ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Does it look weakened any with Cuba's mountains?

Last night it weakened a little bit but it looks like it’s organizing again.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Two ~60kt SFMR readings. Not sure if they are legit.

'
They're not legit, they were recorded in areas of very high rainfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

Two ~60kt SFMR readings. Not sure if they are legit.

Doesnt look like it. FL winds 11kt and 3"/hr rainfall rate.

[hershels]

There were two posts mentioning that the UKMET model updated and showed the track coming in further east then previous. Where could I find this?

[Ken711]

Does it look weakened any with Cuba's mountains?

Last night it weakened a little bit but it looks like it’s organizing again.

Thanks.

[Jr0d]

After getting a really bad hair cut from the Sierra Maestra's early this morning, Laura is starting to look like a storm again.

Still racing westward, might get another haircut from the Sierra del Rosarios later.

I feel like we really dodged another one in Key West. Cuba is acting like wall preventing any significant convection. Had the track skirted the north coast of Cuba, we would have been in for a rough day. It seems like Florida's deflector shield at full power so far this season.

Given how tenacious this storm has been despite the mountains, I won't be surprised if the bullish computer are correct.

[MBryant]

Port Arthur Mandatory evacuation is likely for low lying areas. There are plenty of those. My eldest son works for the Fire Department there.

A general evacuation seems unlikely at this point. But you never know with political figures these days.

ps I've been tuned into local radio and they haven't mentioned it.

[Portastorm]

There were two posts mentioning that the UKMET model updated and showed the track coming in further east then previous. Where could I find this?

It is in the LAURA models thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121182&start=3100

[nutkin517]

Port Arthur Mandatory evacuation is likely for low lying areas. There are plenty of those. My eldest son works for the Fire Department there.

A general evacuation seems unlikely at this point. But you never know with political figures these days.

ps I've been tuned into local radio and they haven't mentioned it.

He had already called for an evacuation of Sabine Pass and Pleasure Island for Marco. This evacuation is for the whole city.

[cajungal]

That is why I prefer late departure but middle of the night. Allows for track changes and intensity forecasts to be taken into account. It only takes one bungled evac attempt to change your whole perspective on what makes more sense.

I like the middle of the night thing, but we have a 2 yr old and a 1 yr old, so that's pretty difficult on my wife. Granted - getting stuck in hours upon hours of traffic would be equally as bad.

Trust me, when we evacuated during Rita stuck in traffic even with just two dogs was horrible. Cant imagine kids and the needed pee stops.

I have 2 large dogs plus a 6 year old with severe autism. Not being able to stop for food or bathroom. No way. I pray I never get in that situation. But living in SE Louisiana, it makes me nervous

[aspen]

Looks like Laura already has a partial eyewall.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Shell Mound]

To be honest, a track into Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA, would be the best-case scenario thus far. Such a path, besides avoiding Greater Houston and Galveston Bay, would also miss Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange, TX, as well as New Iberia/Morgan City, LA. Even with a large wind field, Laura would produce its worst storm surge over the least populated region of LA, while Southeast TX would be on the western side of the system. At this point in time a Category-4+ TC is looking rather unlikely, the trend is weaker and farther east, and a blend of available data would strongly suggest a landfall somewhere around Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA. In terms of impacts to life and property this would be the “least bad option,” even though some small communities would suffer greatly. At the end of the day Laura may not be worse than another Ike or Rita: locally significant, certainly, but far from a worst-case scenario, since Ike and Rita, however catastrophic, do exist as benchmarks, and we know that a Category-4+ with a wind field as large as Laura’s would be even more catastrophic, especially if it were to track closer to Houston/Galveston, the Golden Triangle, and/or Morgan City/New Iberia. Currently, however, the only sizeable urban area in the path looks to be Lake Charles, and that city is fortunately inland.

[Shell Mound]

It seems like Florida's deflector shield at full power so far this season.

So far Haiti and the western Dominican Republic have seen by far the worst effects from Laura, but have received the least media attention.

[aspen]

Pressure looks to be back down to 1002 mbar, and the center is WNW of the last fix.

[stormlover2013]

Did the center reform south ?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Appears to be just a hair south of the 11 AM advisory based on that last pass.

[cheezyWXguy]

To be honest, a track into Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA, would be the best-case scenario thus far. Such a path, besides avoiding Greater Houston and Galveston Bay, would also miss Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange, TX, as well as New Iberia/Morgan City, LA. Even with a large wind field, Laura would produce its worst storm surge over the least populated region of LA, while Southeast TX would be on the western side of the system. At this point in time a Category-4+ TC is looking rather unlikely, the trend is weaker and farther east, and a blend of available data would strongly suggest a landfall somewhere around Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA. In terms of impacts to life and property this would be the “least bad option,” even though some small communities would suffer greatly. At the end of the day Laura may not be worse than another Ike or Rita: locally significant, certainly, but far from a worst-case scenario, since Ike and Rita, however catastrophic, do exist as benchmarks, and we know that a Category-4+ with a wind field as large as Laura’s would be even more catastrophic, especially if it were to track closer to Houston/Galveston, the Golden Triangle, and/or Morgan City/New Iberia. Currently, however, the only sizeable urban area in the path looks to be Lake Charles, and that city is fortunately inland.

You seem to be ignoring the data that doesn’t fit your narrative. Ensembles so far put Houston in the crosshairs and ukmet and gfs are the equivalent of a category 4 when resolution is taken into account. This doesn’t even account for the fact that all of the models run so far do not have a handle on short term evolution and all have the center too far east to start.

[artist]

It seems like Florida's deflector shield at full power so far this season.

So far Haiti and the western Dominican Republic have seen by far the worst effects from Laura, but have received the least media attention.

 https://twitter.com/gasmuha/status/1297942609055436800

[KWT]

Pressure looks to be back down to 1002 mbar, and the center is WNW of the last fix.

Looks like it's tracking along the curve of Cuba just a little south. Some point it's going to cross Cuba again and end up into the gulf where the setup looks decent for strengthening.

Fully expecting a 120-130mph cane out of this at peak.