ATL: LAURA - Models

[Shell Mound]

Is a direction and speed at landfall something that could be noted? A Cameron landfall with a WNW direction is the exact path of AUDREY in 1957 which was a major destructive force in Orange.

Audrey was actually moving NNE at LF. The models show Laura heading generally NW or even NNW at landfall, given the influence of the approaching trough.

Furthermore, the fact that Laura will be curving into the westerlies and encounter increasing VWS, to not mention dry air, makes HWRF’s intensity dubious.

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF

[Frank P]

12z HMON landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/3H0S2mF.png

and that is HUGH shift EAST from the 06Z HMON... central/SW LA might put out a serious pucker alert with that run...

[tolakram]

IMO approach track seems straightforward so we need to watch where it crosses Cuba to determine where it ends up. It's usually just when we start to get some agreement that a wrench is throw in the works. 12Z euro will be very interesting to see.

[PTrackerLA]

So now it's the 06z Euro vs all the 12z guidance in Louisiana. Suspense is high for 12z run.

[jasons2k]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1297841859847364609

[Senobia]

12z HMON

https://i.imgur.com/LGI17KT.png

Are any other models jumping on board with this set up?

[NDG]

How about that 12z UKMET, it only shifted like 150 miles east, closer to King GFS

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init

[SoupBone]

How about that 12z UKMET, it only shifted like 150 miles east, closer to King GFS

I'm gonna be bald when this is over. These swings with a 72 hour landfall are maddening. Can we go back to a time when Euro reigned king? Seriously though, I'm really curious how the Euro shakes out this next run. Lots of focus on Cameron Parish, currently.

[tolakram]

12z HMON

https://i.imgur.com/LGI17KT.png

Are any other models jumping on board with this set up?

Hard to answer this question, trend is east in most of the latest runs. 12Z euro is running now.

[cheezyWXguy]

How about that 12z UKMET, it only shifted like 150 miles east, closer to King GFS

I'm gonna be bald when this is over. These swings with a 72 hour landfall are maddening. Can we go back to a time when Euro reigned king? Seriously though, I'm really curious how the Euro shakes out this next run. Lots of focus on Cameron Parish, currently.

I think we should go back to a time before we called any model "king" and just use them for what they're worth to form a consensus.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Watch the 12z ECMWF show an open wave into MS, just for full confusion.

[FixySLN]

12Z Euro init
https://i.imgur.com/gUgkkQe.png

That's already wrong.

[supercane4867]

12z euro initialization seems to be okay.

[davidiowx]

12Z Euro init
https://i.imgur.com/gUgkkQe.png

That's already wrong.

Not really.. It initiated in a pretty good spot.

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z Euro init
https://i.imgur.com/gUgkkQe.png

That's already wrong.

It actually seems pretty in line with where it was at 12z, so it might be ok.

[FixySLN]

12Z Euro init
https://i.imgur.com/gUgkkQe.png

That's already wrong.

Not really.. It initiated in a pretty good spot.

I mean, I could be looking at something wrong, I make plenty of mistakes, but isn't Laura already further SSW of that position during initialization?

[supercane4867]

That's already wrong.

Not really.. It initiated in a pretty good spot.

I mean, I could be looking at something wrong, I make plenty of mistakes, but isn't Laura already further SSW of that position during initialization?

Initial position of model is not real-time position.

[superfly]

That's already wrong.

Not really.. It initiated in a pretty good spot.

I mean, I could be looking at something wrong, I make plenty of mistakes, but isn't Laura already further SSW of that position during initialization?

It's WNW of the init position, which makes sense since this is for its location at12z.