/LA for awhile now. It's coming. Get ready. There are important details that just aren't knowable yet. Laura looks to be a decent sized storm headed for a surge prone area. I would not be surprised if surge hazards extend a good deal east of the risk of Gale/storm/hurricane force wind threats. All the best out that way.

[aspen]

Did Marco produce any upwelling that could weaken Laura as it approaches the coastline?

Doesn’t seem like it. Also, there’s a larger pocket of warmer SSTs closer to Texas, so any minor upwelling from Marco is not going to have a lasting impact.

[Nederlander]

Did Marco produce any upwelling that could weaken Laura as it approaches the coastline?

Not really any significant upwelling. Won’t have an effect.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anyone have a radar they'd recommend? Satellite makes it look like Laura is heading straight for Isla de la Juventud.

[Nederlander]

Anyone have a radar they'd recommend? Satellite makes it look like Laura is heading straight for Isla de la Juventud.

This radar site is on that island: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[BobHarlem]

Anyone have a radar they'd recommend? Satellite makes it look like Laura is heading straight for Isla de la Juventud.

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1297935759182303232

[supercane4867]

Recon fixes and satellite trend are showing it's heading almost due west.

[Nederlander]

Recon fixes and satellite trend are showing it's heading almost due west.

Yeah, she may just barely clip the western end.

[Michele B]

This is a freaking nightmare trying to decide what to do. Everyone keeps saying west but then all the official stuff says East

In this case, I’d side with the NHC over some of the local meteorologists. Some networks try to “hype” for ratings instead of being objective and scientific.

I follow the Space City Weather guys in Houston and they seem perplexed by NHC. They aren't part of network and pride themselves on "hype free". They usually are in-line with what NHC is saying, but definitely confused on latest update.

Was Neil Frank part of that group?

I'd follow ANYTHING he told me! He KNEW storms!

[Ken711]

Does it look weakened any with Cuba's mountains?

[Do_For_Love]

Laura looks significantly better than this morning

[nutkin517]

Port Arthur mayor is issuing a mandatory evacuation beginning at 6 AM tomorrow.

[SoupBone]

Port Arthur mayor is issuing a mandatory evacuation beginning at 6 AM tomorrow.

Link?

[nutkin517]

Port Arthur mayor is issuing a mandatory evacuation beginning at 6 AM tomorrow.

Link?

Not sure how to quote Twitter on here, but it is from @JordanJamesTV.

[Nederlander]

Port Arthur mayor is issuing a mandatory evacuation beginning at 6 AM tomorrow.

Link?

https://t.co/cRlWVhgj9n

[supercane4867]

Two ~60kt SFMR readings. Not sure if they are legit.