ATL: LAURA - Models

[dantonlsu]

When does the EURO run again?

[catskillfire51]

Remind me, why are we looking at the NAM and ICON seriously again? Neither are used for track or intensity guidance, and for a good reason. Might as well post the NAVGEM too.

I don't think anyone is, more just looking for trends since we can't get any from any of the models

[Senobia]

Honestly, issuing evac warnings for everyone from houston to the panhandle would be best in the case it does go east or west

That would be a horrific idea.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Remind me, why are we looking at the NAM and ICON seriously again? Neither are used for track or intensity guidance, and for a good reason. Might as well post the NAVGEM too.

I don't think anyone is, more just looking for trends since we can't get any from any of the models

I saw the latest NAM and ICON runs being used to justify a trend towards a "weaker, further east" storm by some users a few pages back. Trends in the GFS, sure... but the 4k NAM and ICON? No.

[PTrackerLA]

Remind me, why are we looking at the NAM and ICON seriously again? Neither are used for track or intensity guidance, and for a good reason. Might as well post the NAVGEM too.

I don't think anyone is, more just looking for trends since we can't get any from any of the models

I saw the latest NAM and ICON runs being used to justify a trend towards a "weaker, further east" storm by some users a few pages back. Trends in the GFS, sure... but the 4k NAM and ICON? No.

ICON and NAM are terrible with TC's, but it's the models thread. Bottom line is all 12z models have shifted east so far.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1297932370310504448

[catskillfire51]

So far shift east on HMON as well

[bella_may]

Somehow the HMON slingshots it due north

[cheezyWXguy]

So far shift east on HMON as well

Still looks weird to me. Seems to be picking up on the center relocation, but moves it straight north. In reality, the center is moving west, if not wsw, according to radar.

[catskillfire51]

Somehow the HMON slingshots it due north

it corrected back

[MBryant]

Every few hours the forecast shifts either to the west or to the east of me. And we are always promised better resolution in the next batch of models. Can we say we just don't know?

[Stormcenter]

As I’ve been saying until Laura comes off of Cuba
I wouldn’t put much weight on model runs. In addition,
Marco is a joker card in all of this. IMO

[tarheelprogrammer]

HMON coming in weaker for sure, not sure it has a grip on the center though. It looks less defined than it really is on init.

[catskillfire51]

HMON coming in weaker for sure, not sure it has a grip on the center though. It looks less defined than it really is on init.

2mb weaker at 33 hours but seems to be slower which will give it more time over water

[BobHarlem]

Laura needs to clear the islands already, these models just have no clue.

[jabman98]

Local NBC affiliate in Houston, Channel 2, just showed their in-house RPM model, which puts Laura offshore of Galveston at 2 a.m. on Thursday as what looks like a fairly strong storm (didn't give intensity).

[bella_may]

Marco pt. 2?

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF initialized the center inland.

[Steve]

Remind me, why are we looking at the NAM and ICON seriously again? Neither are used for track or intensity guidance, and for a good reason. Might as well post the NAVGEM too.

I don't think anyone is, more just looking for trends since we can't get any from any of the models

I saw the latest NAM and ICON runs being used to justify a trend towards a "weaker, further east" storm by some users a few pages back. Trends in the GFS, sure... but the 4k NAM and ICON? No.

Usually. But take a wild guess at which model kept Isaias offshore of Florida except for a nip at the Cape. It wasn't the big guy models. So ICON hit that track fairly well throughout with maybe 1 or 2 throwaway runs in the days leading up to and past Florida. And not that it's a track issue, but which one of the ECMWF, GFS and ICON saw both Marco and Laura days before the other two?

Obviously no offense Kyle. But just as you are generalizing, I think people can come back on you and say that there is value to be had. Sometimes.

[HoustonFrog]

Laura needs to clear the islands already, these models just have no clue.

When should that happen?